Before answering this question, let's analyze several important characteristics of the current market:
First: the house price is beyond the affordability of the just-needed family.
Everyone must have a deep understanding of this. House prices have risen significantly since last year. Maybe the seller saw the house today and paid a deposit, and the seller will go back on his word tomorrow. The increase in house prices is enough to offset the liquidated damages. During that time, many sellers defaulted. The direct impact of rising house prices on buyers is the increase in costs. In the past, the same down payment ratio was fixed at 600,000 down payment, and jumped directly to 700,000 after the price increase. The extra down payment is even equivalent to a family's annual income.
However, with the rising house prices, people who want to buy a house are still scrambling to enter the market. One of the important reasons is the market demand. Take Beijing as an example. 20 1 1, the new article 8 was promulgated. By 20 16, it is exactly five years, and a considerable number of families who just need it meet the conditions for buying a house. Newcomers buy the first suite, change rooms for improvement, and a large number of demands are released.
Second: the differentiation between cities is obvious.
In addition, the market differentiation between cities is becoming more and more obvious. While the property market in hot cities is booming, the inventory problem in small cities with poor qualifications is still very serious. It is precisely because of this that the policy of "policy by city" will be adopted later. One-size-fits-all approach is no longer suitable for the current property market, including down payment, loan interest rate, purchase qualification and so on. The requirements of hot cities are different, but the purpose is only one-to curb investment demand and let the house purchase return to residence.
Interestingly, friends often ask backstage: Is a city suitable for buying a house? However, Mr. Rong often has only one answer: if it is just needed, as long as there is demand and the funds on hand allow, you can buy it. If you invest, forget it. The current environment is aimed at investors with impure motives. The "impure motive" here refers to people who want to get rich overnight through the bonus of short-term rise in house prices. In some people's minds, there are still "house prices"
Third, housing prices in some small cities have "inflated".
The scene of the property market is really changing day by day. Last year, the sales office was still crowded, and the seller took the initiative. This year, it became an intermediary to withdraw stores, and buyers waited and saw, becoming a buyer's market. Interestingly, however, in the first half of the year, some small cities outside the tenth line began to see rising house prices. Taking the latest housing price data released by the National Bureau of Statistics as an example, Bengbu, Beihai and Zhanjiang were among the top gainers. It must be said that the rise of small cities is suspected of bluffing. First-and second-tier cities cooled down, and third-and fourth-tier cities were affected by demand spillover, and then regulatory policies in line with big cities were introduced. However, small cities outside the 10th Line have neither population inflow nor big cities.
The rise of housing prices in China is largely affected by the relationship between supply and demand, and the population will only flow to high-quality cities with more resources and opportunities. Everyone knows that "man struggles upwards". However, in addition to the four first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, plus 15 quasi-first-tier cities, there are only 19 "quality" cities in one city. These cities are not as good as the tenth-tier small cities in terms of resources and industrial development, and their housing price rise is just a drama of some real estate enterprises or intermediaries grabbing houses.
Fourth: the main force of buying a house has reached the handover period.
In the past, 80 s and 70 s were the main force to buy a house. In the past two years, we can often see many post-90 s figures in the housing market. According to statistics, the earliest post-90s generation has reached the age of marriage and entrepreneurship, and the demand for buying a house has gradually emerged. More importantly, the post-90s generation has caught up with the development of mobile media. As the "new main force of buying a house", we can see a lot of news about buying a house on various media mobile phone clients. Judging the reliability of information has become a new problem for buyers.
The psychological expectation of buyers is the key point that affects house prices.
Knowing the current situation of the property market, let's get down to business and talk about what determines the house price. From the macro conditions of population, policy and development mentioned above, we can see some subtleties: the psychological expectation of buyers for housing prices is influenced by information about population and policy from outside, and the result of buying a house further affects housing prices. In last year's media reports, you can often see articles with the following titles:
Let's recall that the favorite keyword used by the media at that time was: 3000 people robbed 900 suites in a real estate, and 2000 suites were sold out that day. What salespeople and intermediaries say most to buyers is: several people have taken a fancy to this suite, and they will be bought by others if they don't buy it, or the landlord will raise the price by hundreds of thousands in a few days ... Even the usual streets and parties often jump to the topic of the house, giving people an urgent atmosphere as a whole. When the surrounding information is slightly exaggerated by the media and spread with scary headlines, it deeply affects the psychological expectations of buyers for housing prices and will rise in the future. Even after the introduction of policy restrictions, there are still a few people who are optimistic about housing prices. The survey report on urban depositors in the second quarter of this year released by the central bank shows that for the next quarter, 3 1.2% residents expect house prices to rise, which is close to 30%.
The rise of house prices-the information of price increase is spread-people panic buying houses-further stimulates the rise of house prices, so they are brainwashed repeatedly, and the psychological expectation of buyers becomes a catalyst to boost the rise of house prices. As long as we change everyone's expectations of housing prices, we can control the rise and fall of housing prices to a certain extent. Information needs to be filtered, people's ears need to be purified, and of course, it also needs to cooperate with the adjustment of the supply side and accurate information on house prices and housing. An important feature of this round of property market adjustment is to stabilize housing prices by changing people's psychological expectations.
Use nine words to sum up the suggestions of financing 360 mortgage to buyers: read more, listen more, ask more questions and summarize more. Only you know yourself best. As a necessity, your every move can affect the house price.
(The above answers were published on 20 17-06-23. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
For more real estate information, policy interpretation and expert interpretation, click to view.