A. overview of soybean oil
Soybean oil is an oil extracted from soybean, which has a certain viscosity and is a translucent liquid. Its color varies with soybean seed coat and soybean variety, from light yellow to dark brown, with soybean flavor. Soybean oil is widely used, and people have been processing soybean oil with soybean for a long time. The main component of soybean oil is triglyceride, and it also contains a small amount of phosphorus ester, sterol and other components. Triglycerides contain oleic acid (2 1.3%), linoleic acid beans (54.5%), linolenic acid and stearic acid (3.5%), palmitic acid (1 1.7%) in saturated fatty acids, and a small amount of wood acid and peanut acid. The calorie of one gram of soybean oil is about 9386 calories, and the digestibility is as high as 98.5%. The acid value of soybean oil is generally below 4.0 mg KOH/g, the saponification value is 190~ 195mg KOH/g, the freezing point is-150 ~- 190 c, and the iodine value is120 ~/kl.
B, the use of soybean oil
(1) Edible
1, edible oil. Edible oil is the main way of soybean oil consumption. Worldwide, the consumption of cooking soybean oil accounts for about 70% of the total consumption of soybean oil. Domestically, the consumption of cooking soybean oil accounts for about 78% of soybean oil consumption and 35% of total oil consumption. Together with rapeseed oil, it has become two major edible oils in China.
2. Food processing. Soybean oil can not only be eaten directly, but also be used for food processing. Soybean oil can be used to make a variety of edible oils, such as cold oil, frying oil, shortening and so on. In addition, soybean oil is also used to make margarine, mayonnaise and other foods. The oil consumption for food processing in China accounts for about 12% of the total consumption of soybean oil. Due to different dining habits, the proportion of western countries is higher than that of China. For example, the oil consumption for food processing in the United States accounts for more than 25% of the total domestic soybean oil consumption.
(2) Industry and medicine
After deep processing, soybean oil is widely used in industry and medicine. In industry, soybean oil can be processed into glycerol, ink, synthetic resin, coating, lubricating oil, insulating products and liquid fuel. Stearic acid in soybean oil fatty acid can be used to make soap and candles; Soybean oil mixed with tung oil or linseed oil can make a good paint. In medicine, soybean oil has the functions of lowering blood cholesterol and preventing and treating cardiovascular diseases, and is an important raw material for making linoleic acid pills and yishouning.
Two, soybean oil futures exchange and trading code
Soybean Oil Futures Exchange: Dalian Commodity Exchange, trading code: Y.
Three, soybean oil futures standard contract
4. What are the influencing factors of soybean oil futures price?
(A) the supply of soybean oil
1, soybean supply
As a downstream product of soybean processing, the supply of soybean directly determines the supply of soybean oil. In general, the increase of soybean supply will inevitably lead to the increase of soybean oil supply. There are two main sources of soybean, one is domestic soybean and the other is imported soybean.
(1) Domestic soybean supply
Northeast China and Huanghuai area are the main soybean producing areas, and the harvest season is usually from September to 65438+ 10 every year, and the months after harvest are the concentrated period of soybean supply. In recent years, China's soybean output has been maintained at about160,000 tons, of which nearly half is used for crushing.
(2) the international market supply situation
China is the largest soybean importer in the world. In recent years, China has imported more than 20 million tons of soybeans from the United States, Brazil and Argentina every year.
2. Soybean oil production
The current output of soybean oil is a variable, which is subject to factors such as soybean supply, expected annualized income of soybean crushing, production cost and so on. Generally speaking, when other factors remain unchanged, there is an obvious inverse relationship between the output and price of soybean oil. Soybean oil production increased and the price was relatively low. Soybean oil production decreased and the price was relatively high.
3. Import and export volume of soybean oil
With the rapid development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, the consumption and import of soybean oil have increased year by year. Changes in soybean oil imports have a growing impact on domestic soybean oil prices. After 2006, with the cancellation of soybean oil import quota, domestic and foreign soybean oil markets will be integrated. In this way, the influence of soybean oil import quantity on domestic soybean oil price will be further enhanced.
4, soybean oil inventory
Soybean oil inventory is an important part of supply, and the amount of inventory reflects the tension of supply. In most cases, insufficient inventory leads to price increase, while sufficient inventory leads to price decrease. Because soybean oil is not easy to be preserved for a long time, once the stock of soybean oil increases, the price of soybean oil tends to go down.
(2) Consumption of soybean oil
1, domestic demand situation
China is a big consumer of soybean oil. Domestic soybean oil consumption has grown rapidly, maintaining an annual growth rate of more than 12%.
