Green foam of renewable energy
Driven by the upsurge of climate change, countries around the world pay more attention to renewable energy and emission reduction technologies. The so-called green industry stocks have become one of the hottest concept sectors in the stock market, which has triggered speculation of speculative funds.
According to the statistics of the International Renewable Energy Association, the average P/E ratio of listed companies in global solar in 2007 exceeded 100, which was four or five times that of the global stock market. The global total return index of new energy, which reflects the stock price changes of global renewable energy, has increased by 28 1.62% in the past five years, while the Morgan Stanley World Stock Composite Index and the World Energy Index have only increased by 52.26% and 95. 17% respectively. Among them, the market value of 10 renewable energy enterprises represented by CONERGY, Germany's largest solar energy enterprise, has increased by about 8 times in the past four years.
According to the global venture capital survey conducted by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, clean energy has been the first investment industry for respondents for two consecutive years. According to the statistics of American Clean Technology Group, in 2007, the global investment in renewable energy was $510.80 billion, an increase of 44% over the previous year and more than seven times that of six years ago. It is predicted that the global investment in renewable energy will double in 2008, reaching $654.38 billion.
Black Bubble of Carbon Emissions Trading In order to control domestic greenhouse gas emissions, many countries such as the European Union have established domestic and cross-regional carbon emissions trading systems, allowing enterprises and countries to freely buy and sell greenhouse gas emission quotas. Merrill Lynch's analysis report pointed out that the rapid growth of carbon emissions trading made carbon emission rights become a new virtual currency to some extent, which virtually increased the global money supply and aggravated the liquidity bubble. According to the statistics of Norwegian Point Carbon Company, the global carbon emissions trading volume in 2006 was about $30.4 billion, more than double the previous year. The Financial Times predicts that by 20 10, global carbon emissions trading will more than double, reaching $68.2 billion, and unregulated self-trading will also increase to more than $4 billion.
The colors of various economic bubbles that are blowing up are brighter and more attractive, and the potential harm will be far-reaching. Compared with the network and real estate industries, the development of renewable energy needs more investment, and the financial risk and policy risk of the industry are higher.
According to McKinsey & Company's statistics, the average venture capital of each renewable energy technology enterprise is about $65.438+0.4 million, and the medium-term investment is about $65.438+0.2 billion, which needs more infrastructure to support. According to the report of RAND Corporation, the whole field of renewable energy is still an infant industry, and it is difficult to compete with the traditional energy industry in the market at present. The cost of solar energy and wind power generation is still 3~ 10 times that of thermal power generation. Without mandatory regulations, these technologies simply cannot enter the market.
Unlike the Internet and real estate industries, the clean technology industry not only involves related enterprises and investors, but also many governments are deeply involved, providing financial and policy support. In order to use renewable energy, consumers also need to transform their own heating and electricity facilities in their cars and homes, and invest a lot of money. Once the bubble bursts, it will have a great social impact, affecting the government, enterprises, people and other levels, affecting finance, infrastructure, electricity and other related industries, and may lead to government finance and public crisis.
According to the estimation of ITULIP technology consulting company in the United States, the total amount of newly-added bubble assets will reach 4 trillion US dollars in the next five years, and will increase to 20 trillion US dollars by 2020. In contrast, the balance of real estate mortgage loans in the United States since 1990 is less than 10 trillion dollars, of which the total amount of subprime high-risk loans that triggered the subprime mortgage crisis is only 2 trillion dollars. Before the blue Internet bubble burst in the United States in 2000, the total market value of Nasdaq was only $6.7 trillion at its peak.
How is the bubble blown out? High international energy prices have stimulated a new economic bubble. In recent years, the prices of crude oil, coal, natural gas and other traditional energy sources have continued to rise rapidly, hitting record highs continuously. In this case, many traditional energy enterprises immediately transfer to renewable energy, especially the development of bioenergy with corn, soybeans and other crops as raw materials is particularly valued, even at the expense of reducing food supply and crowding out grain farmland. The International Monetary Fund's new World Economic Outlook clearly points out that the increasing demand for renewable energy such as biofuels has led to an accelerated increase in the prices of corn, soybeans and their alternative food crops.
According to statistics, in 2007, the demand for grain in the bioenergy manufacturing industry in the United States increased by 50% compared with the previous year, consuming1.1400 million tons of grain, accounting for 28% of the national grain output, of which about 1/2 of corn output was used for ethanol gasoline production, more than twice as much as in 2006. The report of Barclays Investment Bank pointed out that in order to promote biofuels, some energy companies are trying to control the construction scale of new refining facilities, and the lack of idle refining capacity is one of the main factors leading to high global oil prices.
