First, the overall situation of industrial economic operation in Hunan Province in the first half of the year
In the first half of the year, the growth rate and efficiency of industrial production in Hunan Province continued to decline, the related economic indicators were weak, and the downward pressure on industrial operation continued to be great.
(1) Industrial production is basically stable, but the growth rate continues to decline. In the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Hunan Province increased by 1 1.0% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points faster than the same period of last year, but 0.6 percentage points lower than that of the whole year of last year, and dropped monthly on the basis of 1-2.1%. The growth rate dropped 0.8 percentage points from the first quarter and 0.4 percentage points from1-May. From the perspective of monthly growth rate, the monthly growth rates from February to June were 14.7%,1.4%, 1 1.2%, 10.3% and 8.2% respectively, except for
According to the historical data since 2000, the year 2003-20 1 1 showed a high operation trend, and the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in the province was above 18%. In other years, except for 20 13 and the first half of this year, the growth rate of other years is between13.8-16.1%. At present, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in the first half of the province is the lowest since 2000. From the trend, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size has been declining continuously since the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, and the growth rate has gradually decreased from 23.4% in 20 10 to the current 1 1.0%, with a decrease rate of more than 50%.
(2) The overall profit of enterprises keeps increasing, but the profit level keeps declining. This year1-May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the province after breakeven was 50.46 billion yuan, up 4.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.6 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. From the horizontal comparison, the profit growth rate is 5.8 percentage points lower than the national average, ranking 17 in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). Since the beginning of this year, the trends have been1-February,1-March,1-April and1-May, and the profit growth rates of industrial enterprises above designated size in the province are 17.9%, 10.2% and 6.2% respectively. Although corporate profits have maintained a certain growth, the profit level has continued to decline. During the period of1-May, the profit rate of the main business of industrial enterprises above designated size in the province was 4.3 1%, which was 0. 17, 0.29 and 0.37 percentage points lower than that in1-April, the first quarter and1-February respectively.
(3) The trend of relevant economic indicators is relatively weak. In terms of industrial electricity consumption, the industrial electricity consumption in the first half of the year increased by 5. 1% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 3.3 percentage points from the first quarter, 5.2 percentage points from the beginning of the year and 2.2 percentage points from last year. The decline in the growth rate of industrial electricity consumption is not only affected by the decline in the growth rate of industrial production, but also the result of the continuous advancement of industrial restructuring and the slowdown in the development of energy-intensive industries. In terms of tax revenue, the province's industrial value-added tax increased by 1.9% in the first quarter, and continued to decrease after the second quarter, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% in the first half of the year, showing negative growth for the first time since 20 10. Although the reduction of industrial tax has the influence of structural tax reduction under the reform of tax policy, it is more important that the tax source shrinks due to the slowdown of industrial production growth and the continuous low product prices.
Two, the overall adjustment and development of the industrial economy, the industry economic operation situation differentiation is obvious.
(1) The pillar industries are depressed. The special equipment manufacturing industry, which is mainly based on construction machinery, is the backbone advantage industry of Hunan industry, and its industrial scale, agglomeration level, technical strength and brand effect rank among the top in the country. 2006-20 1 1 The manufacturing industry of large-scale industrial special equipment developed rapidly, with the added value increasing by more than 37%. However, with the changes of macroeconomic conditions and market environment, the production of 20 12 slows down and the development of the industry tends to be sluggish. This year, the industrial added value decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the proportion of industrial added value in industries above designated size dropped from the peak.
(2) The growth of traditional advantageous industries is fast and slow. First of all, the tobacco products industry has developed rapidly. In the first half of the year, the added value of the large-scale industrial tobacco products industry in the province increased by 15.6% year-on-year, driving the growth of large-scale industries by 1.3 percentage points, with a contribution rate of 1 1.5%, second only to the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries. Second, the food, building materials and non-ferrous industries grew steadily. In the first half of the year, driven by the steady growth of consumer demand and moderate growth of investment demand, the added value of agricultural and sideline food processing industry and food manufacturing industry of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1 1.6% and 8.3% respectively, driving the industrial enterprises above designated size to increase by 0.8 and 0.3 percentage points, with the contribution rates of 6.6% and1.5% respectively. Non-metallic mineral products industry grew by 14.9%, driving growth by 1.0 percentage points; Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry grew by 14. 1%, driving the growth by 1.2 percentage points. Third, the petrochemical and metallurgical industries grew at a low speed. In the first half of the year, due to the overhaul of production lines of key enterprises, the overall operation of the petrochemical industry was relatively sluggish. Among them, the added value of petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industries decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, while the manufacturing of chemical raw materials and chemicals increased by 12.4%. Under the present situation of overall overcapacity and no fundamental improvement in product structure, the metallurgical industry is growing at a low speed. In the first half of the year, the added value of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 5.6%, driving the growth of industries above designated size by 0.3 percentage points. This growth level was achieved on the basis of a low base in the same period, and the difficulties faced by key enterprises in the industry are still very prominent.
