A quantitative analysis of structural adjustment and economic growth
1. The traditional agricultural economy has been transformed into an industrial economic system with Tibetan characteristics with five pillar industries as the main body. Before the peaceful liberation, Tibet's industry was dominated by traditional ethnic handicrafts, adopting the family workshop production mode, and its products were mainly to meet the needs of the region. There are no industrial production enterprises in the modern sense except the Tibetan coin factory, ordnance repair shop and the small hydropower station in Dodigou, Lhasa, which were set up by the local government in Tibet in the 1930s and 1940s. Strictly speaking, when 195 1 was peacefully liberated, the modern industry in our region was basically blank. After the peaceful liberation, the industrial structure has been greatly improved while the economic aggregate has grown rapidly. 1998, there were 475 industrial enterprises above township level in our district. The original value of fixed assets of state-owned industrial enterprises increased from almost zero to 2.82 billion yuan, and the total industrial output value increased from 43 million yuan in 1959 to166 billion yuan, an increase of 38 times. Modern industry is from scratch, from small to large.
2. Disrupting the industrial structure and promoting the development of the tertiary industry. Since the reform and opening up, under the guidance of the policy of "developing the primary industry steadily, focusing on the secondary industry and vigorously developing the tertiary industry", while vigorously carrying out production and construction, taking into account the improvement of people's material and cultural living standards, we have begun to attach importance to the development of light industry and tertiary industry, which has promoted the further optimization of the industrial structure in our region. From 1979 to 1998, the added value of the primary industry increased by 5. 1% annually, the secondary industry increased by 7.2% annually and the tertiary industry increased by 14.8% annually. While the primary industry is developing steadily, the secondary and tertiary industries are developing rapidly. The industrial structure of the first, second and third industries changed from 50: 28: 22 in 1978 to 65438+32: 24: 44 in 0999. The tertiary industry has grown substantially, and the industrial structure has changed from "123" to "3 12". The traditional economic model of agriculture and animal husbandry is being broken and the optimization of industrial structure has been promoted. 1999 GDP exceeded 1000 billion, which is five times higher than 1978 growth/kloc-0. Calculated at comparable prices, it increased by 8.8% on average from 1978+0998, of which 199654.
According to statistical analysis, the correlation coefficients between GDP and the primary, secondary and tertiary industries are 0.979, 0.976 and 0.995 respectively, which are highly correlated. This shows that the development of any industry will certainly promote the growth of GDP to a great extent, but the tertiary industry contributes the most to GDP, followed by the primary industry and the secondary industry. According to the statistical data, GDP as the explained variable GDPX and tertiary industry as the explained variable X are used for regression analysis, that is, the relationship between them is estimated by the least square method, and relevant statistical tests are carried out, and the regression equation is as follows:
GDPX=4.4 1+2.27X
Through F-test and T-test, when the significance level is 95%, the degree of freedom is 20, and the critical value T0.025=2.356, the sum of squares of regression is 165 17, and the determining coefficient R=0.99, which shows that the regression equation has a high degree of fitting and the explanatory variables have a high degree of explanation, that is, the tertiary industry has a high degree of GDP growth. However, there are many factors that affect GDP growth, such as investment, consumption, import and export, labor productivity and so on. , so it is estimated that there will be some deviation. But we can't deny that every increase in the output value of the tertiary industry 1 yuan will promote its GDP growth by 2.27 yuan. Therefore, the tertiary industry is still an important factor affecting GDP.
3. Coordinated development from "heavy industry and light industry" to light and heavy industries. From the democratic reform to 1978+09, due to the deviation of guiding ideology and institutional reasons, the economic development overemphasized the importance of heavy industry, which made the industrial structure enter a serious "heavy" track. 1959, the proportion of light and heavy industries is 4: 96. The long-term backwardness and slow development of light industry have led to the long-term failure to improve people's lives, and consumer goods are extremely short of medical care and medicine. At that time, most commodity certificates were supplied. Since the reform and opening up, with the adjustment of the relationship between accumulation and consumption, production and life, the pace of light industry development has accelerated, and the proportion of light and heavy industries has gradually coordinated and stabilized. From 1959 to 1998, the total output value of light industry increased at an average annual rate of 12.37%, and that of heavy industry increased at an average annual rate of 1.8%. The proportion of light industry is 10 percentage point faster than that of industry, and the proportion of light and heavy industries has changed from 4: 96 of 1959 to 65438+. In light industry, medical materials and food industry have developed rapidly, accounting for 8%, 7% and 4% of the total industrial output value respectively. In heavy industry, extractive industry and non-metallic mineral products have developed into two major industrial industries in our region, accounting for 23.4% and 19.6% respectively. The power industry and the art industry developed rapidly, accounting for 9.8% and 8.5% of the output value respectively. At the same time, the wood processing and printing industry has also been further developed, and the internal structure of the industry has been continuously improved and increasingly reasonable.
