In this round of "loosening", Ningbo, Qingdao, Suzhou, Jinan, Zhengzhou and other hot cities have introduced corresponding policies to completely (or partially) cancel the property market purchase restriction policy.
For example, Qingdao's September 15 "Dynamic Improvement of Real Estate Policy in Our City" mentioned that second-hand houses are no longer restricted. On September 14, Suzhou reported that the city cancelled the purchase restriction of the first suite, and the trading center in the six districts under its jurisdiction has begun to implement this policy.
At that time, many voices in the industry shouted, "The tide of completely canceling the purchase restriction has begun."
However, not long after, the above two places successively withdrew the "loosening" policy of the property market, which caused widespread concern.
The strength of "loosening" is far greater than before.
Different from the past, this round of "loosening" of the property market has remarkable characteristics.
Li, director of Guangdong Real Estate Policy Research Center, told China that the cities that recently liberalized the purchase restriction policy are all regional hotspot cities, not the third-and fourth-tier cities in the past.
"The background of this round of liberalization of purchase restrictions is mainly that in August, the the State Council executive meeting clearly stated that all localities can' one city, one policy' and implement flexible real estate control policies in stages." Li said to him.
For these hot cities, the policy of liberalizing the purchase restriction this round is far stronger than before.
It is understood that Ningbo has fully liberalized the purchase restriction as early as September 8, and the number of family purchases is no longer limited. Although Ningbo's "loosening" has not been publicly released, according to the specific policies implemented in the local real estate trading market, Ningbo has fully liberalized the property market purchase restriction.
On September 13, Zhengzhou issued the "Implementation Opinions of Zhengzhou Public Security Bureau on Further Deepening the Reform of Household Registration System", which further relaxed the conditions for settling in the central city: anyone who has a legally stable employment or a legally stable residence (including lease) is not limited by the years of social security payment and residence, and he and his spouse, children and parents who live together can apply for registration of household registration of urban residents.
This means that Zhengzhou has become the first mega-city in China to truly achieve "zero threshold" settlement.
Previously, the restrictions on the purchase of Zhengzhou property market included two sets of household registration in this city, and single purchase 1 set; Foreign residents who want to buy a house need to pay 24 months of social security or individual tax in Zhengzhou. Once the settlement restriction is lifted, it is equivalent to directly lowering the threshold for foreigners to buy a house in Zhengzhou.
Suzhou's September 14 "relaxed" purchase restriction policy proposes that non-Suzhou residents purchase the first suite in six districts of Suzhou (Wuzhong District, Wujiang District, gusu district, Xiangcheng District, High-tech Zone and Industrial Park) without issuing social security certificates or personal income tax certificates, but purchase 1 suite. Families with local hukou in Suzhou can purchase up to 3 sets.
On September 15, Jinan also announced that the restricted purchase area was adjusted from the previous eight districts to Lixia District and Shizhong District within the Second Ring Road.
It is worth noting that Qingdao and Suzhou quickly withdrew the "loosening" policy and reappeared the phenomenon of "one-day tour" in the property market policy.
Qingdao deleted the words "second-hand housing is no longer restricted" one day after the release of the new property market regulation policy; Suzhou reversed its policy two days after the total cancellation of the purchase restriction and announced that it would continue to implement the purchase restriction.
After re-adjustment, Suzhou's policy is: except Wujiang District, the other five districts, namely Wuzhong, Gusu, Xiangcheng and Gaoxinhe Industrial Park, will resume the previous purchase restriction policy.
The staff of Suzhou Xiangcheng Housing Management Bureau said that at present, foreigners still need 6 months of social security or tax payment certificate to buy a house.
Behind the "loosening" and emergency retreat
Why do these cities greatly "loosen" the property market purchase restriction? Why is the relevant policy urgently withdrawn after its introduction?
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, believes that such adjustment shows that in the process of policy relaxation, all localities are worried about market chaos such as real estate speculation.
According to the data released on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics in September 16, in August, among 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, the number of cities where the sales price of commercial housing decreased increased.
Specifically, in August, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales price of new commercial housing declined in 49 cities. There are 6 1 city with a year-on-year decline in the sales price of second-hand houses; The year-on-year growth rate of the national commercial housing sales area was -23.0%.
The depression of the real estate market is directly transmitted to the local auction market. From June 5438 to August this year, the year-on-year growth rate of land acquisition area of real estate enterprises in China was -49.7%, and the local auction market directly affected the fiscal revenue of local governments in cities.
The above-mentioned cities that have liberalized purchase restrictions are no exception. Taking Qingdao as an example, the third batch of centralized land supply in 2022 officially ended on September 16. In this centralized land supply auction, about 85% of the plots were sold at the reserve price, and the overall premium rate of the plots was as low as 1. 14%, which was lower than the first and second rounds of centralized land supply this year.
