In his view, on the first anniversary of the financial crisis, many strange things have happened in the property market: some industrialists don't open factories to buy luxury houses, some small investors who don't understand the property market buy one set to earn another, some big investors switch to intermediary bosses, and some people who bought houses at a high level in 2007 have to die to get through the pain. 100% just need to buy when the property price is low, but don't buy when the result is the highest ... "Property market. Lao Chen said.
"The Japanese CD tells me that the property market has changed."
Looking back at this round of property market rise, it is not difficult to find that not all professionals seized the opportunity, but more people seized the opportunity after seeing the property market pick up. Rulu (a pseudonym), an investor who claims to be an absolute "rookie", belongs to such a person who mistakenly hit the property market.
"If I didn't see that the new coastline I wanted to buy on the opening day was sold out, I wouldn't have the idea of buying a house or speculating in real estate." Rulu said. He told reporters that in March this year, the day before the opening of the third phase of Shenye New Shoreline, he went to the sales site to queue up to buy three rooms. As a result, I was told that "there is no chance to queue up" because the number supply ratio has exceeded 3: 1. "This is the first time since the property market adjustment. According to the market of the first two months, it is too late to rank the numbers on the opening day. I also went on the opening day. A sea of people, packed. I was confused at that time. I have a hunch that I am back in 2007. "
Rulu, who thought he was "back in 2007", divided the money originally intended to buy three houses at one time into three parts and bought three sets in Baoan Central District, Nanshan Central District and Futian South respectively. They were all sold in June, July and August this year and earned nearly 800 thousand. "If I buy Portofino's mansion, gee, one set is worth at least three sets."
Policy is considered as the standard to judge the property market.
In the eyes of professionals, Rulu's hand may be a little late. In the intermediary circle that reporters are familiar with, many intermediaries have already made moves before and after the Spring Festival, and their targets are all locked in luxury houses. Boss Yang, who runs an industry in Baoan, is not a professional, but he stepped on the right point and bought the right house.
At the end of last year 10, the state issued a new policy to rescue the market, and it was from this time that Teacher Yang began to pay attention to the property market. Before that, he only focused on his own career. "People who do business will be sensitive to policies because we understand the decisive significance of national policies. This standard is universally applicable, so if there is a policy to suppress the property market at the national level and the attitude is clear, don't doubt that it is time to take a shot. " Mr. Yang said.
Mr. Yang told reporters that the financial crisis had a great impact on his industry. Unable to maintain the profit of this industry, he had to turn his investment channels to other industries. At this time, the introduction of the new property market policy made him see the opportunities in the real estate industry. "I have always been optimistic about Shanhaiguan's mansion. In Shenzhen, real estate with scarce resources is always available. " Most of the luxury houses he bought were OCT, Xiangmihu and Hongshuwan. At present, only two sets have been sold, earning 4 million. "Now the house price is high, and the voice of the people is very high, but the country still does not crack down. I think there are indications that the inflation talk circulating in the market is well-founded. I want to keep the remaining units. If inflation really comes, real estate will still preserve its value. " Mr. Yang said.
"There is another chance to buy a house before the end of the year."
How to judge the property market node? The introduction of favorable policies and the sharp warming of the market are the most common answers given by "enlightened people" in the interview. But the chances of history repeating itself will not be too great. For thousands of buyers, it seems more important now. A number of experts pointed out the direction for property buyers wandering at the crossroads.
Liang Wenhua, managing director of Shihua Real Estate, believes that buyers are expected to wait until a wave of price reductions in the property market before the Lunar New Year. His judgment is that the middle and late period of 10 after the autumn fair may not be a good opportunity. "Judging from the current situation, it is speculated that the new plate of the upcoming Autumn Fair will still raise prices, especially in areas where there is no new plate supply in the short term, such as Futian and Luohu. Therefore, instead of buying a house now, it is better to buy a house after the autumn fair. If the time is longer, the new price increase will bring about a decrease in trading volume. Buyers expect to encounter a wave of small price cuts in the off-season around the Spring Festival, so there is another chance before the end of the year. "
Wang Shijie, director of marketing department of Zhongyuan Real Estate, suggested that buyers choose to buy houses in emerging areas. Longhua and Baoan Central District are the areas he recommended. The insiders of Hotpush Pass suggest buying properties with rental returns in Futian South and luxury houses in traditional areas in Pass. Wang Shijie also said that buyers don't have to stare at the limited primary housing market. They might as well look at second-hand houses, because "the price of new houses is fierce, the second-hand houses are relatively moderate, and there are bamboo shoots from time to time".
"Don't trust developers when buying a house, don't be superstitious about real estate agents, don't be superstitious about media reports, and believe in yourself. Buy it if you want. But whatever the property market, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Personal judgment on the property market is always subjective. It doesn't matter whether you have a house or not, but if you invest, don't put all your eggs in one basket. " The aforementioned intermediary Lao Chen said.
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Anti-inflation: it is better to start a company than to buy a house.
