The real estate market is the basic condition for social reproduction of the real estate industry, which can promote the development of many industries such as construction industry and building materials industry. Real estate market can realize real estate value and use value in time through market mechanism, which can improve the economic benefit of real estate industry, promote the effective allocation of real estate resources and the virtuous circle of real estate construction funds. The real estate market can guide the rationalization of residents' consumption structure, help improve living conditions and improve residents' living standards. Therefore, the real estate market is the most representative and important part of the real estate market system, and it is in the main position. The absolute sales volume of real estate enterprises in June 5438+0-May is not very low, which can be explained by the fact that the sales data of most key real estate enterprises still increased year-on-year. However, in view of the annual target of 20 14, the completion ratio is very low, which shows that the developers were too optimistic about the overall market forecast of 20 14 at the beginning of the year.
As of yesterday, * * * 13 Vanke, Evergrande, Greenland, Country Garden, Poly and other A-share and H-share listed real estate enterprises announced their sales performance in May. Due to the increase in sales promotion and the gradual effectiveness of rescue policies in various places, the sales of key real estate enterprises improved in May, but the overall sales target completion rate generally declined in June 5438+0-May. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the pressure of shipping and listing of real estate enterprises will increase sharply, and the sales strategy of going with the market and speeding up listing will become the mainstream for real estate enterprises to deal with the market. Most of the results stopped falling and rebounded in May.
According to the performance data, the sales of key housing enterprises generally stopped falling and rebounded in May 13. Judging from the year-on-year sales amount, only Shimao and R&F decreased by 14% and 5% respectively, while other real estate enterprises increased to varying degrees, but the differentiation was obvious. Among them, Vanke increased by 3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as last month; Green space increased by 37% year-on-year, increasing by 17 percentage points over last month; The year-on-year growth rate of Poly Real Estate turned from negative to positive, from-12% last month to10% in May; Evergrande Real Estate and Sunac China increased by 28% and 23% respectively year-on-year, but the growth rate was narrower than last month.
From the perspective of the chain sales amount, the chain sales amount of 13 key real estate enterprises rose and fell by half. Among them, Evergrande, Capital, R&F, Shimao and Xuhui. It decreased by 9%, 28%, 27%, 3% and 6% respectively. Other real estate enterprises have increased to varying degrees. Poly, Greenland and Vanke increased by 47%, 25% and 14% respectively, while their month-on-month declines in April were 3 1%, 20% and 1 1% respectively.
In May, the performance of key housing enterprises stopped falling and rebounded. The main reason is that housing enterprises have increased their promotion efforts with the market, and the leading housing enterprises have performed particularly well in this respect. Among them, Vanke, after the price reduction of Beijing Vanke Orange in March, the project continued to sell well, with 427 sets sold in May, with a turnover of 733 million yuan; Of Greenland Group's sales of 654.38+0.47 billion yuan in May, Shanghai green center Phase II contributed nearly 30%; Poly Real Estate, on the other hand, uses multi-disk linkage marketing to increase holiday promotion and discount marketing. Take two projects in Foshan, Poly Purple Mountain Garden and Poly Mansion, for example. In May, they sold 400 million yuan and 270 million yuan respectively, up 54.7 times and 8 1% respectively from the previous month, and the promotion effect was remarkable. In addition, local efforts to rescue the market have increased, especially the relaxation of the first set of bank credit, which has also promoted the rebound in sales of housing enterprises.
The annual target completion rate is bleak.
Although the sales situation improved slightly in May, due to the overall market depression, the sales in the first five months were poor, and the completion of the sales target of key real estate enterprises in 20 14 was still unsatisfactory. Judging from the cumulative target completion rate from June 5438 to May, Evergrande has the highest completion rate among 13 enterprises, reaching 51%; Followed by Vanke, completed 41%; The completion of Country Garden, Xuhui, Poly, R&F, Shimao and Sunac are all between 30% and 40%. Green land, China Aoyuan and Jindi are 25%, 23% and 21%respectively; First-time home buyers are only18%; The annual completion rate of Fantasia is only 10%, which is 40% lower than the time schedule.
Generally speaking, due to the influence of the Spring Festival, the performance completion of housing enterprises will be slow in the first half of the year, but compared with the same period of 20 14 and 20 13, the performance completion of most housing enterprises has also declined to varying degrees. For example, Shimao and Poly dropped by as much as 16 percentage points and 1 1 percentage points respectively; Greenland and R&F also dropped by 6 percentage points; Capital real estate fell by 4 percentage points; China Aoyuan and Sunac are basically the same 20 13.
