In May 18, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes of residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in April. The data shows that in April, the price increase in first-tier cities slowed down, while the price increase in second-and third-tier cities expanded, and some second-tier cities entered the overheating range. Second-tier cities such as Hefei, Xiamen, Nanjing and Suzhou are known as the "four little dragons" of the property market because of the recent alarming increase in house prices.
Since the end of last year, the real estate market in China has gone through a relatively depressed adjustment period. After a period of differentiation, the real estate market in different regions has shown obvious signs of rising, which is worrying.
Shenzhen is the leader of this round of property market rise, and house prices have rebounded first since the first half of 20 15. At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference identified real estate destocking as an important task of economic work in 20 16 years. Later, measures such as reducing the down payment ratio, reducing deed tax and business tax were introduced to encourage the purchase of houses. At the same time, local governments also frequently take destocking measures. In the first quarter of this year, under the influence of policy spillover, housing prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen soared as a whole. In March, first-tier cities introduced real estate control policies to cool the property market. Affected by factors such as high housing prices and purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, housing demand quickly turned to second-tier cities and the surrounding areas of first-tier cities. As a result, hot cities such as Hefei, Xiamen and Nanjing have emerged in second-tier cities, the so-called "four little dragons" in the property market, while in areas close to first-tier cities, such as Langfang and Baoding around Beijing, the price increase is also very obvious.
At the beginning of this round of property market rise, there is an obvious feature, that is, the trend differentiation in different regions. At the end of the first quarter of this year, after a few months of popularity in first-tier cities, the overall effect of destocking in the country was not satisfactory, and the inventory of new houses in some third-and fourth-tier cities even hit a new low. In response to this differentiation trend, the Ministry of Land and Resources even issued a notice in April, requiring all localities to implement effective land use adjustment policies in combination with the real estate destocking situation, and reduce or even stop the supply of housing land for cities with high real estate inventory.
However, if we observe this round of property market rise from a longer period of time, its initial differentiation may be just an illusion, and the real feature of this round of rise is probably the rising market. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in April, the proportion of rising cities reached 93%, which is a "general increase" situation again after 28 months. Specifically observing the third-tier cities in this "list", their house prices turned from falling to rising year-on-year, and began to rise. For the third-and fourth-tier cities with high destocking pressure, it is not only a matter of easing at present, but also does not rule out the possibility that the "four tigers" will follow the rise in housing prices in second-tier cities.
The final performance of a round of rise is the general rise of the property market, but such a result obviously violates the "initial heart." Real estate destocking is not just selling houses. Housing is a special commodity, and its basic function is to live. To solve the problem of real estate inventory in third-and fourth-tier cities, enough people must find jobs and settle down locally, and enjoy equal public resources and convenient infrastructure. The essence of destocking is real estate speculation, which not only does not help to solve the long-term development problems of local economy and society, but also may lead to market risks and new sequelae.
The property market does not need "four little dragons", let alone "four little dragons". Recently, The Authoritative Person made another interview about China's economy, which attracted people's attention. "Authorities" pointed out that China's economic operation can't be U-shaped, let alone V-shaped, but L-shaped, and this L-shaped trend is a stage, not a year or two. Under the expectation of such macroeconomic trends, the emergence of the "four little dragons" in the current property market is undoubtedly out of date. In terms of real estate, "authorities" clearly pointed out that houses are for people to live in and should be "destocked" through people's urbanization, rather than "destocked" by adding leverage. The cooling signal of real estate leverage contained in this statement deserves market attention. The fiery property market will inevitably lead to stricter control policies, and consumers involved in it cannot avoid possible market risks.
Commentator of this newspaper? Fan Dafa
(The above answers were published on 20 16-05-20. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
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