Mr. Zhou originally had his own foreign trade company in Chegong Temple. His company has more than 50 employees at most. However, under the economic crisis in 2008, his company suffered a great impact. Now Mr. Zhou's factory employees have all been dismissed, and the original company has become a mom-and-pop shop.
According to Mr. Zhou, due to the reduction of orders, all the funds originally invested in the industry have now become bank deposits. "Bank interest rates are too low and inflation is intensifying. My funds are in the bank, not only have no income, but also are constantly depreciating. The real economy I am familiar with has been hit hard again, and I don't know which areas to invest in to preserve and increase value. I know nothing about the stock market. If you want to go, you still have to choose the property market. " In this case, in order to prevent inflation and preserve value, Mr. Zhou has bought many houses since last year.
"I used to pay little attention to the real estate market. When I first started investing in a house, I was also worried about investment risks. But considering the value preservation performance of the house itself, we have to crustily skin of head to explore. " Mr. Zhou told reporters like this. At the beginning of this year, he bought a house at one time. With the improvement of the market, the house bought by Mr. Zhou appreciated rapidly. Such market changes have reduced Mr. Zhou's original worries about the real estate market. So, in the following time, Mr. Zhou bought several houses one after another and invested all his idle funds in the property market.
Faced with the house that has appreciated, Mr. Zhou has no intention of changing hands to sell the house. Mr. Zhou told reporters: "I entered the property market to avoid inflation, not for speculation. Although the current house has appreciated, it will continue to enter the property market after changing hands. Instead of this, it is better to hold these properties for a long time. "
Solution: The house was sold long ago, but at least it didn't lose money.
Mr. Lin is a real estate investor and has bought and sold many houses in Shenzhen. After the first few profits, Mr. Lin bought many houses. When house prices fell in 2007, Mr. Lin's house was deeply locked up. "In the crazy market at that time, my funds were basically invested in the property market. After that, the market was bad and I was under great financial pressure. When I was in trouble, I didn't even have the money to repay the bank loan. " It is understood that Mr. Lin, who is already short of funds, has a growing funding gap under the impact of the economic crisis in 2008. At that time, in order to repay the bank loan, Mr. Lin, who was deeply involved, sold two houses at a low price and cashed in.
"After I sold two houses at a loss, the financial pressure eased, so I had to wait and expect the property market to pick up as soon as possible." So Mr. Lin, who was reluctant to cut meat, left the rest of the house until this year. At the beginning of this year, house prices rose, and Mr. Lin saw hope. At this time, in order to alleviate the financial pressure, he quickly sold a house. "In fact, the house I sold at the beginning of the year was still at a loss. I was not optimistic about the market at that time and even considered selling all the houses at that time. "
"The later development of the property market surprised me. House prices have been rising all the way, showing signs of returning to 2007. With the improvement of the market, many of my houses have profit margins. " Mr. Lin, who had experienced the taste of quilt cover, accepted it as soon as he saw it, and soon sold all his houses. According to Mr. Lin, although the current housing price is high, he does not regret the successful solution. "The market is unpredictable, so it's good that I can get away with it. The economic crisis that originally made me desperate has now brought me the opportunity to solve the problem. "
Bottom-hunting: "Nothing, buy it if you feel right."
Ms. Sun has worked in Shenzhen for many years and has always wanted to buy a house of her own. In 2007, due to the crazy rise in house prices, people robbed houses in large quantities, and she also had the experience of paying a deposit before the opening. Later, with the decline in housing prices, Ms. Sun has been looking at the house, but she has never made a move.
Until the end of last year, Ms. Sun was optimistic about a house in Qianhai. "This house meets my requirements, and the area is close to where I work. The most important thing is that the price is more suitable. " Although she felt that the house price was more suitable, Ms. Sun hesitated for a long time. According to Ms. Sun, she hesitated at that time because there were many houses for her to choose from. Second, I hope that house prices will continue to decline.
"I clearly saw my favorite house and didn't buy it for the sake of falling house prices, but I was worried that the house would be bought by others. After a few days of anxiety, I decided to buy it. Although the overall house price was still falling at that time, I finally saw a satisfactory house at an affordable price. Anyway, I live by myself and buy it if the price is right. " So at the end of last year, Ms. Sun completed her multi-year plan to buy a house.
Soon after Ms. Sun bought a house, the Shenzhen property market improved, and both the number of marriages and the transaction price rebounded. With the further improvement of the market this year, the house bought by Ms. Sun has appreciated a lot. Regarding the appreciation of the house, Ms. Sun said that she did not care too much. "I want to live in this house, and I won't sell it for the time being. However, I feel very happy when I see that my house is constantly appreciating. I feel very lucky to buy a satisfactory house at the lowest valley. "
Profit from investment: buying a luxury house earns a lot of money.
For Mr. Wang, the rise in house prices this year has provided a good opportunity for his investment, and he has also gained a good income from this opportunity. It is understood that since the end of last year, Mr. Wang has successfully bought and sold three luxury houses, from which he has gained a lot of income.