The new economic bubble comes from climate change. At present, climate change has become one of the severe challenges facing the international community. It has become an important worldwide topic to deal with the threat that climate change may bring to mankind and promote the process of international emission reduction. This global upsurge in response to climate change has made the development and application of clean energy and emission reduction technologies a new economic hotspot and promoted the rapid development of related industries. However, it also leads to the upsurge of blind investment sentiment, which makes people too optimistic about the development prospects of related industries, especially renewable energy industries, and ignores or even ignores their investment risks, which overdraws the development potential of these emerging industries to some extent.
The new economic bubble is caused by speculative funds. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States led to the bursting of the bubbles in real estate and financial derivatives, which caused heavy losses to speculative hot money such as hedge funds and forced them to withdraw from real estate, network technology and finance, while renewable energy, emission reduction technology and food became their new prey. Where the market promises renewable energy, energy conservation and emission reduction, capital will keep pouring in. According to the statistics of the Wall Street Journal, the scale and quantity of fund products investing in renewable energy have doubled in the past two years. About 80% venture capital funds in Silicon Valley in the United States have shifted from information technology to renewable energy and emission reduction technologies. The development of carbon emissions trading has also spawned a large number of investment banks specializing in carbon emissions business, providing services for speculative hot money speculation on carbon emissions rights.
Beware that the economic bubble turns into a bubble economy. This year marks the 30th anniversary of China's reform and opening up.
The journey of 30 years is not smooth, and agricultural reform and development have played a major leading role in reform and opening up in various fields. Solving the "three rural issues" is always a breakthrough to get out of the predicament and push the reform and opening up to a deeper level.
In view of the increasingly severe internal and external economic environment, we should focus on how to better support the development of agriculture, rural areas and farmers, continue to focus on developing agricultural production, and vigorously increase the supply of important agricultural products such as grain and meat. We should take effective measures to strictly control the export of grain and oil products. Strengthen border trade management and crack down on grain smuggling and export. Through positive publicity, it accurately and comprehensively reflects the development of China's grain production, and the country has sufficient grain stocks and sufficient market supply to stabilize consumers' psychological expectations. Control the development of bioenergy with corn, soybeans and other food crops as raw materials. Avoid over-exploitation of bioethanol by local or enterprises in pursuit of green GDP, and resolutely ensure food supply and cultivated land area. Through policies to guide the transfer of completed bioenergy projects to non-food raw materials projects.
Establishing Scientific Outlook on Development as an important guiding principle for China's economic and social development and a major strategic thought that Socialism with Chinese characteristics must adhere to and implement is a major theoretical contribution of the Party's seventieth Congress. Actively developing renewable energy and emission reduction technologies is an important means to achieve scientific and sustainable development goals. Appropriate bubbles can promote the rapid start of industries, guide industrial investment and stimulate commercial competition, but it is necessary to strengthen macro-control and supervision, make a fuss about establishing and perfecting institutional mechanisms, and make efforts to establish standardized institutional policies to effectively prevent excessive development of bubbles.
It is necessary to strengthen the risk supervision measures for foreign investment of financial institutions in China, especially when investing in high-risk industries such as renewable energy and related financial assets. While continuing to encourage and welcome foreign investment in renewable energy and other industries, it is necessary to strengthen the review of foreign investment in renewable energy and emission reduction technology industries, raise the threshold for entry, and especially be wary of speculative behavior of overseas hot money for the purpose of obtaining short-term high returns.
The report of the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward that we should "give full play to the basic role of the market in resource allocation from the system". This is an urgent requirement of "deepening the understanding of the laws of the socialist market economy" and an important task of "perfecting the socialist market economic system". The government should give priority to providing policy support and guidance to renewable energy and emission reduction technology industries, and avoid directly participating in relevant investments and operations. The experience of Europe and the United States and other countries proves that excessive government participation in market operation has contributed to the formation of bubble economy to some extent. The role of the government should focus on strengthening the legislation and enforcement of the green economy, constantly improving the intellectual property protection of renewable energy and emission reduction technologies, supporting innovative research and development, accelerating personnel training, and providing a good legal system, policy environment, technology and personnel support for industrial development.
In recent years, China has obtained a certain amount of emission reduction funds by participating in the emissions trading of the United Nations clean development mechanism. We should continue to steadily promote related party transactions under the framework of this mechanism and strictly regulate the use and execution of funds.