2. The catering industry is prosperous.
China's vegetable oil production and consumption rank among the top in the world. With the improvement of living standards of urban residents, more and more people eat out, and the prosperity of catering industry has a very obvious impact on the demand for soybean oil.
(3) the prices of related commodities and substitute commodities
1, soybean price
The price of soybean directly affects the production cost of soybean oil. Many large domestic crushing enterprises choose imported soybeans as processing raw materials, which makes the crushing capacity of imported soybeans far exceed that of domestic soybeans. Therefore, the price of soybean oil is increasingly affected by the price of imported soybeans.
The benefit of soybean crushing is one of the important factors that determine the supply of soybean oil. If the squeezing efficiency of soybean processing plants is kept down, some factories will stop production, thus reducing the market supply of soybean oil.
2. The price relationship between soybean oil and soybean meal
Soybean oil is the downstream product of soybean, and about 0. 18 tons of soybean oil and 0.8 tons of soybean meal can be squeezed out per ton of soybean. The prices of soybean oil and soybean meal are closely related. According to years of experience, in most cases, the price of soybean meal is high, and the price of soybean oil will fall; When the soybean meal is unsalable, the soybean processing plant will reduce the operating rate, the output of soybean oil will decrease, and the price of soybean oil will often rise.
3. The price of soybean oil substitutes
In addition to the high correlation between soybean oil price and soybean meal price, soybean oil substitutes such as rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanut oil and cottonseed oil also have a certain impact on soybean oil price. If the price of soybean oil is too high, refineries or oil-using enterprises often replace it with other vegetable oils, resulting in a decrease in the demand for soybean oil and a decrease in the price of soybean oil.
Impact of agricultural, trade and food policies
1, agricultural policy
National agricultural policies often affect farmers' choice of planting varieties. For example, in recent years, the state has guided farmers to increase soybean planting area by adjusting relevant industrial policies, thus directly increasing domestic soybean production. After May 2004 1, China implemented a new vegetable oil standard, which improved the product quality and hygiene and safety requirements of vegetable oil, and increased the inspection of peroxide value and solvent residue index. These policies have a certain impact on the price of soybean oil.
2. Import and export trade policy
Over the years, the change of national import and export trade policy has a great influence on the total import and export of soybean oil in China. For example, 1994, People's Republic of China (PRC) State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China adjusted the tariff rate of imported soybean oil, and the tariff rate was reduced from 20% to 13%. At the same time, the tariff rates of vegetable oils such as peanut oil and palm oil have also been reduced to varying degrees, resulting in a large increase in the import of vegetable oils such as soybean oil and a rapid increase in the supply of soybean oil.
3. Food policy
In recent years, with the occurrence of avian influenza, mad cow disease and foot-and-mouth disease, considering the impact of genetically modified foods on human health, more and more countries have implemented new food policies. These new grain policies have affected the consumption demand of soybean oil through the influence on food and catering industry.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) Related analysis and comment on soybean oil futures.
1, soybean oil futures are suitable for speculation.
According to the data of National Grain and Oil Information Center, the consumption of soybean oil in China in 2004/2005 was 7.85 million tons, and it is estimated that the consumption of soybean oil in China in 2005/2006 will reach 8.23 million tons. If estimated at a price of about 5,000 yuan/ton, the market size of soybean oil is about 40 billion. Compared with other varieties, the scale is obviously small. In addition, soybean oil is easily affected by the seasonal supply and consumption of soybeans and is not easy to store.
2. Soybean oil is sensitive to economic environment.
As we all know, the commodity market is experiencing an unprecedented super bull market. From crude oil series, non-ferrous metal series, gold and other precious metal series, they all hit new highs or are at historical highs, mainly due to strong economic growth, depreciation of the US dollar, and low expected annualized global interest rate policy. Affected by inflation expectations and the bull market atmosphere of the whole commodity market, many analysts (even many investment masters) are more optimistic about this year's agricultural products market. The reason is that the prices of most agricultural products are at historical lows. In my opinion, there are two characteristics that are prone to bull market. The first is goods imported from China, and the second is goods sensitive to economy and finance.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the consumption of soybean oil by urban and rural residents in China has increased with the growth of GDP, and with the process of urbanization and industrialization in China, the consumption of soybean oil by urban and rural residents has also been enlarged simultaneously. It is predicted that by 20 15, the per capita consumption of soybean oil in China will reach 9.7kg, an increase of 7 1% compared with 2005. The average annual growth rate is 5.5%. It is estimated that China's soybean oil imports will maintain an average annual growth rate of 6.4% in 2006-20 15, and the import volume will reach 4.65 million tons in 20 15, an increase of 86% compared with 2005. The proportion of imported soybean oil in soybean oil consumption will increase year by year, and it is estimated that the proportion will reach 32 in 20 15 years.