From the point of view of land acquisition enterprises, among the 30 plots that have been sold, 22 plots have the participation of platform companies.
Platform companies generally refer to economic entities with independent legal personality established by local governments and their departments and institutions through financial allocation or injection of assets such as land and equity, which undertake the financing function of government investment projects.
For example, Qingdao Chengtou Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. won a plot of the second branch road of Loushan, Licang District, Qingdao with a reserve price of 690 million yuan. The actual control right of Qingdao Chengtou Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. is held by Qingdao SAAC100%.
Previously, Nanjing Road 1, a popular plot in downtown Qingdao, was also sold at the reserve price. The land acquisition enterprise was Qingdao Hainuo Rong Jian Real Estate Co., Ltd., which is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qingdao Hainuo Investment Development Co., Ltd. and is controlled by Qingdao Shinan Finance Bureau 100%.
In the eyes of many people in the industry, the land taken over by local city investment companies can only play a bottom role.
According to the statistics of China Real Estate Information Group (CRIC), the overall operating rate of centralized land supply projects in 20021-2022 was 33%, while the operating rate of land acquisition by platform companies was only 16%.
"Now the market is too bad, and many local platform companies dare not take the land and support it hard." An insider told China Newsweek.
The above-mentioned insiders also revealed that the turnover rate is very important for the real estate industry. If we don't start work for too long and can't withdraw funds in time, the pressure on platform companies and local finance will be even greater in the next step.
Under the downward trend of the market, the full liberalization of the property market has also been highly anticipated by many cities. Some analysts pointed out that many cities tried to ease the downward pressure on the property market by liberalizing the purchase restriction. But on the other hand, I am worried that the comprehensive "loosening" of relevant policies will trigger the resurgence of real estate speculation.
"It is not ruled out that in the process of relaxing various policies, some new real estate speculation may be formed, which will lead to new pressure on the regulation of the property market." Yan Yuejin said.
In fact, after the release of the purchase restriction, buyers in many cities are "gearing up". On the second day after Suzhou announced the lifting of the purchase restriction policy, a local real estate seller told China Newsweek, and received many telephone inquiries from buyers in Jiangsu and Shanghai on the same day.
On August 5th, Langfang Municipal Government announced the full liberalization of the property market purchase restriction, and cancelled the restrictive purchase conditions such as household registration and social security (individual tax). The data shows that since then, the transaction volume of local new houses has obviously rebounded, especially during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. Many Yanjiao agents reported that there were many tenants in Beijing.
"Don't put it in the suburbs of the city"
However, Li believes that the current overall market turnover is still sluggish, and the reason is not entirely caused by the purchase restriction policy. In his view, the most fundamental problem lies in the risk impact of the supply side and the depressed expectations of the demand side. The reasons behind it are the slowdown in income caused by the economic downturn caused by the epidemic and the pessimism of potential buyers about future income and job prospects.
In recent years, the policies of various cities have tried to find a balance between "housing and not speculating" and boosting the property market.
Then, how to strengthen the basic positioning of "housing and not speculating" and boost the property market to a certain extent?
China News Weekly noted that many cities have chosen the strategy of regional liberalization of purchase restrictions.
For example, in Jinan, except Lixia District and Shizhong District, other areas or the Second Ring Road are no longer restricted. For non-restricted areas, Qingdao has made it clear that local household registration and foreign household registration can purchase 3 or more properties.
Li believes that the downward trend of the property market in the main urban areas of hot cities is essentially phased, because the demand in the main urban areas is relatively concentrated and the supply of new houses is relatively small. It is only a matter of time before the recovery, and the sub-regional purchase restriction policy has actually played a role of "isolation".
"The core areas of hot cities are fully liberalized, and there is no limit on how many sets to buy, which is likely to cause large fluctuations in house prices in a short period of time, which runs counter to the principle of' housing and not speculating'. However, the supply in the suburbs is large, and the current demand prospect is not optimistic. Such a field can be completely liberalized. " Li said to him.
Yan Yuejin also believes that a notable feature of the recent relaxation of purchase restrictions is that "the urban area does not put suburbs".
Li said that no matter how the policy is adjusted, it has always been the established policy of the state and the principle of local regulation and control to "live without speculation" and not to use real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy.
However, how to define a stable market requires a reasonable frame of reference. Many people in the industry believe that the current property market can not only be compared with historical high data.
"In the last five or six years, the sales volume of the property market has been hovering at the highest level in history. Compared with last year and the year before last, this year's sales volume has declined, but compared with 20 19, 20 18 and even 20 17 and 20 16, it is still at a historical high level, and for many cities, it is still the third or fourth good result in history. " Li said to him.
Yan Yuejin said that the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy in the future will put more emphasis on gradual progress rather than one-time relaxation.
(Original question: "The property market is" loosened ",why did Qingdao and other places reverse? 》)