Some analysts believe that from the sales data of real estate enterprises, when developers set goals at the beginning of the year, there seems to be a collective error in industry judgment.
Due to the general decline in the target completion rate, housing enterprises will face two-way pressure of pushing and withdrawing cases in the second half of the year. On the one hand, due to the low performance completion, housing enterprises need to increase the number of cases to speed up sales and ensure that the annual target can be achieved; On the other hand, if the industry continues to slump, the increase in the turnover of housing enterprises will also increase the risk of product accumulation. What is clear is that the sales strategies of leading real estate enterprises such as Vanke, Greenland and Poly will become the mainstream for real estate enterprises to deal with the market in the second half of the year.
Market bubble
From the 1980s to the middle and late 1990s, the real estate market in Chinese mainland has been unable to keep up with the rapid economic development. Starting from 1999, the central government began to stop the welfare housing distribution system nationwide and began to implement the monetization system of housing distribution. This system was piloted in Yantai from 1986, characterized by rent increase and issuance of coupons, and idling. Soon, Tangshan, Bengbu and other cities also joined the ranks of housing reform pilots.
However, due to the high-intensity inflation in the late 1980s (the inflation rate reached 18.5% in 1988), the overall macroeconomic adjustment led to tight monetary policy, and a large number of real estate enterprises lost their sources of funds, resulting in the first climax of uncompleted residential flats since China's reform and opening up. In this case, the reform of housing distribution and the development of real estate market will inevitably end in silence.
After Deng Xiaoping's speech on southern tour in 1990s (1992), the state appropriately delegated the right to examine and approve land leasing, and the real estate development in southern China developed at a high speed for a whole year. However, this crazy building climax led to the rise of upstream raw materials, and also caused new high-intensity inflation, creating the second climax of uncompleted residential flats. For example, most of the unfinished buildings in Hainan Province and Beihai, Guangxi, appeared during this period.
From 65438 to 0994, "the State Council's Decision on Deepening the Reform of Urban Housing System" was promulgated and implemented, and the housing accumulation fund system began to be fully established. Previously, this real estate distribution system from Singapore was only piloted in Shanghai.
By 1998, the central government decided to stop the physical distribution of housing and change it to monetary distribution. After the welfare housing distribution is stopped, in principle, new houses will be sold and the housing provident fund system will be fully implemented. At that time, China Construction Bank issued the first personal housing mortgage loan in China.
Since the beginning of this century in 2000, Chinese mainland's real estate market reform has been heating up rapidly under the impetus of a new round of real estate investment boom. In 200 1 year, the real estate investment was 624.5 billion yuan, accounting for 16.9% of the total social investment of 3,689.8 billion yuan. By 2004, the real estate investment rose to 1448075 billion yuan, accounting for 24.7% of the total social investment of 586.2028 billion yuan (in the first half of 2005, the real estate investment was 665.438+8%). At the same time, the government has also introduced many preferential policies, expecting the real estate industry to become a new pillar industry. The methods adopted include refunding personal income tax, reducing transaction deed tax, relaxing bank loan conditions, and increasing support for the real estate industry. In this context, house prices began to soar rapidly. The most obvious example of this wave of house price fluctuation is Shanghai, the largest city in China.
In 2000, the average house price per square meter in Shanghai was 3,326 yuan. By 2004, the average house price had risen to 6,385 yuan, an increase of 92%. In 200 1 year, only 4% houses in Shanghai sold for more than 8,000 yuan/square meter, and in 2003, this figure reached 16%. By the first quarter of 2005, the transaction price of 40% houses exceeded 8,000 yuan/square meter, and the house price in the central city mostly exceeded 1.6 million yuan/square meter.
Housing prices in other cities in Chinese mainland are also rising at almost the same growth rate: Hangzhou housing prices started the upward trend earlier than Shanghai, but they also encountered market counterattacks earlier than Shanghai; Beijing's housing price increase is also quite amazing, and its status as the city with the highest housing price in Chinese mainland was surpassed by Shanghai only in early 2003. The rise in housing prices is not only concentrated in central cities, but also spread to some secondary cities.