(3) Newly-developed industries continue to grow rapidly. Electronic information manufacturing, automobile manufacturing and pharmaceutical manufacturing, as the hot spots of current market consumption and the key points supported by the province's industrial policies, are still eye-catching this year on the basis of rapid development last year and will remain important support points for Hunan's industrial growth in the next stage. First, the growth of the electronics industry is relatively strong. In the first half of the year, the added value of large-scale industrial electronic information manufacturing industry increased by nearly 30%, which is one of the fastest growing industrial fields in the province. Among them, the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 30.3%, and the contribution rate to the industrial growth above designated size was 14.0%, which was the highest contribution rate. Lance technology, interface optoelectronics, Quanchuang technology and other enterprises, the output growth rate is above 30%, which strongly supports the growth of the industry. Second, the automobile and pharmaceutical industries are growing rapidly. The added value of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 16.2%, driving the growth of industries above designated size by 0.5 percentage points, with a contribution rate of 4.2%. The main enterprises are GAC Mitsubishi, gac fiat, BYD Auto, Zhuzhou BAIC and Bosch Auto. They have achieved rapid growth and effectively promoted the development of the industry. The growth of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was 19.2%, driving the growth of industries above designated size by 0.4 percentage points, with a growth contribution rate of 3.7%. Among the major enterprises, Qianjin Pharmaceutical, Jiuzhitang, Hunan Erkang, Dino Pharmaceutical, etc. It has maintained rapid growth and a good momentum of development.
(4) industries with distinctive advantages have accelerated their recovery. In the past few years, driven by the rapid growth of investment in railway construction, Hunan's railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industries, which are mainly rail transit, have accelerated their development and become the characteristic and advantageous industries of Hunan's industry. However, with the slowdown in investment in fixed assets, especially in railway construction, the rail transit industry has also cooled down. However, since the beginning of this year, with the gradual adjustment of the market and the change of policies, the development of rail transit equipment manufacturing industry has obviously picked up. In the first half of the year, the added value of standardized industrial railways, ships, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industries in the province increased by 17.3% year-on-year, driving the growth of industries above designated size in the province by 0.3 percentage points, with a growth contribution rate of 3. 1%. At present, CSR Zhuzhou Machinery Co., Ltd., CSR Times and other key enterprises have sufficient orders and strong production. It is expected that the industry will maintain high-speed growth in the second half of the year, and drive related supporting enterprises to accelerate their development.
Three. Main difficulties and problems
(A) the overall macroeconomic tightening, insufficient growth in market demand. With China's economy entering a critical period of transformation and development, and the intensified competition in the international market caused by the overall poor performance of the world economy, China's economic development has been restricted, and gradually changed from a high-speed development stage to a medium-speed development stage. In the first half of the year, the national GDP increased by 7.4% year-on-year, down by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, which is the lowest growth level since the financial crisis. The overall macroeconomic tightening and insufficient market demand growth are highlighted in the following aspects: First, the growth rate of investment continues to decline, and the growth rate of real estate development investment has dropped significantly. In the first half of the year, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) increased by 17.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points compared with the first quarter and 2.8 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Among them, the nominal growth of real estate development investment was 14. 1%, which was 2.7 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter and 6.4 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year, and the growth rate of real estate investment dropped even more. In the first half of the year, Hunan's investment in fixed assets and real estate increased by 2 1.2% and 17.0% respectively, and the growth trend was similar to that of the whole country. Due to the decline in the growth rate of fixed assets investment, especially real estate investment, Hunan's industries dominated by investment and resource-based industries have been hit very obviously. Second, the prices of industrial products continued to be low, and the growth of orders was weak. In the first half of the year, the ex-factory price index of industrial products in the province (year-on-year) was 99.60%, running below 100 for 26 consecutive months, and the situation of insufficient market demand has not changed. In the second quarter, the survey results of the prosperity of industrial enterprises in the whole province showed that 19.3% of enterprises' orders were lower than the normal level, which were 1.5 and 2.5 percentage points higher than those in the first and fourth quarters of last year respectively.
