Want to ask the answer of real estate, you can ask me an absolutely reasonable explanation. Please read it patiently (it is estimated that there are thousands of words). After reading it, you will understand when the house price will be normalized.
Those things about real estate are very vague if they are practical, so I want to give you a detailed explanation from beginning to end, so that you can fundamentally understand the real estate price in China.
First, what is a house?
There are two kinds of housing, the first is affordable housing; The second is commercial housing.
Affordable housing is a house built by the government with state-owned land, which is generally divided into affordable housing, low-rent housing and shed-to-house reform. Residents have no ownership of the house, and the house price is relatively cheap. Generally, the price of affordable housing is set at 6 times of the local per capita annual income, but it cannot be resold. If it is sold, it can be sold back to the government at the original price. The construction of affordable housing aims to achieve the goal of everyone having a house to live in, which is also the basic obligation of a normal government (to ensure citizens' education in food, clothing, housing and transportation).
Commercial housing is another concept. The owner of the commercial house owns the ownership of the house and the land (except in China, it is the land use right), and the wealth brought by the appreciation of the private house and the private land is also owned by the individual (the tax paid after the wealth is called property tax). Therefore, commercial housing is a typical financial product and a normal investment channel.
Second, the relationship between commercial housing and affordable housing in general countries.
Just now I mentioned the property tax. Yes, the property tax is the key point between commercial housing and affordable housing.
In order to achieve the goal of housing for all, the government must build affordable housing for the middle and lower classes. I'll give you a place to live first, and then it's up to you to decide whether to make more efforts to buy a commercial house or spend as much as you want. ) So how does the government get the funds to build affordable housing? Property tax, of course!
So what is the property tax? It can be understood that the owners of commercial housing pay part of the tax on the profits they get from land appreciation.
Paying the property tax itself will not bring any adverse effects to the commercial housing owners, because the land has increased in value, and only by earning money can the commercial housing owners reach the tax payment standard, so they will be willing to pay taxes to the government, and the government will only have the funds to build affordable housing after asking for the property tax. So in general, the relationship between affordable housing and commercial housing is * * *. The higher the price of commercial housing, the more perfect the construction of affordable housing, which benefits not only the construction of affordable housing, but also the local public security and education. Therefore, it is no exaggeration to say that a reasonable property tax is related to the living environment of a city.
However, this is the general situation. China is not suitable for levying property tax because of its special circumstances. I will explain it in detail later.
Third, the current situation and reasons of China real estate.
I said just now that the relationship between affordable housing and commercial housing is * * *. But it is quite special in China. In different countries, the ratio of affordable housing to commercial housing is different, some are 8: 2, some are 9: 1, and some are 7: 3, but there is a basic point, that is, the premise of affordable housing comes first, and then the commercial housing market, while China is just the opposite, 1.
So why are there so few affordable houses in our country?
We should all remember that nowadays, after 80s, many parents lived in units when they were children. This housing allocation is affordable housing. When we were young, the proportion of affordable housing was 90%. But now it's basically gone. Why?
That should start from 98!
In China in 1998, due to the impact of reform and opening up (see Baidu Encyclopedia: Laid-off), the laid-off crisis reached its peak, with high unemployment rate and low employment rate. At that time, the government thought of a way to stop the construction of affordable housing and increase the construction of commercial housing, and then let people who should have bought affordable housing buy commercial housing at their own expense. After the government took the land transfer fee, it first invested in infrastructure construction, beautified the city, and then attracted investment. In the process of construction, many jobs will naturally be created and the employment problem will be alleviated. After the employment rate is reported, the surrounding industries (such as reinforced concrete) will develop, the retail business will be easy, and there will be more employees, so that China's economy will have a breathing space. However, in this way, the housing problem will inevitably appear.
Due to the stagnant construction of affordable housing, the rigid demand for commercial housing has become increasingly prominent, and commercial housing is also a financial product. It is terrible to give a financial product a strong rigid demand. As I said just now, commercial housing itself is a financial product, which is different from fried mung bean garlic, which belongs to people's livelihood food. It is illegal to speculate on this thing, which is a violation of the Anti-Monopoly Law. However, commercial housing is originally a financial product, and the role of financial products originally includes investment purposes. Although real estate speculation is unreasonable, it is reasonable and legal. Young people born in the 1980s have reached the age of marriage, and the demand for housing is growing. Therefore, house prices have exploded in recent years.
Therefore, judging from the causes of real estate problems, the root cause of real estate problems today is that the construction of affordable housing is not in place. Although China has experienced the crisis of being laid off, it is helpless to quench its thirst with real estate, but it is the government's policy of taking land for dinner in recent years, which I think is very unreasonable.
Fourth, state-owned monopoly enterprises are the driving force of housing prices in China.
Just now, I mentioned that the reason for high housing prices is that financial products have injected strong hard demand, and the source of hard demand lies in poor employment rate, which is also the purpose of the country to give up the construction of affordable housing. Therefore, the bottom line lies in the employment rate.
Therefore, the fundamental solution to high housing prices lies in how to improve the employment rate. In the present form, I am afraid it is not optimistic.
Private enterprises are the main employment providers in China. The living conditions of private enterprises are extremely worrying. Private enterprises in China provide almost 90% jobs in China, but they survive between foreign-funded enterprises and state-owned institutions.