Scholars from national research institutions and most economists believe that the real estate bubble in Chinese mainland is comparable to Japanese real estate before 199 1 and Hongkong real estate before 1997. However, a few scholars and most real estate businessmen insist that there is no bubble in Chinese mainland's real estate market, which is just a normal rise after a long-term planning system. However, in June 2003, the People's Bank of China issued the so-called document 12 1 to strengthen the management of real estate investment and curb the excessive rise of real estate. However, a month later, Order No.8 issued by the State Council offset the effectiveness of the aforementioned documents to some extent. The housing price kept advancing in the contradiction of the government until it reached its peak in early 2005.
Since 2005, the central government has taken a series of control measures to stabilize housing prices and calm people's dissatisfaction. In particular, the "Opinions on Doing a Good Job in Stabilizing Housing Prices" jointly issued by seven ministries and commissions. The opinions stipulate that "housing projects that have not started within two years should be re-examined", "property that has been held for less than two years should be fully taxed" and "the construction of affordable housing should be strengthened" and so on. The impact of this policy on the real estate bubble in Chinese mainland is very obvious. A large number of consumers are holding money for purchase, and they have strong expectations for market decline. By the time the entry was compiled, Shanghai housing prices had stabilized, the upward trend was no longer obvious, and the transaction began to shrink.
question of market
1. The source structure of real estate funds is single, the proportion of developers' own funds is low, and the real estate market is highly dependent on funds.
2. The possibility of enclosure still exists.
3. With the rapid growth of housing prices, people's psychological expectations are relatively large, the proportion of housing is relatively small, and structural contradictions are still outstanding.
4. The supporting policies of housing social security are imperfect, with poor operability, high threshold and narrow benefit.
There are many real estate enterprises with high debt ratio.
6. Second-hand houses have not been released, the supply is insufficient, and the market needs to be standardized.
7. Lack of integrity of real estate agents.
8. The compensation and resettlement for demolition is unreasonable, and the disputes over urban house demolition are constant.
9. Ideas need to be changed. The rental ratio in developed areas is 40%, that in France is 37%, that in Britain is 34%, that in Singapore is 30%, and that in the United States is 28%. This situation is conducive to the flow of population and has positive significance for moderate investment in housing.
One of the core of all these problems lies in the "land finance" of local governments, that is, local governments rely on high land transfer fees to supplement local governments' fiscal revenue. Developers earn high profits, and the government charges high transfer fees to developers. High land prices and high profits (there are rumors that corruption costs are widespread) will lead to house prices exceeding 10 and 20 times the annual income of local ordinary families respectively. In this interest chain, Chinese mainland's high housing prices will continue.
Real estate trend
The repeated application of the state will not change the main tone of housing price regulation, but it seems that more and more people are queuing to see the house, and the transaction volume is gradually increasing. Not only consumers, but also some developers are beginning to look forward to the changes in the property market. Against this background, the index of non-manufacturing business activities in China in June was released yesterday, reaching 56.7%. Among them, the business activity index of the real estate industry is particularly interesting, because it has hit a new high since February 20 10.
Since June 20 12, China's economy has shown obvious signs of stabilization. For some time, all kinds of economic data were not optimistic, but the official non-manufacturing business activity index stood out in June, which was not only in the expansion range, but even increased by 1.5 percentage points compared with last month, among which the new order index reached 53.7%, a record high for the whole year. Jin Cai, vice president of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, analyzed this.
Manufacturing PMI data show that since June, China's economy has shown obvious signs of stabilization. From the perspective of non-manufacturing, there are several prominent ones-one is the real estate business activity index, and the other is the telecommunications and logistics industries. The business activity index closely related to producer services has rebounded significantly.
The real estate business activity index hit a new high of1September.
It is noteworthy that the business activity index of the real estate industry reached 58.2%, a new high since1September, while the new order index of the real estate industry ended its downward trend for nearly one and a half years and rebounded to 55.7%.
It reflects that after half a year's demand savings in the real estate sector, some rigid demand has been released.
According to official data, it is roughly estimated that the government and banks made a profit of 4791700 million yuan from real estate in 20 12 years, accounting for 75% of the annual real estate sales of 6 .4 trillion yuan. Although this simple addition calculation method has caused different opinions in the industry, it has become an indisputable fact that the government has taken away a high proportion of land transfer fees and taxes from the real estate industry. Current situation of housing market
According to the data of AOL Real Estate Company, American house prices rose slightly, which is the first increase since 2007. According to this report, the major mainstream websites in the United States believe that the national housing prices have "bottomed out". Although this growth is only 0.2%, after five years of continuous decline, Microsoft's growth is enough to show that the downward trend has changed.
