/kloc-just halfway through October, the paper giant Dongguan Nine Dragons has raised prices twice, and major paper mills have followed suit quickly. The waste newspaper per kilogram in the community has far exceeded the waste steel. Is it possible that this wave of price increases that started in the second half of last year will come to an end in the fourth quarter of this year?
Since the beginning of this year, the price of waste newspapers has been rising gradually every month. Many families don't realize it, but the vendors who recycle waste know it. The recycling price per kilogram of newspaper is twice that of recycled scrap steel. "Scrap steel is still 40 cents a kilogram, and there is no change compared with the Spring Festival. But the waste newspaper per kilogram 1.2 yuan; At least two cents more than the Spring Festival. "
Located in the neighborhood near China Communication University in the East Fifth Ring Road, a vendor who has been recycling waste products for three years said that at present, the waste paper box is 20 cents per kilogram 1 yuan, compared with 80 cents in the first half of the year; Old books are also at this price. Compared with the old newspapers, the price is higher, per kilogram 1.2 yuan, which is 20 cents higher than that in the first half of the year. If there are more newspapers, you can add one or two yuan. Compared with the second half of last year, the price per kilogram of waste paper has doubled.
Vendors also said that taking waste newspapers as an example, last year, every kilogram went to the acquisition station, and the other party's purchase price was 89 cents. He said that he mainly serves this community and won't go far away. For example, near the Sixth Ring Road, per kilogram 1.4 yuan newspaper. I heard that the farther away, the higher the price. "If someone has more waste newspapers, sometimes they are too lazy to calculate them carefully and give the seller two or three yuan more. This is also common."
In each community, taking waste newspapers as an example, some communities classify cartons, books and newspapers at different prices, while others are unified, about one yuan per kilogram. Scrap steel is still not optimistic, only forty or fifty cents per kilogram. But vendors can feel that it is more difficult to engage in waste recycling. Some small recycling stations are closed, and the news they hear is that environmental protection is not up to standard.
It is understood that industry analysts believe that there are two main reasons for the price increase of waste newspapers. "The first is that the country prohibits the import of waste paper, and the second is that the government controls the environmental pollution of paper-making enterprises. Under the combined effect of these two factors, the price of waste recycling has risen. "
According to professionals, for a long time, foreign waste paper has been favored by many domestic paper mills with its low price and good quality. In mid-August this year, in the new version of the Catalogue of Imported Waste Management issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, unclassified waste paper has been adjusted from restricted import to prohibited import, and recycled (scrapped) paper and cardboard have been included in the "prohibited list". In September this year, the average price of waste paper arrived at the factory was 2960 yuan/ton, compared with 1240 yuan/ton in the same period last year, with an increase of 139%.
65438+1From 6 to 8 October, 3/KLOC-0 paper mills in China raised the purchase price of waste paper, with the increase range ranging from 20 to 200 yuan per ton. Since the quality requirements of imported waste paper were tightened in August, the "waste paper shortage" has made the purchase price of domestic waste paper reach the highest value in 9 years. It is understood that this year, major paper mills will raise the purchase price of waste paper almost every month. Because the recycling price of waste newspapers has been rising all the way, it is inevitable that the price of paper will rise.
Industry insiders predict that because the supply and demand situation is difficult to change in the short term, the fourth quarter will enter the traditional e-commerce peak season, and the paper price situation may be more severe.
Guo Yaping, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang Information Packaging Paper, said that the prices of all kinds of paper rose after September last year, and the prices of paper rose significantly in the fourth quarter of last year. In March this year, the price of paper plummeted, mainly due to the deviation of practitioners' judgment on the later market. During the Spring Festival this year, some small and medium-sized paper enterprises started work normally, which led to a substantial increase in the inventory of paper enterprises after the Spring Festival. However, in April, paper prices began to enter the upward channel again, and in August-September, paper prices rose sharply.
