We are a comprehensive and sustainable institution that monitors the global economy in the whole market, and track the 15 economies that account for more than the global GDP under the framework of the debt-benefiting cycle.
After reviewing the economic history of China and the United States after World War II, our main job is to keep track of the high-frequency data of global 15 economies under the framework of the debt cycle. This 15 economy accounts for more than 3/4 of the global GDP, including: the United States, the euro zone, Britain, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, BRICS, Mexico and Argentina.
This report is a summary of the main economic data of relevant economies in February. On the whole, although emerging economies continue to weaken, the range is moderate, and development drives global improvement; The United States, Europe and Britain have improved, while China and Japan have weakened.
The following is the text:
First, the United States: improved.
February data show that the US economic performance has improved.
(1) The comprehensive PMI of the United States improved in February. In February, the two PMI data of ISM and Markit in the United States showed the same trend, namely, the deterioration of manufacturing industry, the improvement of service industry and the improvement of comprehensive PMI. In February, the US ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 54.2, with the previous value of 56.6; In February, the PMI of ISM service industry in the United States recorded 59.7, with the previous value of 56.7. In February, the PMI of Markit manufacturing in the United States recorded 53.0, with the previous value of 54.9. In February, the PMI of Markit service industry in the United States recorded 56.0, with the previous value of 54.2. The comprehensive PMI of the United States recorded 55.5 in February, with the previous value of 54.4.
(2) Retail sales deteriorated in February, and consumer confidence rose. In February, the consumer confidence index of Michigan was 93.8, with the previous value of 9 1. 2. 2. In February, disposable personal income's annualized rate was 15.9 trillion US dollars, and personal consumption expenditure was 14.2 trillion US dollars, both higher than the previous values. In February, retail sales decreased by 0.2% month on month, while the previous value increased by 0.7% month on month.
(3) In February, the unemployment rate rose and fell, the number of new non-agricultural jobs decreased, and the labor participation rate was stable. In February, the number of non-agricultural employees in the United States increased by 33,000, with the previous value of 3 1. 1.000. The unemployment rate in the United States in February was 3.8%, and the previous value was 4.0%; The labor force participation rate was 63.2%, and the previous value was 63.2%.
(4) CPI and PPI in February were lower than the previous values. In February, the CPI increased by 1.5%, and the previous value was 1.6%. In February, PPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 0.4% year-on-year.
(5) Imports and exports rose in an all-round way in February, with a deficit of $49.4 billion, and the previous deficit was adjusted to $5 1 1 billion.
(6) The overall manufacturing industry improved in February. In February, all manufacturing shipments, durable goods shipments and total industrial output indexes were higher than the previous values, and the industrial capacity utilization rate was lower than the previous values. Production and retail inventories rose.
(7) In February, the sales of new and second-hand houses deteriorated in an all-round way, and house prices rose month-on-month. In February, the sales of new homes increased by 4.9% month-on-month, and the previous value increased by 8.2% month-on-month. In February, the contracted sales index of existing homes decreased by 1.0%, while the previous value increased by 4.3%. In February, US house prices rose month on month.
(8) In February, the yield of national debt fell, the credit spread fell, the dollar index rose, the panic index fell, the growth rate of national debt balance fell year-on-year, and international capital flowed out of the United States. At the end of February, the assets of the Federal Reserve were $4.0 trillion, lower than the previous value; At the end of February, the size of US Treasury bonds was $ 22. 1 trillion, up 6.0% year-on-year, while the previous value was $22.0 trillion, up 7.3% year-on-year. In February, the net outflow of American international capital was $21600 million, and the previous value was revised to $0/43.7 billion. In February, the average yield of US 10 national debt was 2.68%, and the previous value was 2.7 1%. In February, the average credit spread in the United States was 4.06%, and the previous value was 4.58%; The average value of the US dollar index in February was 96.5, and the previous value was 96.0; The average value of S&P panic index in February was 15.2, and the previous value was 19.6.
Second, Europe, Britain and Japan: Europe and Britain are progressing, but they are weakening.
February data show that Europe and Britain have improved to some extent, while Japan continues to be weak.
(1) In February, the comprehensive PMI of Europe and Britain improved, while that of Japan deteriorated. In February, the manufacturing PMI of the euro zone was lower than the previous value, and the comprehensive PMI driven by the service industry was higher than the previous value; The manufacturing PMI recorded 49.3, with the previous value of 50.5; The service industry PMI recorded 52.8, with the previous value of 51.2; The comprehensive PMI is 5 1.9, and the previous value is 5 1.0. In February, the British manufacturing PMI was lower than the previous value, and the service industry drove the comprehensive PMI to be higher than the previous value. The manufacturing PMI recorded 52. 1, with the previous value of 52.8; The service industry PMI recorded 5 1.3, with the previous value of 50.1; The comprehensive PMI recorded 5 1.5, with the previous value of 50.3.2. In February, the PMI of Japan's service industry was higher than the previous value, and the manufacturing industry dragged down the comprehensive PMI. The manufacturing PMI recorded 48.9, with the previous value of 50.3; The service industry PMI recorded 52.3, with the previous value of 51.6; The comprehensive PMI recorded 50.7, with the previous value of 50.9.