(2) The difficulty of business operation continues to increase, and the enthusiasm for production is frustrated. In terms of funds, the survey results of industrial enterprises' prosperity in the second quarter showed that 27.6% of enterprises were short of liquidity, up 2.2 percentage points from the first quarter; The investigation results of capital and financing of industrial enterprises show that the enterprises surveyed actually completed financing of 65.438+0.227-438+0 billion yuan in April, with a gap of 22.045 billion yuan. In terms of payment, from June 5438 to May, the accounts receivable of industrial enterprises above designated size in the province was 247.898 billion yuan, up by 20. 1%, which was higher than the growth rate of main business income 1 1.9 percentage points; Among them, the accounts receivable of large enterprises14210.2 billion yuan, an increase of 210.9%, and the average payment period of accounts receivable was significantly extended. In terms of benefits, from June 5438 to May, the main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.2%, and the growth rate continued to decline, which was the lowest level in recent years; At the same time, under the influence of financial costs, labor costs and rising water and electricity prices, the pressure of rising enterprise costs is still relatively high. During the period of1-May, the cost of the main business of the above-scale industries increased by 1 1.2%, which was 3 percentage points higher than the income of the main business. Squeezed by the slowdown of income growth and the rapid increase of cost, the profit rate of main business continued to decline, the profit level of enterprises declined, the enthusiasm of enterprises to expand production was frustrated, and the capacity utilization rate remained at a low level. In the first half of the year, although the province's industrial fixed assets investment increased by 17.0%, the growth rate was 4.2 percentage points lower than that of the whole society's fixed assets investment, down 9.3 percentage points year-on-year. The survey results of industrial enterprises in the second quarter show that only 12.8% of enterprises plan to increase investment in the third quarter, which is the lowest level since the last quarter of 10. In the first half of the year, the average utilization rate of industrial enterprises' production capacity was only 72.7%, which was 1.6 and 1.3 percentage points lower than that in the first and fourth quarters of last year respectively.
(3) The industrial structure is difficult to meet the needs of transformation, and the growth of leading industries continues to decline. In recent years, in the process of economic transformation, market consumption and demand have gradually changed, and end consumer goods such as automobiles and smart electronics have been favored, while the demand for housing and upstream resource-based products has cooled down. However, the pace of industrial transformation in Hunan is slow, the proportion of investment-based industries and resource-based industries is high, the industrial structure is difficult to adapt to the current economic structure and demand structure, and some leading industries continue to slump, which has become an important reason for industrial decline. First, the downward trend of investment-oriented industries represented by special equipment manufacturing continued further. Over the past two years, with the slowdown of investment, especially the development of real estate industry, the special equipment manufacturing industry, mainly construction machinery, has gradually changed from high-speed growth to low-speed growth until it enters the downward channel. In the first half of this year, this trend continued further, the industrial added value decreased year-on-year, and the decline in the first five months expanded month by month. Although the decline narrowed in June, it still decreased by 7.9%. The production of key enterprises such as Zoomlion, Sany Group and He Shan Intelligent has experienced negative growth or remained basically the same. Due to fierce competition and serious demand overdraft, it will take some time to digest the unfavorable factors of industry development in combination with the current environment, and it is expected that the industry will still operate at a low level in the next stage. At the same time, the scale of the industry is large, the effect of industrial agglomeration and diffusion is strong, and the sluggish operation of the industry brings great growth pressure to related industries and supporting enterprises. Second, the production growth rate of resource-based industries represented by metallurgy and mining continued to decline. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was only 50% of the provincial average, of which the growth rate in June was -2.9%, down 15.6 percentage points from March; Although the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry has increased by 14. 1%, the monthly growth rate has dropped from 28.5% in February at the beginning of the year to 6.0% in June, down by more than 20 percentage points. The output growth rate of related extractive industries also continued to decline. Among the backbone enterprises, the output of Xianggang and Lian Gang increased slightly, while the output of Hengyang steel pipe and Lengshuijiang steel showed negative growth; The production of key enterprises such as Zhuye, Shuikoushan Nonferrous Metals, Chenzhou Mining and Chuangyuan Aluminum is not ideal. In addition, the production growth rate of paper and paper products industry has also continued to decline, while the production scale of coal mining and washing industry has shrunk significantly.
