Looking at commercial vehicles again, in June, 5438+ 10, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 336,5438+0,000 and 320,000 respectively, down 33.4% from the previous month, down 28. 1% from the same period last year, down 65,438+00.5% and 7.5% from the same period last year. Among the main varieties of commercial vehicles, the production and sales of trucks and buses showed a rapid decline compared with the same period of last year, and the decline of buses was more obvious.
Does the sharp drop in production and sales mean the decline of the automobile market?
The irrational decline of the market includes many factors. First, because some car demand was released in February last year, this year 1 month caught up with the Spring Festival holiday, the working days were reduced compared with previous years, the effective sales time was shortened, and the number of days for enterprises to start work was also reduced compared with previous years. Therefore, it is inevitable that automobile production and sales will decline in June from April to October, but another important reason for the irrational decline is the sudden decline at the beginning of this year.
/kloc-since the end of October, in order to prevent and control the development of COVID-19 epidemic, the whole country has implemented large-scale prevention and control measures, postponed the resumption of work, and implemented large-scale independent isolation, resulting in a collective decline in automobile production and sales. The stoppage of automobile enterprises has an impact on production, and the interruption of parts suppliers has brought crisis to China and even the world automobile industry, which has a certain impact on automobile production; Isolation and preventive measures have reduced many potential purchase demands, and the consumption of such goods as automobiles is bound to show a downward trend in addition to necessary purchases.
But what is the reference value of the current data? It can be used for reference, but it has little effect on trend prediction. First of all, this epidemic is an unexpected incident, and the analysis of production and marketing should be another matter, and the special situation should be analyzed in detail. The impact of the epidemic on production and sales was obvious from February. After all, February is a complete prevention and control month, and the impact of the epidemic is more obvious. In the first two weeks of February, the retail sales of passenger cars in China decreased by 92% year on year. The production and circulation of the automobile industry are affected, and the impact is not exactly the same.
As of February 17, 2007, the operating rate of FAW-Volkswagen brand has reached 67%, and some Toyota car factories in Changchun and Tianjin have also started construction. Affected by the epidemic, Dongfeng Motor Company headquartered in Wuhan includes Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Nissan and Dongfeng Renault. Still anxiously waiting for the resumption of work; This directly affects the production and sales data of various brands, and these objective factors are uncertain factors with the development of the epidemic, so the current data is not of much reference value.
The extremely abnormal market performance is a wake-up call.
Not only is the sales volume distorted, but there is also a serious abnormal development of the automobile sales structure. What signal does this extremely abnormal market performance reveal to us? Some analysts believe that this is a signal that the passenger car market is declining.
Although the reference value of the current data for future prediction is not 100% objective and valuable, it still reveals some signals, which sounds an alarm for the automobile market. According to the statistical analysis of Dacheng Automobile Information Consulting Center in Zheng Zheng, Beijing, the national passenger car market in June 2006 was 28410.60 billion yuan, up-10.3% year-on-year. These data show a decline in spending power. In June 5438+ 10, the average sales price of passenger cars reached177,000 yuan, up 1.4? 10,000 yuan, the increase in the average sales price shows that the consumption level has risen sharply.
From a more direct point of view, the market demand for high-end passenger cars is positive, while the consumption of low-end cars below 80 thousand yuan is seriously insufficient. In terms of market segments, only the growth rate of the mid-end market (-22.4%) of 90,000-654.38+09,000 yuan is basically consistent with the performance of the passenger car market, and the coldness of the low-end market and the fierceness of the high-end market form a sharp polarization contrast.
Some people think that this is the performance brought by the ordinary "consumption upgrade", so we don't have to care too much. However, in practice, we should consider the abnormal performance of high-end market under special time and special factors. What is reflected behind this is that the Spring Festival holiday has not affected the enthusiasm of high-net-worth people to buy cars, while more and more low-income groups have lost their enthusiasm for buying cars.
This part of the group that lost their enthusiasm for buying cars is the employees who failed to return to work in time due to the epidemic. The epidemic first reduced their confidence in buying, on the other hand, the overall economic impact brought by the epidemic also reduced their enthusiasm for buying cars. The contrarian growth of the high-end market also includes some factors in a specific period, such as the short-term prosperity brought by various preferential policies introduced by manufacturers to discharge inventory.
Therefore, both the "false prosperity" against the trend and the irrational "plunge" should be paid attention to, and car companies should pay attention to and be alert to the hidden signals behind their thinking.
How to make a comeback after the epidemic?
On the policy side, on February 6th, china automobile dealers association issued an "Initiative Letter on Providing Financial Services to Automobile Dealers and Pointing out the Operating Policies during the Epidemic Prevention and Control Period" to relevant automobile manufacturers. Call on all automobile manufacturers to take active and pragmatic measures to provide support and decompression measures for dealer partners to fight the epidemic and resume operations, and maintain the healthy operation of the channel network. It is hoped that all production enterprises will jointly provide financial support to their affiliated financial companies and extend the interest-free period; Adjust the rebate policy, speed up the examination and approval, and cash the rebate; Reduce the annual procurement indicators and assessment indicators.
First of all, the government sets an example, focusing on increasing monetary and credit support in the big environment to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity; The Ministry of Commerce encourages all localities to increase the traditional automobile purchase restriction index, introduce policies and measures to further stabilize automobile consumption, stimulate automobile market consumption by relaxing car purchase restrictions and introducing a series of preferential subsidies, reduce the impact of the epidemic on automobile consumption, and ease the pressure on the automobile market. For example, Guangdong introduced measures to encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax the car lottery and auction indicators.
This epidemic filtering has magnified some shortcomings of car companies in production and sales, which is not a bad thing for car companies. It is a long-term development plan to find out the shortcomings, fill the gaps and give solutions to the problems.
Mr. Jia mentioned that in the market, as the main force, major enterprises should learn from them and actively improve their sales models. Polaris's online sales model is a good example. The offline exhibition hall form and online sales use Geely's dealer network to provide after-sales service, which saves costs while maintaining brand image. Polaris's sales and service separation model is undoubtedly a better sales model in the market now, which is worth learning from car companies. For Honda, the future production layout should be more extensive: for car companies that rely too much on other brand parts, they should think about how to continuously optimize costs and improve efficiency, and reduce the impact of external factors on their supply chain, because they should know that they are trump cards whenever they are strong.
At the same time, both the policy and the market scene are exerting their strength, expecting the future auto market to achieve a headwind turnaround.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.