Look at the relationship between house price and consumption from three aspects. We can observe it from three aspects.
Rising house prices will accelerate the growth rate of commercial housing sales area, thus increasing the sales growth rate of household appliances, furniture, architectural decoration and other commodities related to commercial housing. From 20 16 to 17, the growth rate of commercial housing sales increased significantly. At the same time, the sales growth rate of household appliances and furniture is higher than 20 15 and remains above 10%. By 20 18, due to the differentiation of housing prices between regions, sales increased slightly, which also slowed down the consumption growth of household appliances, furniture and architectural decoration. Consumer goods related to real estate sales growth.
Second, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute believes that rising house prices will increase the property income of buyers, especially for the high-income class with multiple suites. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of disposable income of 20% high-income groups in China has increased significantly since 20 16. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the per capita disposable income of the high-income group, which accounted for 20% of the population in 20 17, reached 64,934 yuan, with a growth rate of 9.5%, but the median per capita disposable income of the national residents only increased by 7.3%, and the income of migrant workers only increased by 6.4%. The high income growth of high-income earners has led to a double-digit rebound in the growth rate of high-end consumption, such as high-end liquor, cigarettes, luxury passenger cars and other luxury consumption. For example, in 20 18, the car sales decreased negatively, and in June of 5438+0, the passenger car sales decreased 17.7% year-on-year, but the sales of German, Japanese and American cars still maintained the growth momentum. According to Bain Consulting's estimation, the total sales of luxury goods in Chinese mainland market reached 23 billion euros in 20 18, an increase of 18% compared with 20 18, which is twice the growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China. Domestic residents' luxury consumption accounts for one third of the total global luxury consumption. High-end car sales maintained high growth.
The third reason of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute is that residents' consumption behavior is not only influenced by current income, but also by the expected changes of residents' assets and wealth, so the increase or decrease of wealth will also affect the changes of residents' consumption confidence and behavior. When house prices rise, the wealth effect will increase consumer confidence and urge residents to increase consumption; House prices have fallen, residents' consumption confidence is insufficient, and consumption has decreased. According to our statistics, the fluctuation of real estate price is about 6 months ahead of the consumer confidence index. Residents' consumption growth lacks new kinetic energy. Using the input-output table of the National Bureau of Statistics, we found that about one third of China's economic growth rate since 2008 has been directly or indirectly contributed by real estate, so it can be said that the real estate market is one of the leading forces affecting economic trends. On the one hand, it shows the importance of real estate to China's economic growth, on the other hand, it also reflects that most traditional industries except real estate are in a weak state and their contribution to residents' income is weakening. At the same time, although the development momentum of emerging industries is good, its contribution to GDP and residents' income is still small, and it is difficult to change the downward trend of residents' income growth in recent years. Moreover, the real estate stimulus is too great, which will widen and solidify the income gap of residents.