The policy content is intriguing.
The restricted purchase areas in Dongguan are adjusted to Guancheng Street, Dongcheng Street, Cheng Nan Street, Wanjiang Street and Songshan Lake High-tech Industrial Development Zone.
In other words, except for the central area and Songshan Lake, all the other 28 towns and streets are open! There is no need to verify the qualification of purchasing houses in non-restricted areas.
So far, in half a year or so, Dongguan has issued a heavy policy for the third time and has become the most diligent city in Guangdong Province to introduce relaxation policies.
In fact, in most cities represented by Dongguan, it is very urgent to stabilize the property market. In the first half of this year, Super 175 cities issued 600 policies, and 36 cities relaxed their purchase restrictions, which is extremely rare in the history of China real estate. "
Looking back at the recent relaxation policies of several buildings in Dongguan, the demand side has continuously released many positive signals.
From May 1, you can buy a house when you settle down, and the social security limit will be cancelled for newly settled families.
/kloc-In May of 0/4, the period of exemption from value-added tax for individual housing transfer was adjusted from 5 years to 2 years. Commercial housing that has obtained the certificate of immovable property for two years can be traded and transferred, and families with two children and three children can purchase more 1 set.
On July 4, the restricted purchase area was greatly reduced, and 28 towns and streets were opened.
It can be seen from the time and intensity of the policy that Dongguan urgently needs to boost the confidence of the property market. However, judging from the actual transaction data, there is still a long way to go before the Dongguan market really stabilizes.
Look at the new housing market first.
According to CRIC data, the transaction area of new commercial housing in Dongguan in June was 230,000 square meters, down 59% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the cumulative transaction area of new commercial housing was1140,000 square meters, down 58% year-on-year, even compared with the first half of 2020, when the epidemic was the worst, the decline reached 55%.
What is the pressure on the property market in Dongguan?
According to CRIC data, since March of 20021year, the transaction scale of new commercial housing in Dongguan has been declining for 16 months in a row. In June of 2022, the decline rate reached 79%, the highest in the past four years, and the average decline rate in the following months was about 52%.
In the first half of the year, the Dongguan market had a strong wait-and-see mood, the transaction continued to run at a low level, and the rate of new disk removal was generally lower than 30%.
The second-hand housing market is also not optimistic.
According to CRIC data, from June to May, 2022, 5 155 sets of second-hand houses were sold in Dongguan, down 17% compared with 202 1 in the same period. In a single month, only 1665 sets were sold in May, up 73% year-on-year, and the other four months were negative.
Also under pressure are locally invested housing enterprises.
The sales ranking of Dongguan real estate enterprises in the first half of the year released by Shenzhen Yiju Ke Rui shows that from June to June, 2022, the cumulative traffic sales amount of TOP20 real estate enterprises reached 42.735 billion yuan, down 49.7% year-on-year; The sales area reached1389,800 square meters, down 52.5% year-on-year.
In terms of real estate investment, in 2020, among the nine cities in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Dongguan's real estate development investment ranks fourth from the bottom, with only 97.2 billion yuan, which is not as good as Zhuhai and Huizhou.
Dongguan has always been a "paradise for migrant workers" and a typical representative of a strong third-tier city.
In 20021year, Dongguan's GDP exceeded one trillion yuan, making it the fourth city in Guangdong after Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Foshan, and the fifth 15 "double million city" with a GDP exceeding one trillion yuan and a population exceeding 10 million.
In 20021year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in Dongguan reached 63,740 yuan, ranking fourth among the nine cities in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
Compared with the economy, the population of Dongguan is not bad.
In 20021year, the permanent population of Dongguan reached10.54 million, and the registered population was only 2.79 million, which means that the demand of the property market in Dongguan mainly came from foreign buyers.
Dongguan's fundamentals can be said to be good, but the biggest problem in its property market is that the previous skyrocketing led to the overdraft of consumers' purchasing power.
Even with policy support, it is difficult to support housing consumption. According to CRIC, the ratio of house price to income in Dongguan has exceeded 16 in 2020, which is equivalent to that in Guangzhou. Ratio of house price to income in Guangzhou in 2020 15.
Geographically, Dongguan is a typical radial city centered on the core city. In the past, Dongguan undertook a part of the overflow housing groups in Shenzhen, so the property market was also radiated by Shenzhen, showing a trend of "rising together and falling together".
In other words, the recovery of Dongguan will have to wait for the Shenzhen market to pick up before a "turnaround" can occur.
The situation in Dongguan is typical.
In the first half of the past year, 175 provinces and cities, like Dongguan, introduced nearly 600 new policies to boost confidence in the property market. Especially after the meeting of the Political Bureau on April 29th, the frequency of regulation and control policies was obviously accelerated, and the policy strength gradually showed the characteristics of supporting the property market.
Among them, 36 cities relaxed purchase restrictions, 54 cities relaxed loan restrictions, 20 cities relaxed sales restrictions, 142 provinces and cities relaxed provident fund loans, and 50 cities implemented housing subsidies.
A typical trend is that the regulation of the property market is becoming more and more detailed. Dongguan's refinement to the streets has also become a typical example of regional purchase restrictions.
But even if the policy is loosened, the effect is not obvious. For example, in February and April, there was a rare negative growth in medium and long-term loans of households, and housing loans decreased by 60.5 billion in April. The demand for housing mortgage loans is still weakening.
Please swipe up and down to browse the chart below.
The total cancellation of the purchase restriction in 28 towns and streets in Dongguan also shows us a very realistic property market problem.
This is still the case in cities with trillions of GDP, and the "difficulty" of the real estate market in other cities is self-evident.
In fact, there is still great uncertainty in the recovery process of the real estate industry.
In Dongguan, a city with overdrawn purchasing power, the real stabilization of the market still needs the help of a combination of rescue policies. Dongguan's new measures to implement regional differentiated purchase restrictions also provide reference samples for other pressure cities. With the refinement and dismantling of the "city-based policy", some pressure cities may completely cancel the purchase restriction, sales restriction and price restriction, and housing enterprises are expected to implement the necessary rescue policies and measures.