"Suppose there is something called baked wheat cake now. If you buy me, the price of sesame cakes will go up. Now, the rising demand has led to an increase in the price of sesame cakes, from one piece to two pieces! Well, suppose you bought a biscuit for a dollar a long time ago, and now you sell it quickly, and the income doubles. Then others can't bear to see it and spend their whole lives buying cakes. Therefore, the price of biscuits ranged from 2 to 4, from 4 to 8 ... and finally miraculously rose to 16. In this process, people are constantly earning the difference, and people are constantly jealous. It took 16 yuan to buy a baked wheat cake. Congratulations, he spent 16 yuan to buy a baked wheat cake, which solved the problems of eating and marrying a wife ... When all the enthusiasm in the market and the bubble composed of a small piece of soap slowly burst, people found that they only bought a baked wheat cake, which used to sell for 1 yuan. Because of inflation, it is now worth 2 yuan, and you spend 65,438 yuan arranging flowers. 16 ...15 ...14 ... 5 ... 4 ... 3...2 ... The price that had been hyped for several years was instantly turned back to its original shape. Yesterday, you became the richest man with/kloc-0.00 billion cookies. Today, you quit the rich list and are going to jump off a building. Those meals! ! Those poor people, bankers who borrowed money to buy cakes, shouted at the bank staff, I didn't pay back the loan, and the cakes will be returned to you ... "
I'm not sure whether the house price will fall. Economists generally believe that it will fall, and it has reached the understanding of falling. In addition, the government is also making some efforts to promote the return of housing prices to rationality. Two years of real estate regulation and control have basically controlled the excessive rise of housing prices. In some places, housing prices have stopped rising, and sometimes they will fall slightly. . . However, I think that in an era of high inflation, as long as house prices do not rise, it means that this will fall. How to understand this sentence? Suppose that within two years, house prices will be affected by regulation, while domestic prices will remain unchanged. Then two years ago 100 Jin of grain could be exchanged for 1 square meter of house. Because food prices are rising and house prices are unchanged, then the rise in food prices can be understood as the decline in house prices. Therefore, any phenomenon that house prices remain unchanged or the increase in house prices is lower than the increase in CPI in the same period should be understood as a decline in house prices.
3. The root cause of the housing price bubble is that the government has overinvested to stimulate economic growth, and in order to avoid inflation risks, capital has poured into the real estate industry. If the short-term decline in house prices is too large, which is what we call the bursting of the bubble, it will lead to a series of serious negative effects. I also quote my answers to other questions:
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"Let me guess what happened to you after the bubble burst ... First of all, the real estate recession led to a comprehensive economic recession, and the unemployment problem was serious. You were unemployed before you found a job. ...
Then, in order to avoid the risk of inflation, the currency diluted by the real estate industry hypes consumer goods wildly, and prices soar ... You have no job, and prices soar again ... At this time, you will do two things like most unemployed people, one is waiting for employment, and the other is waiting for government relief. ...
Many people regard the bursting of the bubble as a very good thing. Naive people actually fantasize about profiting from the bursting of the bubble ... I don't know if the friends upstairs didn't explain it clearly, or whether China people have been exploited by housing prices for too long, all of which are delusions ... The bursting of the bubble is essentially a crisis that no one can escape ... Looking forward to the bursting of the bubble is like praying for the end of the world. Everyone in China, whether he can afford to buy a house or not, has undoubtedly enjoyed the benefits brought by the bubble to stimulate the economy ... When the bubble bursts, it means that the wealth people gained in the bubble for ten years will be wiped out ... It includes real estate and other wealth you have now ... "
In view of the huge impact of the bursting of the real estate bubble, the government must prevent such incidents. The first thing to do is to prevent housing prices from rising too fast and the policy cannot be implemented too fiercely. Otherwise, the foam may burst rapidly. Our government's approach is to support the development of other industries, so as to reduce the dependence of China's economy on the real estate industry, find a home for the currency that has overspent, and prevent it from causing inflation due to falling house prices. In recent two years, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has expanded its investment in transportation industries such as railways and high-speed rail, hoping that part-of-speech investment can replace the real estate industry to boost China's economic growth.
This action must be carried out in stages, so I think the decline of house prices is a very long process, and I hope it is a long process, otherwise the consequences will be very serious.
In addition, personally, I don't think the price will drop much, although I didn't pay attention to it. . . However, due to the serious domestic inflation (M2 exceeds that of the United States), the demand caused by the urbanization of China and the imbalance between men and women. . . Personally, I think there is limited room for house prices to fall, and it is very likely that some of the decline has been contained by inflation. Of course, it's just that my personal views are not authoritative and are for reference only.
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