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The State Council 65438+February 65438+February held an executive meeting, which pointed out that the CPC Central Committee and the State Council decided to popularize the experience of the construction of the (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone in a wider scope and promote the implementation of a new round of high-level opening up. China will establish three more free trade zones in Guangdong, Tianjin and Fujian.
Since the beginning of this year, as the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Free Trade Zone has been upgraded to a national-level free trade zone, the application process of Fujian Free Trade Zone has been accelerated, and the countdown to the approval of Tianjin Free Trade Zone has made the concept of "free trade zone" a hot topic in the A-share market.
In this regard, some market participants pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the concept stocks of free trade zones in various places have shown the basic pattern of "Shanghai, Tianjin, Fujian are strong and Guangdong is weak", but the concept of free trade zones still has opportunities for fermentation and performance.
Analysts pointed out that the current resurgence of enthusiasm for map speculation in the market benefited from the dual promotion of policies and market scenes. However, compared with the emergence of several rounds of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone last year, the advantages of Shanghai's pioneering experimental field are unparalleled in other regions for the time being. Therefore, investors should remain rational and blindly expect the skyrocketing market similar to last year's free trade zone.
Tianjin Free Trade Zone Area or Exceeding Expectations Three Main Lines Nuggets Concept Stocks
As an important economic center and shipping center in the north, Tianjin has always been one of the regions with the highest voice in the second batch of free trade zones. As for the latest development of Tianjin Free Trade Zone, according to a person who participated in the declaration of Tianjin Free Trade Zone, "the plan has already been approved by various ministries and sent to the State Council, and it has been revised in the middle, and it has been waiting for the final approval." It further stated, "In the investigation and communication, most leaders and senior officials agree with Tianjin's comprehensive strength and believe that Tianjin has the basic conditions to declare a free trade zone. At the same time, it is proposed that Tianjin Port [-3.6 1% capital research report] port should play a radiation effect and become an important position for the new round of opening up. "
As the second free trade zone, Tianjin officials believe that the plan of Tianjin Free Trade Zone will learn from and copy some exploration experiences of Shanghai. However, due to the characteristics of Tianjin's large proportion of state-owned enterprises and relatively underdeveloped private economy, especially the relatively backward development of modern service industry, it will explore a model of facilitating and liberalizing investment and service trade in line with the economic background of the north.
In terms of investment strategy, analysts pointed out that investment logic should pay attention to three main lines. First, the concept of free trade zone, the core of free trade zone is good for export-oriented economy, short-term bearish growth, and more land value appreciation dividends; The long-term accumulation of passenger flow and cargo flow will bring prosperity and profit to Shuang Sheng port, but the short-term stimulation is limited. From the experience of Shanghai FTZ, the establishment and promotion of FTZ has greatly promoted the appreciation of land value. Tianjin Port, which has a lot of land, deserves attention. Jinbin Development [-4.95% fund research report] is based on the investment and construction of Tianjin Binhai New Area, which is also worthy of attention. Secondly, regional development, the theme of "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei" has entered a new stage of "policy landing period" after experiencing the policy expectation period from March to April in 20 14 and the public opinion vacuum period from May to June, paying attention to Tianjin local transportation stocks, real estate stocks and environmental protection stocks. Third, the opportunity of state-owned assets reform. At present, Tianjin's state-owned assets are facing two problems: low securitization rate, serious competition among municipal enterprises and scattered resources. In the future, Tianjin's state-owned assets will be concentrated from traditional industries to modern manufacturing and logistics industries, with emphasis on shipping centers and northern logistics centers, and local infrastructure stocks are expected to benefit from this process.
Fujian Free Trade Zone: The Most Attractive Free Trade Zone
Fujian Free Trade Zone, another common name in the capital market is "Haixi Free Trade Zone". From the word "Haixi" (that is, "the west side of the Taiwan Strait"), it is not difficult to see the meaning of capital market focusing on "Taiwan Province". In fact, it is precisely because of Fujian's unique geographical and strategic advantages that it is unique in the declaration lists of many free trade zones in China, and even given political significance by the market.
Fujian is a well-deserved "dark horse" in the theme of free trade zone. From the visit of state leaders to the release of "Detailed Rules for the Pilot Operation of Foreign Exchange Management in Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone", Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone, located in eastern Fujian, has recently become a hot spot pursued by capital and media.
Hongyuan Securities [0.00% funded research report] once bluntly stated in the research report that "unlike the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, the economic zone on the west side of the Taiwan Strait has not only the significance of opening to the outside world and promoting internal reform, but also the strategic height of' serving the overall development of the country and the great cause of reunification of the motherland'."