In August this year, most domestic paper mills raised prices three or four times. Base paper, including corrugated paper, whiteboard paper, household paper, newsprint and coated paper, rose from 300 yuan to 900 yuan per ton. In September, the national average price of corrugated paper exceeded 5,200 yuan/ton, up by more than 100% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in history.
10, the paper company accelerated the price increase again. On September 2 1 day, the paper giant Dongguan Nine Dragons issued the price increase notice of June 10. During September 26th-June 10, the cardboard, corrugated paper and white board of Dongguan Nine Dragons rose again by 200 yuan -300 yuan/ton. This is the fourth price adjustment notice issued by Nine Dragons in September this year. Immediately after 65438+1October 1 1, Dongguan Nine Dragons issued the second price increase notice again. During the period of 65438+1October1-65438+1October 20th, Dongguan Nine Dragons once again increased the cardboard, corrugated paper, recycled paper and white cow card by 650. Then the major paper mills quickly followed suit.
In view of the price trend of carton base paper in the middle and late period of 10, there is a completely different prediction. With the two price increases of major paper mills in June 5438+ 10, bulls gained the upper hand.
According to industry insiders, according to the environmental protection policy formulated by the state this year, there is still a lot of room for growth in base paper. With the soaring price of paper, the current industrial chain is in a low inventory state, and the supply continues to be weak. From the demand side, the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season of the paper industry. In addition to the obvious increase in the demand for holiday gift packaging, the e-commerce shopping festivals such as "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve" in the second half of the year stimulated the daily demand for one billion parcels, which made the market very excited. September to 65438+February is the stocking period and printing period of students' teaching materials, and the demand for cultural paper will also increase greatly. The demand side is hard to find, but the supply side is stretched. Coupled with the increase in labor costs and the increase in waste paper recycling costs, it is not difficult to understand that paper prices will rise in three days.
Chuancai Securities believes that due to the strengthening of environmental supervision, the supply-side reform of papermaking has accelerated, small and medium-sized enterprises have shut down due to environmental pressure, and the industry is facing capacity contraction. Therefore, in the first half of 20 17, the prices of major papers rose across the board, and the performance of the sector continued to improve. At the same time, the industry concentration has been improved, and leading enterprises have gained more market share. It is expected that environmental protection will become stricter in the second half of the year, and the new capacity of the paper industry will be limited. Therefore, we will continue to be optimistic about the paper plate market, and the prosperity is expected to continue. Leading enterprises are expected to lead the industry because they have mastered more market share, and their profit momentum remains strong in the second half of the year.
Some organizations believe that with the continuous tightening of environmental protection policies, small and medium-sized paper enterprises will accelerate their integration in the next few years, and the capacity advantages of large paper enterprises will emerge. Leading paper enterprises will collectively raise prices when sales gradually improve, driving the ex-factory price of related paper products to rise.
At the close of 10, 13, nine dragons paper, the leading stock of Hong Kong paper industry, increased by 125% annually. At present, the stock is consolidating at a high level in the space from 15 to 18. The latest market value of nine dragons paper reached HK$ 746,543.8 billion, the best share price since 2009. This year, not only did nine dragons paper's share price outperform expectations, but the product price also rose steadily. At the same time, the share prices of leading A-share papermaking companies have increased greatly this year, with the A-share and H-share of Chenming Paper reaching 865,438+0% and 85% respectively, Bohui Paper 77%, Sun Paper 465,438+0% and shanying paper 36%.
On the evening of September 2 1, nine dragons paper released the performance report from June 30th last year to June 30th this year. Nine dragons paper recorded sales of 3,965,438+55 million yuan in fiscal year 20 17, up 22% year-on-year; Gross profit was 7.976 billion, up 36.1%year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.384 billion, a year-on-year increase of 290.79%; Earnings per share is about 0.94 yuan and dividend payout ratio is 32%. Citigroup said that Nine Dragons' performance exceeded expectations and maintained a "buy" rating; Nomura believes that the performance is in line with expectations and maintains a "buy" rating; JPMorgan Chase thinks that nine dragons paper has good profitability and rated it as "overweight".