Almost all the 167 markets surveyed by Zillow have seen price increases.
Stan Humphries, a senior economist at Zillow, said: "In the past four months, both house prices and forecast data have shown an upward trend, and house prices in the United States seem to have bottomed out. Although the recovery of the job market is not as fast as expected, the recovery of the housing market is taking shape. This shows that the housing market has the ability to repair itself. "
Zillow's report compares the prices of houses sold in the same area and shows that the quarterly growth is even stronger-reaching 2. 1%, which is the biggest increase since 2005. The market with the biggest price increase is the market with the biggest decline when the real estate collapses. For example, the annual increase of house prices in Phoenix is 12%.
Other experts believe that the overall rise in housing prices in the United States is caused by price bubbles in some markets.
"Strong demand, especially in California, Arizona and Nevada, has grown quite rapidly in the short term. Because many houses in these states are sold in cash, the existing valuation system in the United States makes their house prices rise faster than those in other states, "said Thomas Popick, research director of Campbell Research and analyst of housing pulsation. "But this trend increases the possibility of a housing bubble in these hot real estate markets."
As mortgage creditors turn to buy foreclosure substitutes, such as short selling, the supply of foreclosure has steadily declined. Investors want to make full use of the hot leasing market, so they must spread to other markets to find more favorable deals.
The CEO of investment company Landsmith said: "We are entering the Phoenix market too fast, and these markets will heat up. We are optimistic about eastern markets, such as Michigan and Florida. "
The Zillow index grew fastest in those previously depressed markets, such as Miami, Orlando and most parts of California. However, the index of other markets without depression is still declining, such as St. Louis (down 4% a year), Chicago (down 5.8% a year) and Philadelphia (down 3.5% a year).
Michael Feder, CEO of Radar Logic, a real estate data analysis company, said: "Those who think that house prices have bottomed out by analyzing the existing results are far from right. Not only can we not jump to conclusions according to the immediate signs, but the whole real estate situation is even more pessimistic. Real estate is still a short board. "
Radar logic also noticed the rise in house prices, but thought that only the mild weather in winter temporarily increased the demand for buying houses. This means that house prices will fall in the second half of the year. Even without the assumption of weather, they saw many other troubles.
Radar Logic's report pointed out: "On the supply side, high prices will attract financial institutions to sell more houses, so that families who could not sell their houses because of negative assets can enter the real estate market. Therefore, the supply of saleable properties will increase, which will depress house prices. On the demand side, rising house prices may reduce investment. "
Nowadays, the real estate market in the United States is mostly driven by investors, with the ratio of 1/4 to 1/3. Because the national housing price is based on the limited supply of second-hand houses, and this supply depends on the country's big banks, which makes the national housing price rise more unstable than before. Buyers of first-hand houses should account for 40% of the market, but only 1/3. And thousands of buyers who may move are trapped in the house because of negative assets or quasi-negative assets.
investment in real estate
The smartest investors in the world, including Buffett, have been paying attention to housing prices, and they expect the US housing market to continue to recover. Other types of real estate investment-including real estate investment trusts (REITs) with the property rights of shopping malls, apartment buildings, hotels and hospitals-have also become the best performing investment varieties.
For ordinary investors, this round of rebound provides them with an opportunity to rethink what proportion of their portfolios should be put on real estate investment varieties-seize the opportunity of a sector that they have completely given up and participate in it in time.
Duff Phelps Investment Management Company (Duff &; Frank Haggerty, investment manager of Phelps Investment Management, said, "After seeing the recent recovery, people naturally ask,' Did I miss the opportunity to follow up, or will there be more room for recovery in the future?' In our opinion, there is still a lot of room for the future. "Hagrid jointly manages a mutual fund of $654.38+03 billion and invests in commercial real estate companies.
It is common for people to hold such an optimistic attitude. The price of single-family houses in the United States is rising steadily. According to a report of the Joint Center for Housing Research of Harvard University in June, the new inventory of single-family houses in March 20 12 was at the lowest level in 49 years. Eric Belsky, managing director of the Joint Center for Housing Research, said that the advantage of low inventory is that all the existing inventory can be sold in less than six months, which is a watershed to measure the strength of the market in the traditional sense.
Of course, in this recession, there are some short-term signs of recovery in American housing prices. In mid-2009, the house price index of 20 cities in S&P- Kessler rose for one year, but then fell again. Robert Robert Shiller, a professor at Yale University, said that it was uncertain whether American housing prices had bottomed out.