Hongyuan Securities analyzed that the final positioning of Fujian FTZ in the future may be higher than that of Shanghai FTZ, and the policy strength will be greater than that of Shanghai FTZ. But from the perspective of investment logic, we can still refer to the logic of investing in Shanghai Free Trade Zone last year.
Judging from the current policy trend, Hongyuan Securities expects that Pingtan Island and Xiamen will become the core of the Haixi Economic Zone, so the port transportation, construction, real estate and business services sectors in this region are expected to benefit. Corresponding investment targets: Pingtan Development, Xiamen International Trade [0. 15% capital research report], Xiamen Port [-0.27% capital research report], Jianfa Co., Ltd. [- 1. 13% capital research report] and Sunshine City [-0.23% capital research report].
GF Securities [8.96% fund research report] said that on the main line of steady growth, regional revitalization is an important clue, and the concept of Haixi has its uniqueness. Investors are advised to pay attention to local real estate companies, such as Zhongfu Industry [-4.00% capital research report] and Jianfa shares; There are land reserve or traffic trading companies in Haixi area, such as Xiamen Port, Xiamen International Trade, Zhangzhou Development [-2.7 1% capital research report] and Yu Xiang Co., Ltd. [-3.36% capital research report].
Guangdong Free Trade Zone: A Good Play for Hong Kong and Macao
As early as the end of last year, it was reported that the plan of Guangdong Free Trade Zone had been formally reported to the State Council. Although the final plan has not been officially announced, the market has high hopes for the Guangdong Free Trade Zone. Orient securities said that Guangdong FTZ will probably make full use of the advantages of Guangdong and Hong Kong, upgrade Guangdong's existing economy in the service field and play a role in the attempt of economic integration in Greater China.
Compared with Shanghai Free Trade Zone, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Free Trade Zone highlights the characteristics of free trade between Hong Kong and Macao. For example, in terms of customs supervision, explore the establishment of a trade model of "trade before exhibition" to realize on-the-spot observation, signing contracts, handling import and export procedures and allowing goods to be exhibited; Support the park to implement the tax refund policy at the port of departure; Expand the implementation scope of "green lock", that is, extend from land ports to maritime and airport ports, and explore and promote mutual recognition of regulatory results and sharing of regulatory data in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao. On this basis, explore the mode of one inspection in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, and try out the "unilateral inspection and release".
GF Securities analysts said that Guangdong FTZ is expected to perform better than expected in negative list, land financial innovation, customs clearance facilitation and financial reform. Among them, the innovation and opening up in the financial sector will be a major attraction, and there will be good shows in qualified domestic investors, cross-border RMB business, land finance and other aspects.
It is suggested to pay attention to the core targets: GSI [4.95% fund research report], CIMC [1.27% fund research report], Yantian Port [2.23% fund research report], Fahua [0. 13% fund research report] and Li He. Combining bottom-up and top-down, we suggest that you focus on GSI, CIMC, Yantian Port, Fahua and Lihe. Other companies that can be concerned are: Zhuhai Port, Shenchi Bay, Baiyun Airport and gree real estate.
Fried maps: the hidden risks behind the story
The capital market itself is extremely sensitive to the news of the wind and grass, and the funds are concerned with the future expectations of the industry and stocks. The hype of theme and concept stocks has long been commonplace for market participants.
The hot spot of regional speculation in the stock market is a cyclical phenomenon. Whenever the market is in a strong position, but there is no other obvious speculation theme, a regional plate with immediate theme is vulnerable to the speculation of the main force of hot money. We should pay attention to three points when speculating in regional plates: First, we should consciously predict economic policies and major events in some regions in advance; Second, we need to pay attention to the technical trend of leading varieties in some active regional plates; Third, sensitive to unexpected news and sensitive to changes in related stocks.
The industry believes that the "hype" in the A-share market has logic to follow. The mainstream sentiment in the market this year focuses on the release of the reform dividend, so we need to pay special attention to the policy direction. The reason why the Free Trade Zone and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in the regional theme have increased significantly is because they meet market expectations and speculation logic.
Many market veterans interviewed gave special tips on "market sentiment" and "market expectation". Due to the asymmetry of information and funds, ordinary retail investors may not be able to accurately grasp the "market sentiment". In this regard, Huarong said that it is really difficult for ordinary investors to properly grasp the timing of big themes. It is difficult for them to predict the news, so they can only chase it at the first time according to the main hype on the first day of the hot spot explosion.
Here, I borrow a description from the organization. "Regional plate speculation is a combination of low valuation, low absolute stock price and big story target. Layout in advance needs to bear the time cost, and blindly chasing the wind needs to bear the cost of money and unpredictable risks. "