At present, the global silver output is maintained at 2,500 tons to 2,600 tons per year, and the silver output has not changed much. On the contrary, the demand is increasing day by day. At present, the main demand is concentrated in industry and silver jewelry manufacturing. In this case, it is estimated that the growth of silver demand in the future will still be greater than the supply provided by silver production. Therefore, from the fundamental factors, silver prices will play a supporting role. The change of basic supply and demand of silver has the most substantial influence on the price of silver. This kind of factors alone have a long-term impact on the price of silver, but market factors have the greatest short-term impact on the price of silver.
The second is the market factor, which is the factor that affects the change of silver price because of the inflow of some funds.
Market factors refer to: in the financial market for some reason. For example, the dollar is getting better, such as the rise in oil prices; Can have different effects on the market and investors, these market factors are not static, we can list several market factors that have the most obvious impact on the price of silver:
1. Oil, basically, rising oil prices will make investors worry about rising inflation, and in these cases, silver prices will also benefit from rising, so the relationship between rising oil prices and rising silver prices is very clear.
Second, the relationship between dollar, dollar and silver price can be regarded as exchange relationship. When the dollar falls, because the price of silver is priced in dollars, the price will definitely rise. In addition, from the perspective of capital flow, when the dollar price weakens, there is a chance to see a large amount of funds flow from the region to the gold market, which can also stimulate the purchase intention of silver.
Third, the dollar interest rate and capital interest rate can affect the cost and intention of investors to buy silver. After the financial tsunami, the global interest rate is at a very low level. In this case, even if the current interest rate rises, the impact on the cost of holding positions is temporarily limited. When we look at the impact of interest rates on the price of silver, we should also know how to look at the interest rate ratio of silver itself. Because of its monetary characteristics, silver has its own financing costs and expenses. The interest rate of silver refers to this fee. In the past, the interest rate of silver was basically at a very low level, such as less than 1%, which ordinary investors would ignore. After the financial tsunami, the global interest rate was lowered, and the supply force of silver wanted to worry about the safety of financial control. The supply of silver positions is less, and the interest rate of silver has risen instead of falling, because the borrowing cost of silver itself has risen. At present, the loan interest rate of silver is sometimes higher than that of the US dollar. In this case, holding silver, such as buying a silver contract, can sometimes get the spread in turn, which helps silver to hold more positions, so this factor will support the price of silver in the short term.
The third is technical factors, mainly from the chart trend changes and price changes on the impact of silver prices, the basic factor is that the relationship between supply and demand of silver has the most important impact.
Because more and more investors take charts and technical factors as reference to enter the market, in this case, we find that the influence of charts on silver prices is increasing day by day, and the reason for the fluctuation of gold prices on a certain day may be due to the reasons and strength of technical trends. In addition to chart changes, we also pay attention to some technical data, such as the number of open contracts, because the American Gold Futures Exchange is the locomotive of the global gold market. These open contract figures have a certain impact on futures trading. Through the change of these figures, we can evaluate the change and relationship between short positions and long positions in the market, which can be used as a reference for trading in the market. It is difficult to accurately predict the fluctuation of silver price with a set of established reasons and calculation methods. I hope that silver investors should at least understand what is the most basic factor that can affect the price of silver before entering the market, rather than simply predicting the price of gold from the change of a number.