Prospect of construction machinery industry

Beijing UnionPay Information Consulting Center recently released that the construction machinery industry under the influence of the new national macro-control policy presents new characteristics, which are worth noting in the following aspects: First, the overall solvency of the industry has been affected to some extent due to the decline in corporate profitability and operational capacity, and the tight credit policy adopted by the banking industry has obviously made enterprises feel tight in funds, and some enterprises are on the verge of capital chain breakage; Second, the market regionalization is obvious and the development trend is uneven. The construction machinery industry may be at a low level in recent years this year, especially because it grew too fast in the first half of last year, and the situation in the first few months of this year is not optimistic; Third, the construction machinery industry has been affected by national policies, especially this time from fiery to relatively light. Generally speaking, the national macro-control time will not be less than two years. We believe that the investment in fixed assets in China will not be relaxed in 2005, and the demand for construction machinery will be difficult. Xue, an analyst at UniCredit, analyzed the industry data involved in the report in detail, and thought that the degree of industry correction and the time when the inflection point appeared. It also depends on the follow-up implementation of external factors of national macro-control and the affected degree of related industries. In addition, considering the low product quality, irrational competition and the scale and types of enterprises in the industry, it can be considered that there are many uncertain factors in the future development of the industry, and the medium and long-term credit risk is still relatively large. According to the tracking data in 2004, the overall loss situation of China construction machinery manufacturing industry has improved. The loss rate of the whole industry decreased from 30% in the first quarter of last year to 26% in the second quarter of 2005. The slight decrease in industry losses is not due to the improvement of the business environment and its own competitiveness, but to the increase in the number of enterprises higher than that of loss-making enterprises. From the absolute number of loss-making enterprises, it can be seen that the number of loss-making enterprises was 1 14 in the first quarter of last year, and rose to 12 1 0 in the first quarter of 2005, and fell to 1 10 in the second quarter, but during this period, three enterprises closed down. According to the numerical analysis of the National Bureau of Statistics, since the beginning of 2004, the sales profit rate, cost profit rate and return on total assets of the construction machinery industry in China have declined to varying degrees. The overall profitability of the construction machinery industry has been hit. According to the analysis of industry losses of different scales, it can be seen that large enterprises have the best operating conditions. Of the seven large enterprises, only 1 is in poor operating condition, accounting for about 14% of the total. The average loss rate of medium-sized enterprises is around 24%, and the loss situation has deteriorated. The profitability of small enterprises is poor, and the loss ratio is around 27%. In the long run, the current problems in China's construction machinery industry are temporary and phased. However, judging from the three "cold winters" we have experienced, some problems in this industry and the enterprises involved are still "stubborn" and have not been really taken seriously. In addition, through the analysis of industry-related index data, it can be found that the overall solvency of China's construction machinery industry has been affected to some extent due to the decline in corporate profitability and operational capacity. We believe that at present, the short-term solvency of construction machinery enterprises has been hit hard, and the tight credit policy adopted by the banking industry has obviously made enterprises feel tight in funds, and some enterprises are on the verge of breaking the capital chain. Through the research on the overall asset-liability ratio, the ratio of liabilities to owners' equity and the multiple of interest guarantee, we think that the long-term solvency of the industry as a whole has not been significantly affected. However, it is worth noting that the multiple of interest protection of the industry as a whole fluctuates greatly. From February 2004 to July 2005, the average interest rate multiple was 4.75, with the best level being 7.20 in the second quarter of 2004 and the lowest level being 2.76 times in the first quarter of 2005. The overall interest rate multiple shows a downward trend, further indicating that the industry is in trouble. It is understood that the main battlefield of domestic construction machinery is still concentrated in the north. There is still a big increase in North China and its surrounding areas, and it has also dropped to some extent since mid-April. The insiders believe that it may be that the project affected by the regulation last year was not completed during the year, but restarted this spring. So some markets may be driven by this part of demand. In addition, the market conditions in parts of southwest and northwest have also picked up. For example, Shaanxi Province has seen a rare sales momentum this year, which may be due to the discovery of gas fields in northern Shaanxi and other reasons, which has driven the market demand in surrounding areas. However, agents in South China and East China believe that the market is still cold, and these areas were the "hardest hit areas" regulated last year, so the wait-and-see mood in the market is still strong today, resulting in poor sales. At the same time, coal mining in Shanxi is the main reason for the hot sale of earthwork machinery such as loaders. The recent coal mine accidents have led the government to start a new round of clean-up and rectification of small coal mines, which has dropped significantly recently. Although the Shanxi market is affected by the above factors, the energy industry is one of the key industries supported by the state, and the pace of development cannot be reduced at once. For the recent sudden improvement of the market, we think we should pay close attention to the final destination of the machine, whether it is in the hands of investors, intermediate sellers or end users. People should have a good attitude towards the normal development speed, and the construction machinery industry should not grow too fast in the future. According to the professional forecast, the construction machinery industry may be at a lower level in recent years this year. Especially due to the rapid growth in the first half of last year, the situation in the first few months of this year is not optimistic. The construction machinery industry has always been influenced by national policies, and there have been similar situations in history. Especially this time, it changed from fiery to relatively light, and it is uncertain whether there will be a sharp decline in the industry caused by 1993 macro-control. However, we believe that this regulation is different from previous policy adjustments, especially compared with 1993, which is different in many aspects. First of all, in the macro-economic environment, China needs to ensure the GDP growth rate of not less than 7. 1% in order to achieve the goal of entering a well-off society as scheduled, and the fastest driving force for national economic growth is infrastructure construction.