According to Mr. Wang, his investment profit in this round of property market rise originated from an accident. "I was not optimistic about the property market this year. It is expected that the property market may not improve until next year, but an accident at the end of last year allowed me to enter the property market. " It is understood that at the end of last year, a friend of Mr. Wang who worked in a real estate agency told him a set of bamboo shoots in Xiangmihu. "At that time, the owners were eager to cash out at a low price, and I happened to have idle funds. I bought this house when I thought of the preservation of Xiangmihu Mansion. "
After buying this house, Mr. Wang doesn't intend to change hands in the short term, but wants to hold it for a long time to realize the preservation of funds. But about a month after he bought the house, the house price there began to rise sharply. "At that time, I saw business opportunities. I wanted to continue to hold the house for a while, but I needed funds to continue investing. So I cashed the house knowing that it would continue to appreciate. " Subsequently, Mr. Wang used the cash to buy two more houses in Xiangmihu area.
With the improvement of the market, the price of luxury houses in Xiangmihu area is also rising. During this period, Mr. Wang successfully sold two houses in his hand. Mr. Wang, who succeeded in making a profit, said: "I planned to speculate at the beginning, so as long as the profit space is right, I will make a decisive move." It is difficult to grasp the market successfully, so I am not greedy. The house originally intended for short-term real estate speculation should be sold as early as possible to avoid falling asleep. "
I didn't buy it: I wanted to wait and I was afraid to take the last stick.
Ginger is just a need that the demand for changing houses has been suppressed for nearly two years. 30 years old, married, now living in a small two-bedroom apartment, which is already too crowded. For two years in a row, he paid close attention to the property market, but hesitated and didn't buy it. He told reporters that in the year with last September as the time axis, he had the impulse to buy a house three times.
In the second half of 2008, house prices fell to his heart. "At that time, my daughter-in-law and I just got married, and we especially wanted to buy a house emotionally, but our reason has been restraining ourselves and convincing ourselves that house prices will still fall. It is not worthwhile to buy now. " Ginger said. Of course I didn't buy it.
Lao Jiang told reporters that his second move was at the end of last year, when the state issued a rescue policy. But what he said is not the tax and interest rate concessions provided by the state, but the fear that property prices will rise again. "At that time, I had an ominous feeling that house prices might go up. But later, I also looked at several houses sporadically and found that not only did the price increase, but the intermediary kept calling to recommend bamboo shoots. " I still didn't buy it.
As a result, the property market has changed a lot since the Spring Festival. New houses have CDs, and second-hand houses have skyrocketed for no reason. "I feel that this market is crazy. I looked at 8000 yuan/square meter and jumped to 1 1, 000 yuan/square meter. Seeing that the advertising industry I am engaged in is getting more and more depressed, the house is getting more and more expensive. To be honest, I didn't dare to buy it, and I don't want to buy it. " Lao Jiang told reporters that at the end of 2008, his cash was enough to pay 70% of the house price, and now 50% is not enough; In 2008, he wanted to buy Baoan Central District, but now his eyes are still looking back at Xixiang, because "I don't want the house to bring pressure to myself".
"I want to wait and see the next step. I will make a move after another round of decline. The current price, alas, is too high. I don't want to win the last stick like in 2007. But after the lessons of 2008, if real estate prices fall, I will shoot. " Ginger said.
Chasing high: buying a house is because you have to buy it.
It was this year that Jeremy Lin changed from a firm "air force" to a "multi-army". At the beginning of September, the second-hand house he bought in Nanshan Central District has just been delivered. On the day he joined the company, he invited his post-80s friends to get together and urged everyone to buy a house like him, because "the house must be bought, and the house price will go up later".
However, in the second half of last year, he didn't think so at that time. His parents had been urging him to buy a house and get married, but at that time, Lin Jiajie firmly believed that the property price could not go up and was "in no hurry". Marco Lin told reporters that when house prices began to rise in February this year, he thought it was a "bluff". In April and May, when house prices rose sharply, he began to sit still. In June, the house price was in by going up one flight of stairs. In July and August, the property market stabilized slightly, and the family began to put pressure on it.
"I didn't believe it at first, because the financial crisis is just around the corner. Although my industry has not been affected, several college students around me are on the verge of unemployment. I don't believe that the economy is riddled with holes and house prices can go up. But in China, you can't believe many things. " Marco Lin told reporters that in August, he began to look at the house with his girlfriend. However, any house with a slightly lower market price has been booked before it can get there. The market demand under high housing prices seems to be still very strong, which further deepens his concept that "housing prices are hard to fall".
Like many post-80s generation born in big cities, Kyle Lin bought the house only after "gnawing at the old". According to Kyle Lin, it is really necessary to buy a house when you are old. "I bought a house because I had to buy it; The reason why I chose to buy a house at this high level is because I can't see signs of falling property prices and I can't wait to buy it at that time. " Jeremy Lin said.