(4) Recently, the growth rate of some advantageous industries and emerging industries has dropped significantly. In June, the added value of large-scale industrial tobacco products industry, computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries increased by -6.0% and 17.6%, respectively, dropping by 54.2 and 16.4 percentage points compared with May. The total contribution rate of the two industries to the industrial growth above designated size was 7.5%, down nearly 40 percentage points from last month, which became the main factor for the accelerated downward trend of industrial growth in June. With the advantages of scale and brand, Hunan tobacco industry has maintained a good development momentum in recent years. The decline in industry production in June was apparently influenced by the regulation of production plan, and the fundamental influencing factor was the increasingly saturated market capacity and fierce competition. As an important growth support point in recent two years, the production growth rate of electronic information industry declined because the business orientation of key enterprise Hengyang Shengtian (Foxconn) turned to research and development and the creation of independent brands, which led to a sharp decline in OEM products and orders. It should be noted that although the computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries maintained rapid growth (cumulative growth of 30.3% in the first half of the year), the overall growth rate dropped significantly.
Four, the second half of the province's industrial economic trends and suggestions.
At present, the macroeconomic environment is complex and changeable, and the next stage of the province's industrial operation is still full of uncertainty. First of all, from the perspective of relevant prosperity indicators, on the one hand, although the national manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) has rebounded recently (5 1.0% in June), the overall prosperity is still not high, the raw material inventory index and the employee index are below the threshold of 50%, and the non-manufacturing business activity index declined in June. On the other hand, the ex-factory prices of industrial products continue to be depressed, and the market prices of important means of production in the circulation field have risen less and fallen more. Secondly, from the perspective of reform dividend, the release of policy effects will be a moderate process. At present, the main way of national macro-control policy is "micro-stimulus", which emphasizes the pertinence and accuracy of regulation and control, and requires unswervingly promoting the transformation of economic development mode and improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth. Under the background of increasing external resources and environmental constraints of industrial operation, policy dividends will inevitably go through a process of gradual accumulation and slow release. Thirdly, from the statistical point of view, the growth rate of industrial added value in each quarter last year was 10.6%,10/%,13. 1% and 12.3% respectively, and there were two in the second half of the year. Therefore, based on the comprehensive analysis of relevant leading indicators and the trend of national macro-control policies, and considering the influence of the base in the same period of last year, it is expected that the downward pressure on Hunan's industrial economy will further increase under the existing industrial structure in the second half of the year, making it more difficult to stabilize and rebound. However, if investment can grow more effectively and rapidly under the national macro-control, the growth rate of industrial production in the fourth quarter may also pick up slightly on the basis of the third quarter. In view of the main problems faced by the current industrial economic operation, the following suggestions are put forward:
(a) efforts to maintain moderate growth in investment. Since the beginning of this year, the industrial operation has been sluggish, largely due to insufficient effective demand. Judging from the current objective environment and development stage, the most effective and direct means to promote the stable operation of the industry in the next stage is to ensure the moderate growth of investment. First, focus on infrastructure, basic industries and livelihood projects. "Micro-stimulation" does not mean that there is no stimulation. Infrastructure, basic industries and livelihood projects are not only the weak links of investment, but also the key areas of investment policy orientation. Focus on public transport, new urbanization, energy and raw materials, agricultural products processing and other basic projects, increase investment and provide investment services. The second is to do a good job in industrial projects, especially major industrial projects. Do a good job in the construction of industrial projects under construction, complete and put into production as soon as possible, and provide new growth points for the next stage of industrial growth. Focus on the construction of major projects in the fields of complete vehicles, automobile plates, integrated circuits, energy conservation and environmental protection, new materials and household appliances. Third, continue to increase investment and strive for policy support. Strengthen the organization and leadership of attracting investment, clarify the key points and objectives, improve the investment platform, and actively introduce strategic investors. Seize the policy opportunity of industrial transformation and upgrading, rely on the opportunity of building a two-oriented society, and strive for major national infrastructure construction projects and industrial transformation demonstration projects. The fourth is to continuously optimize the investment environment. Accelerate the reform of investment and financing mechanism, further explore and improve the investment and financing mode, promote the reform of land system, ensure the demand for land for project construction, increase the intensity of infrastructure construction, improve the supporting facilities of surrounding industries, and create a good investment and financing environment.