(2) In February, the foreign trade between Europe and Britain improved in an all-round way, and Japan was generally stable. In February, the export of the euro zone increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 2.5%; In February, the euro zone imports increased by 4.0% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 3.2%. In February, British exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 4.1%; In February, British imports increased by 15.3% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 10.7%. 2 Japan's exports decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, and the previous value decreased by 8.4% year-on-year; In February, Japanese imports decreased by 6.6% year on year, and the previous value decreased by 0.8% year on year.
(3) In February, the unemployment rate in the euro zone was stable, while that in Britain rose and that in Japan fell. In February, the unemployment rate in the euro zone was 7.8%, and the previous value was 7.8%; The unemployment rate in Britain was 2.9% in February, and the previous value was 2.8%. Japan's unemployment rate in February was 2.3%, with the previous value of 2.5%.
(4) Inflation in Europe, Britain and Japan rose overall in February. In February, the CPI of the euro zone increased by 1.5% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by1.4%; In February, the PPI of the euro zone increased by 3.0% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 2.9%. In February, the CPI in the UK increased by 1.9% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 1.8%. In February, the British PPI rose by 2.2% year-on-year, and the previous value rose by 2. 1%. In February, Japan's CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, and the previous value rose by 0.2%; In February, Japan's PPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, and the previous value rose by 0.6%.
(5) In February, the yields of European, British and Japanese government bonds 10 fell across the board. At the end of February, the debt scale of the euro zone government was 8.2 trillion euros, up 2.2% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 2.3%; The assets of the European Central Bank were 4.7 trillion euros, and at the end of the period, it was 5.4 trillion dollars. In February, the average yield of euro zone 10 bonds was 0. 17%, and the previous value was 0.25%. In February, the British government debt was10.8 trillion pounds, up 6.4% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 3.6%. February 10 Average yield of British government bonds 1.24%, previous value 1.32%. At the end of February, the scale of Japanese government debt was115 trillion yen, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, slightly higher than the previous value; The assets of the Bank of Japan were 562 trillion yen, and the ending period was 5. 1 trillion dollars. The average yield of Japanese government bonds in February 10 is -0.02%, and the previous value is 0.0 1%.
(6) In February, the retail and manufacturing industries in Europe and Britain improved in an all-round way, while Japan deteriorated in an all-round way. In February, the retail index of the euro zone increased by 2.8% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 2.2%; In February, the industrial production index of the euro zone decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, and the previous value decreased by 0.7%. In February, the British retail index increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 4.2%; In February, the British industrial production index increased by 0.2% year-on-year, and the previous value decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. In February, Japanese commercial sales decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, and the previous value decreased by 0.7%; Japan's industrial production index in February decreased by 1. 1% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 0.7%. In February, Japan's capacity utilization index decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, and the previous value decreased by 0.2% year-on-year.
Third, China: slightly weakened.
During1-February, the overall macro data weakened, and the performance was worse than that in 65438+February. In terms of price, since the end of 10, the domestic South China Composite Index has fluctuated and rebounded. Combined with the domestic and foreign spot commodity price data, the bottom of this round has basically formed, and the spot performance has lagged behind. In February, the overall performance of real estate data remained weak. It should be noted that the real estate inventory continued to rise 12 months (March 20 18-2065438+February 2009). At present, we have basically determined that the bottom of the real sector debt growth rate appears at 20181month, and the bottom of the current real economy growth rate is likely to appear in the first quarter of this year. Judging from the available data, if 1-February is analyzed separately, the economic performance in February is basically the same as1,which is basically weak and quite weak. Judging from the monthly data,1-February has probably formed the bottom of this round of economy, waiting for the data confirmation in March.
(1)1-The overall economic data in February weakened.
*1-February is better than 65438+February. Consumption, investment, import, crude steel output, automobile output, ethylene output.
*1-February's performance is worse than that of 65438+February. Urban survey unemployment rate, industrial added value, CPI, PPI, export, power generation, new housing starts, commercial housing sales, land purchase area, automobile sales, cement production, 10 production of various non-ferrous metals, oil production, natural gas production and coal production.
(2) In February, the South China Composite Index and CRB Index both rose month on month.
(3) In February, the inventory of real estate, automobiles and steel increased year-on-year, while coal decreased.
In February, the area of commercial housing for sale was 520 million square meters, down 10.6% year-on-year, and down110% year-on-year. In February, the building construction area was 6.75 billion square meters, up by 6.8% year-on-year, and increased by 5.2% year-on-year at the end of 65438+February. In February, the automobile inventory was 1.09 million, down 9.9% year-on-year, and 1.6% at the end of the year. At the end of February, the total inventory of major steel products in China increased by 1 1.9% and by 0.8% at the end of 12. At the end of February, steel inventories of key enterprises increased by 2.2% year-on-year, and decreased by 4.9% year-on-year at the end of 12. At the end of February, the national blast furnace operating rate was 65.8%, higher than 64.9% at the end of 65438+February, and the profitability of steel mills was 73.0%, higher than 69.9% at the end of 65438+February. At the end of February, the coal stocks of Qinhuangdao Port and six major power generation groups recorded-12.0% and 23.2% respectively, and -9.8% and 48.0% respectively at the end of 12.