4. The internal structure of agriculture has changed from one-sided emphasis on "grain as the key link" to all-round development of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. For a long time from peaceful liberation to reform and opening up, due to one-sided emphasis on "taking grain as the key link", the development of agriculture outside planting industry was extremely slow. 1959, the sown area of grain crops in the planting industry was as high as 95.3%, and the agricultural output value of our region was1440,000 yuan, accounting for 34% and 66% respectively in agriculture and animal husbandry. By 1978, the sown area of grain crops was 93.6%, and the proportion of output value of forestry and animal husbandry was 0.4% and 59.9% respectively. Since the reform and opening up, diversified management and various industries in rural areas have been valued and supported, the proportion of food crops in planting industry has dropped significantly, and the proportion of forestry and fishery in total agricultural output value has increased significantly. By 1998, the sown area of grain crops decreased to 87%, oil crops increased from 4.7% to 7.4%, and other cash crops increased from 1978 to 5.6%. In the total agricultural output value, the output value of forestry and fishery increased from 0.4% and 0 to 2. 1% and 0. 1% respectively. In the total rural social output value, the proportion of agricultural output value decreased from 90.8% in 1985 to 90. 1% in 1988, and the proportion of rural non-agricultural output value increased from 9.2% in 1985 to 9.9%. The primary industry has developed from a single agriculture and animal husbandry economy to a diversified economy of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and the secondary and tertiary industries in rural areas, with township enterprises and diversified businesses as the main body, have flourished. The continuous optimization of agricultural internal structure and crop distribution has promoted the continuous enhancement of agricultural production capacity. By 1998, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery reached 4.238 billion yuan, which was five times higher than 1959 at comparable prices, with an average annual growth rate of 4.7%.
5. From neglecting or even restricting some service industries to vigorously promoting the development of the tertiary industry. Before the reform and opening up, our region paid more attention to the development of material production, and not only ignored the activities of so-called "intangible production fields" such as finance and insurance, real estate and social services, but sometimes severely restricted them. Until 1978, commerce, transportation and post and telecommunications were still the main components of the tertiary industry. Since the reform and opening up, especially after the central government's decision on accelerating the development of the tertiary industry was issued, the tertiary industry has received unprecedented attention and development. Traditional industries such as commerce, transportation, posts and telecommunications have been consolidated and further developed, and tertiary industries such as finance, insurance, real estate, information consulting, tourism and social services have flourished. The output value of the tertiary industry increased from 1.978 to/.44 billion yuan to 1.998 to 3.963 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 1.8%, and the growth rate continued to exceed that of the primary and secondary industries.
The above-mentioned changes in the industrial structure of our region show that after the 40th anniversary of democratic reform, especially the development and exploration in the past 20 years of reform and opening up, we have basically found a road suitable for the industrialization and economic restructuring of our region, and the economic structure and economic growth quality have been adjusted and improved in development. However, the problem of unreasonable industrial structure in our region is still very prominent, which is embodied in the fact that the primary industry is extremely heavy, the secondary industry is extremely light and the tertiary industry is underdeveloped. Judging from the added value structure of three industries and the situation of employees, agriculture and service industry in our region occupy the main part of the national economy, and industry is only in a subordinate position. The industrial structure presents a V-shaped structure, showing the characteristics of agricultural economy in the primary stage of industrialization.
The history of industrial structure changes has left us with profound and valuable opinions: first, the adjustment of industrial structure can be divided into passive adjustment and active adjustment, and only paying attention to the total expansion and ignoring the timely fine-tuning of industrial structure will often lead to greater passive economic adjustment and bring greater losses; Second, the process of industrialization and the evolution of industrial structure need the cooperation of market economy system, and a high degree of planning system can hardly promote the high efficiency of resource allocation and the benign development of industrial structure; Third, to adjust and optimize the industrial structure, it is difficult to realize the rationalization and optimization of the industrial structure by adhering to the all-round opening policy, not insisting on opening to the outside world and not paying attention to improving the quality of opening to the outside world.
