Heat reduction
The national housing index report released by Tongcheng and Anjuke in May showed that the national property market picked up slightly in May. Among the 67 key monitoring cities, the price of new houses increased by 0.44% and the price of second-hand houses increased by 0. 1 1%. In May, the "Xiaoyangchun" of the property market ended, and the heat of the property market was polarized, and the driving force for rising house prices was weak. Judging from the users' housing-seeking behavior, the nationwide housing-seeking enthusiasm decreased by 2.4% in May, the housing-seeking enthusiasm in first-tier cities increased slightly by 0.5%, and the housing-seeking enthusiasm in second-tier cities decreased obviously by 4. 1%.
Jaco, chief analyst of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said that the overall property market cooled down in May, and the "Xiaoyangchun" in March and April did not continue in May. After a small wave of high tide after the Spring Festival, the property market gradually returned to normal. At the same time, the increase in housing search volume in Beijing and Shanghai is more reflected in the second-hand housing level. It is expected that the market turnover in first-tier cities will still be better than that in the third and fourth quarters of last year, but the driving force for rising house prices is still weak.
In the new housing market, the average price of new housing in 67 major cities nationwide in May was 16353 yuan/square meter. Among the 67 cities, the price of new houses in 40 cities rose month on month. Judging from the increase in housing prices, the potential of emerging cities exceeds that of first-tier and new first-tier cities, and the top five cities in terms of chain increase are Weifang, Nanjing, Jining, Yangzhou and Dalian. In the second-hand housing market, the average listing price of second-hand housing in 67 major cities nationwide in May was 15202 yuan/square meter, up 0. 1 1% from the previous month. 67 cities 4 1, the listing price of second-hand houses rose month-on-month. Among them, the listing price of second-hand houses in Beijing is relatively high, with an average listing price of 59,820 yuan/square meter, followed by Shenzhen and Shanghai. Zhoushan, Luoyang, Xiamen, Jilin and Hangzhou are the cities with the highest month-on-month increase in the price of second-hand houses in China, with the average listing price of second-hand houses in Xiamen reaching 45,355 yuan/square meter, surpassing Guangzhou.
Strong policy tightening expectations
At the same time, many places have strengthened the control measures for real estate. According to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in May 20 19, the state's regulation and control measures on real estate were as high as 4 1 time; In the first five months of 20 19, the cumulative number of regulation and control reached 205 times, an increase of nearly 30% year-on-year. In the last two months, the policies of many places have been significantly tightened again, especially in Hainan, Guangzhou, Suzhou and Hefei, and the real estate regulation and control efforts have continued to increase.
In addition, since May, the early warning, interview and accountability mechanisms for the real estate industry have reappeared. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development once again made a strong voice, prompting warnings of rising housing prices in several cities for two consecutive months. In addition, it is expected that the tightening of local supervision will be great. In late May, China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) announced the working points of banking institutions in 20 19 to "consolidate the results of chaos control and promote compliance construction" and strictly investigate the illegal financing of real estate. The banking supervision system once again strengthened the supervision of real estate financing.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the real estate regulation was generally stable from the fourth quarter of 20 18 to the first quarter of 20 19. Under the incremental supply of credit, the real estate market in some cities has seen a "rising volume and price" xiaoyangchun market. In this case, the real estate regulation and control policy has shown an obvious tightening trend since mid-April. In the last two months, the real estate has been regulated 100 for many times, and the density is at the highest stage in history.
Zhang Dawei pointed out that stability is actually a two-way adjustment, and the surge is definitely unstable, and the plunge is also unstable. "Stable land price, stable house price and stable expectation" are the requirements of comprehensive regulation, and the overall policy fundamentals remain relatively tight. As long as there is no obvious change in the credit policy, the adjustment of other policies will have limited impact on the property market. How the property market will go in the future depends on the policy level's regulation of credit policy.