(2) Deepening the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure. In the first half of the year, Hunan's industry showed a continuous downward trend, which was different from the slowdown of national industrial growth. From the deep-seated reasons, this is mainly because Hunan relies heavily on investment and resource-based industries, while the proportion of consumer industries is low. Therefore, accelerating the pace of structural adjustment and upgrading is still the key to ensure the sustained and stable operation of industry. First, actively cultivate the support points of emerging industries. We will further improve and introduce industrial support policies, focusing on building support points for emerging industries such as electronic information, new materials, automobile manufacturing, energy conservation and environmental protection, deep processing of non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceutical manufacturing. The second is to guide the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. Keep up with market hotspots and trends, accelerate the transformation of traditional industries such as steel, nonferrous metals, food, chemicals and building materials, produce marketable products, and improve market competitiveness. Intensify technological transformation, make full use of modern information technology and other high-tech means to transform traditional industries, upgrade equipment level, strengthen comprehensive utilization of resources and save energy and reduce consumption, improve product quality, promote upgrading, and improve economic and social benefits of enterprises. The third is to effectively eliminate low-end backward production capacity. Conscientiously implement the national industrial policy, combined with Hunan's industrial characteristics, focus on increasing the elimination of low-end backward production capacity in small steel, flat glass, coke, ferroalloy, calcium carbide, lead-zinc smelting, cement and other industries, improve relevant compensation mechanisms and policies, and ensure the smooth and orderly elimination of backward production capacity. The fourth is to intensify the merger and reorganization of enterprises. Objectively understand the present situation of Hunan's industrial enterprises with small scale, loose industrial association and weak comprehensive competitiveness, speed up the reform of state-owned enterprises, use market means to promote the merger and reorganization of enterprises in nonferrous metals, food, medicine, chemicals, machinery, metallurgy and other industries, and strive to expand industrial groups and headquarters economy.
(3) Accelerate industrial innovation and development. Innovation is not only the driving force for Hunan industry to maintain steady growth, but also the key for Hunan industry to regain its competitiveness. Promoting industrial innovation and development is conducive to solving various demand contradictions, supply contradictions and structural contradictions in the development process. To accelerate the development of Hunan's industrial innovation, we should base ourselves on a higher starting point, build an all-round industrial innovation system, systematically integrate technological innovation, industrial innovation, product innovation, management innovation and innovation consciousness, and comprehensively deepen various innovation fields and links. Technological innovation should focus on modern information technology and biotechnology, overcome a number of major industrial technical projects, accelerate the pace of technological industrialization, and promote industrial innovation with technological innovation. Product innovation should focus on consumer demand and trends, vigorously develop new products, constantly enhance the added value of products, and enhance the profitability of enterprises. In terms of management innovation and innovation consciousness, we should vigorously promote the construction of modern enterprise management system and innovate management methods, especially strengthen management innovation in capital, cost, manpower, logistics and market development; Pay full attention to and encourage entrepreneurs to cultivate innovation consciousness, and promote the innovation of all employees and the whole process. In terms of supporting factors, to promote industrial innovation and development, we should focus on innovative R&D investment and innovative environment construction. At present, the investment intensity of industrial R&D funds in Hunan is still very low, and the guarantee of scientific research funds is still a "soft rib". To enhance the investment intensity of industrial R&D funds, we should guide enterprises to increase R&D investment, supplemented by government special R&D funding, and promote it in two ways. In terms of innovation environment, it is necessary to further establish and improve the province's industrial Industry-University-Research integration platform and increase the construction of industrial incubation bases; Further improve policy support, increase support for scientific research projects and high-tech talents, improve infrastructure facilities, and ensure that scientific research projects and talents can enter and stay; Attach great importance to the protection of intellectual property rights, intensify the crackdown on technical plagiarism and technical imitation, and create a good atmosphere and environment for innovation.
(4) Effectively optimize the industrial development environment. At present, industrial enterprises are still facing many problems of poor development environment, especially in financing, market order, government intervention, project approval, logistics and transportation, factor price setting and so on. To optimize the industrial development environment, efforts should be made in the following aspects: standardizing capital operation, effectively preventing the outbreak of local debt risks and illegal fund-raising risks, maintaining financial order and reducing the financial burden of enterprises; Strengthen the cooperation between banks and enterprises, use various financing channels and methods, and actively and steadily assist industrial enterprises to solve the contradiction of tight funds. Carry out in-depth management of production environment and market environment, standardize the behavior of market players, severely crack down on illegal competition such as counterfeiting, intensify the management of highway "three chaos" and other issues, reduce logistics costs and establish a good market order. Further standardize government behavior, strictly follow the requirements that the market plays a decisive role in resource allocation, accelerate the pace of comprehensive deepening reform, improve the formation mechanism of important industrial resources and factor markets, clean up and cancel a number of outdated and unreasonable examination and approval authority, and effectively reduce government intervention; Continue to help enterprises, strengthen industrial docking cooperation, and consolidate and enhance the market share of local industrial products; Further implement the support policies for automobile industry, strategic emerging industries and basic industries to ensure the effect of policy support; Strive for state support, especially major industrial projects, two-oriented society projects and infrastructure projects; Further increase investment in vocational education, and strengthen the reserve and training of industrial technology and industrial talents.