Fourth, emerging: the whole is slightly weak.
February data showed that the performance of emerging economies (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, India, Russia, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and South Africa) was slightly weaker than the previous value.
(1) In February, the service PMI of emerging economies was lower than the previous value, and the comprehensive PMI driven by manufacturing was the same as the previous value.
In February, the manufacturing PMI of emerging economies recorded 50.6, with the previous value of 49.5; The service industry PMI recorded 52. 1, with the previous value of 52.9; The comprehensive PMI recorded 5 1.6, and the previous value was 5 1.6.
In terms of emerging economies, the PMI of manufacturing and service industries in India and Brazil in February was higher than the previous value, both exceeding 50. Russia's manufacturing PMI in February was lower than the previous value, but the comprehensive PMI driven by the service industry was higher than the previous value, both exceeding 50. In February, China Caixin manufacturing industry was higher than the previous value, and the service industry dragged down the comprehensive PMI below the previous value. The manufacturing PMI was lower than 50 for the third consecutive month, and both the service industry and the comprehensive PMI were higher than 50. The PMI of mining manufacturing and service industries in China was lower than the previous value, among which the PMI of manufacturing industry was lower than 50 for the third consecutive month, and the PMI of service industry and comprehensive PMI were both higher than 50. Singapore's comprehensive PMI in February was lower than the previous value, falling below 50. South Africa's comprehensive PMI in February was higher than the previous value, rising above 50. Malaysia's manufacturing PMI in February was lower than the previous value, below 50. Indonesia and Mexico's manufacturing PMI in February was higher than the previous value, both above 50.
(2) The year-on-year growth rate of CPI in February was higher than the previous value.
In February, the CPI growth rate was higher than the previous value in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, India, Russia, Brazil, South Africa and Argentina.
Economies whose CPI growth rate was lower than the previous value in February included Indonesia and Mexico.
In February, Malaysia continued to deflate, and the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the previous value decreased by 0.7% year-on-year.
Argentina's CPI growth rate in February was as high as 5 1.3%, higher than the previous value of 49.3%.
(3) The year-on-year growth rate of M2 in February was higher than the previous value.
In February, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was higher than the previous value, including Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, India, South Africa and Argentina.
In February, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was lower than the previous value, including Malaysia, Brazil and Mexico.
In February, Russia's M2 increased by 9.9% year-on-year, which was the same as the previous value.
In February, the year-on-year growth of M2 in India was 16.5%, and the previous value was 15.0%. Recently, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in Argentina is relatively high, reaching 33.2% in February, higher than the previous value of 25.6%.
(4) The overall foreign trade weakened in February.
Economies with positive year-on-year growth in imports and exports in February included Singapore, India, South Africa and Mexico. The economies with negative growth year-on-year include Malaysia, Indonesia and Brazil.
Imports and exports in February were better than the previous value, including Argentina; Economies weaker than the previous value include Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Brazil and Mexico.
(5) The industrial performance in February was slightly better than the previous value.
Economies with positive year-on-year industrial growth in February included Singapore, Malaysia, India, Russia, Brazil and South Africa. Among them, Singapore, Russia, Brazil and South Africa are better than the previous value, while Malaysia and India are weaker than the previous value.
Economies with negative year-on-year industrial growth in February include Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico and Argentina; Among them, Mexico and Argentina are better than the previous value, and Thailand and Indonesia are weaker than the previous value.
(6) Retail sales were stable in February.
Economies with positive year-on-year growth in retail sales in February included Thailand, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, South Africa and Mexico. Among them, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil and Mexico are better than the previous values, while Thailand and South Africa are weaker than the previous values.
Economies with negative year-on-year retail sales in February, including Singapore and Argentina, were all weaker than the previous value.
(7) The overall appreciation of the exchange rate against the US dollar in February.
On a monthly basis, among the 10 emerging economies we observed, 6 economies appreciated against the US dollar in February, with Thailand (appreciation 1.60%) having the largest appreciation, followed by Russia (appreciation 1.40%). There have been four devaluations against the US dollar, of which Argentina has the largest devaluation (2.25%). Compared with the previous value, the economies with increased foreign exchange reserves in February included Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil and Mexico, while the economies with decreased foreign exchange reserves included Singapore, India, South Africa and Argentina.
(8) In February 10, the yield of government bonds continued to be lower than the previous value.
On a monthly basis, the yields of government bonds in eight economies, including Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, South Africa (9-year South African government bonds) and Mexico, decreased in February compared with that in February. India and other 1 economies, the yield of national debt in February 10 is higher than that in February 10 65438.
(Article source: Xuanyan Global Macro)