Energy, information and mining, which represent the industrial revolution, are monopolized by state-owned units. What's more, these monopoly enterprises monopolize the areas that ordinary people must consume. They not only monopolize, but also earn foreign exchange and seek profits most. In foreign countries, there are no public institutions, only private enterprises and government agencies. Government agencies are completely nonprofit. Moreover, our organization is not only profitable, but also involved in China real estate.
We can imagine what will happen if monopoly enterprises are opened.
The first is a large amount of private capital investment. Due to the investment of a large number of investors, the number of enterprises has increased significantly. When enterprises increase, the number of employees will increase, and the consumption of ordinary people will be greatly reduced. At present, our oil price belongs to the world's leading level, and broadband, hydropower and communication all belong to the world's leading level. Therefore, opening up a monopoly market is an act of killing three birds with one stone. Last year, due to regulation, some real estate funds left real estate to seek other investment channels. However, due to the strength of monopoly enterprises and the downturn of the real economy, these funds eventually returned to real estate. Therefore, opening up real estate is a top priority for our country. And our private enterprises have a good living space, profits increase, national income will naturally increase, private enterprises also have enough research funds, the technical level will also improve, and the competitiveness of private enterprises and foreign companies in China will also be improved.
Fifth, the current regulation and property tax can't solve the housing price problem in China.
Many economists and ordinary people call for state regulation, and property tax has been introduced. Personally, I feel that neither regulation nor property tax can solve the problem at this stage, just shattered glass.
As I mentioned just now, the source of high housing prices lies in the poor employment rate, which comes from the sluggish market and the narrow living space of private enterprises. Therefore, regulation and property tax can only alleviate the superficial phenomenon of housing prices at most, but can not cure the root causes.
At present, the implementation of property tax in China is even more nonsense.
I have four reasons to oppose the implementation of property tax in China at this stage.
First, the policy is just blocking. As I said just now, the reason for high housing prices lies in the deterioration of the economy and the narrow living space of enterprises. Controlling housing prices, whether it is the recently publicized "Chinese property tax" or the previous purchase restriction order, belongs to the process of "blocking" Dayu's water control. Facts have proved that after the "hot money" of real estate was driven out of real estate through regulation and control policies last year, due to the lack of reliable investment projects, hot money returned to real estate after some twists and turns, so it can be seen that it can't be stopped! Therefore, in the current environment, the introduction of property tax can not play a role in regulating housing prices at all, because the symptoms are not cured, and there is a risk that property tax will crush China's economy!
Second, the introduction of property tax may not necessarily benefit the homeless, nor may it be effective.
This reason should be very sufficient. In fact, some homeowners have already paid taxes when buying a house, and the taxes paid are still very high, which is also a property tax. Re-expropriation is equivalent to repeated taxation, and the National Development and Reform Commission clearly stipulates that 10% of the land transfer fee must be used for the construction of affordable housing. If calculated according to this ratio, plus the personal income tax in the process of housing transfer, it is possible to achieve the goal of housing for all (it is estimated that the housing problem of 300 million people can be met in four years), but last year, none of the provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China achieved the goal of building low-rent housing, which shows the degree of local government's resistance to the policy.
That's easy to analyze. If you have no money to build affordable housing, you will collect taxes. In order to balance the distribution of wealth, that is another reason. The problem is, you have money and you don't build it. You are not urging the local government, but to increase taxes. Is this reasonable? Ordinary people are already facing great pressure of life, the cost of living is rising, and inflation is becoming more and more serious. Moreover, China is the country with the heaviest tax revenue, with almost no tax revenue. I would like to ask, can ordinary people afford to increase taxes? When you increase taxes, have you considered reducing taxes elsewhere?
The third reason is to accelerate social contradictions. Homeowners and homeowners will be opposed because of property tax.
Reason 4: Property tax can easily lead to economic stagflation in China. This consequence is very serious.
First, the banking system may collapse.
Second, directly transfer the middle class back to the low-income class. The pillar of a country is often not the rich but the middle class. Whether a country is strong or not also depends on the proportion of the middle class. If the property makes a hard landing, it is equivalent to eliminating the middle class.
Third, the destruction of the middle class will affect all walks of life. Those businesses that consume the middle class will inevitably be implicated, and then continue to spread to other industries. Since then, the financial crisis has begun!
I think if there is a property tax in China, it is not legal at all, because most of the house value is land. Who owns the land in China? No, it's all land use rights. Since the land belongs to the state, how can the local government go to your house to tax the state-owned land? For another example, in other countries, oil is found under the houses of ordinary people, and oil belongs to individuals. In China, please cooperate with national laws and regulations to move!
Finally, back to your question.
In the previous answer, we have learned that the root of high housing prices lies in the poor economic environment and the need to open up the solutions of monopoly enterprises, so we will come back to your question.
First of all, if you want to own a house, you have to be clear about what kind of house you want to own. If you have a successful career, but you can't afford tens of thousands of square meters of commercial housing, then you really should complain about the government. It is the government's inaction that causes you to be able to buy commercial housing but can't afford it. If your income is not ideal in the same city, then you put your hopes on the government to build affordable housing. Personally, if one day the government decides to fundamentally solve the real estate problem. Your housing problem should be solved. As for regulation and property tax, I suggest that you don't hope for it.