Second, some thoughts on formulating Tibet's industrial policy
History has turned a new page, and the industrialization process and rationalization of industrial structure in our region have also stood at the starting line of the new century. Promoting industrial optimization and upgrading is the fundamental measure to promote economic development and improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth, and it is also one of the key points in implementing the strategy of developing the western region. It is an urgent and arduous historical task to take advantage of the rare opportunity of western development to change the imbalance of industrial structure in our region, gradually complete the rationalization task, and realize the good situation of total growth and structural adjustment to promote the continuous optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.
First of all, we should recognize the advantages and disadvantages of industrial development in our region, abandon the traditional mode of homeopathic development of primary, secondary and tertiary industries according to our special internal and external environment, actively rely on the implementation of the strategy of developing the western region, give full play to Tibet's resource advantages and policy advantages, take the market as the guide, rely on science and technology, take reform as the driving force, take high-tech and technological innovation as the means, and take "expanding the scale of the tertiary industry and gradually upgrading" as the core. The basic ideas for the adjustment and development of industrial structure in our region should be: develop the primary industry stably, focus on the secondary industry, accelerate the development of the tertiary industry, moderately advance the development of basic industries, speed up the pace of development, raise the starting point of development, gradually change the current V-shaped industrial structure, adopt an unconventional, long-span and leap-forward development model, realize the stable and coordinated development of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and the economic structure is basically reasonable and the economic growth mode is obviously improved.
In the process of realizing the cross-century development goal, the industrial structure of our region faces several major contradictions and challenges: First, the contradiction between the production structure and the resource structure. Resources include natural resources and social resources. From the relationship between production structure and natural resources, the economy of our region has not yet got rid of extensive management, with high input and low output, high accumulation and low efficiency, and serious waste of resources; Judging from the relationship between production structure and social resource structure, the construction funds in our region basically depend on the state, and its own hematopoietic capacity is weak, and the contradiction between labor surplus and rationalization of industrial structure is prominent. The second is the contradiction between production structure and demand structure. Small industries in our region are incomplete, and the problem of overproduction is more prominent. However, the repeated construction and low-level expansion of some production industries are serious, which leads to the contradiction between the low level and low quality of the existing industrial structure and the gradually changing demand structure. Thirdly, the industrial structure of our region is low in technology and the product competitiveness is not strong. Fourth, the mechanism of survival of the fittest, factor flow and enterprise restructuring has not really been established. Survival of the fittest, factor flow and enterprise restructuring are the only way to adjust industrial structure under the condition of market economy. However, at this stage, due to the lack of supporting reforms in all aspects, it is difficult to dismount difficult industries and cultivate emerging industries, and it is difficult to overcome the "big and complete" and "small and complete" in the organizational structure of enterprises, which will seriously affect the rationalization of industrial structure.
Looking ahead, difficulties and opportunities coexist. Our region should formulate future industrial policies as soon as possible and take corresponding measures to give our region more initiative in economic growth and structural adjustment. The following aspects should be paid attention to in the adjustment of cross-century strategic industrial structure in our region:
1. On the basis of scientifically forecasting the changes of resources and environment, market demand inside and outside the region and various production factors, and according to the principle of market economy, plan the direction of industrial structure adjustment;
2, the formulation of industrial policy should pay attention to the coordination and preliminary examination between enterprises, departments, enterprises and the government. Industrial policy should focus on the rationalization of industrial structure, adhere to the all-round opening policy, and take technological upgrading as the main goal;
3. Weaken the interests of regions and departments, break the barriers of factor flow between regions, industries and ownership, and realize the survival of the fittest and the reorganization of enterprise structure;
4. Vigorously develop high-tech and information industries, accelerate the transformation of traditional industries, and focus on cultivating pillar industries and new economic growth points;
5. Implement the strategy of resource transformation, actively promote the strategy of "developing Tibet through science and education", transform the resource advantages of our region into economic advantages, accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements into real productive forces, and increase the contribution share of science and technology to economic growth.
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