1. Supply and demand of lubricant market in China.
—— In 2065438+09, the national lubricating oil output was about 6.3 million tons.
According to the data of National Bureau of Statistics, from 20 13 to 20 15, the output of lubricating oil in China decreased year by year. 2065 438+06-2065 438+09, according to imedia data, the overall output of lubricating oil in China increased. In 20 19, the national lubricating oil output was about 6.3 million tons.
-2019 The apparent consumption of lubricating oil in China reached 6.48 million tons.
According to the output and total import and export volume of lubricating oil in China over the years, the apparent consumption of lubricating oil in China showed a fluctuating growth trend in 20 14-20 19. In 20 19, the apparent consumption of lubricating oil in China reached 6.48 million tons, an increase of 5% compared with 20 18.
-The ratio of supply and demand of lubricating oil in China is less than 1.
As shown in the following figure, from 20 15 to 20 19, the ratio of supply and demand of lubricating oil in China was less than 1, indicating that the supply of lubricating oil in China was less than the market demand in recent years. Among them, after 20 17 years, the proportion of supply and demand in China gradually increased, and by 20 19 years, the proportion of supply and demand reached 97%.
In 2.20 19, the lubricant market in China was about 35.5 billion yuan.
According to the data of Jintou.com, in the second half of 20 19, the reference price of domestic lubricating oil remained at 5383-5700 yuan/ton, and the price was relatively stable. From June 5438 to April 2020, the price of lubricating oil fell due to the influence of new coronary pneumonia. At the end of April 2020, the reference price of lubricating oil was 4,720 yuan tons.
With reference to the apparent consumption and average price of lubricants in China in the second half of 20 19: 5483 yuan/ton, it is estimated that the lubricant market in China will be about 35.5 billion yuan in 20 19.
In 3.20 19, the demand for vehicle lubricating oil accounted for 58.5%.
Lubricants are divided into industrial lubricants and automobile lubricants according to their uses. In the total consumption of domestic lubricants, automobile lubricants account for a large proportion; In 20 16, automobile lubricating oil accounted for 53% of the total consumption of lubricating oil, and industrial lubricants accounted for 47% of the total consumption of lubricating oil.
In 20 19 years, automobile lubricating oil accounted for 58.5% of the total consumption of lubricating oil, and industrial lubricants accounted for 4 1.5% of the total consumption of lubricating oil. Among the sub-products of automobile lubricating oil, the demand for diesel engine oil accounts for about 34.5% of lubricating oil, and the demand for steam engine oil accounts for about 24%.
4, lubricating oil market demand trend analysis
-The lubricant market for new energy vehicles has great potential.
In terms of vehicle lubricating oil, its market demand changes with the change of car ownership in China. According to the data, from 20 10 to 20 19, the number of civilian cars in China increased year by year. In 20 19, the number of civilian vehicles in China reached 262 million, up by 12.6% year-on-year. In the future, with the steady development of China's economy and society, the rigid demand for people to buy cars is strong, and with the stimulation of new energy vehicles on consumption, the number of cars will continue to grow rapidly, which will also promote the sustained growth of the automotive lubricant market.
At the same time, under the background of environmental protection and green economy development, with the promotion and popularization of new energy electric vehicles, automobile manufacturers are turning to battery-driven vehicles. The data shows that from 20 15 to 20 19, the average annual growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in China reached 38. 1%. The demand for lubricating oil for new energy vehicles is less than that for fuel vehicles, but the lubricating oil value of new energy electric vehicles may be 90% of that of diesel locomotives. Therefore, lubricating oil products dedicated to new energy vehicles will be a more profitable market segment of automobile oil.
-The demand for lubricating oil in the field of construction machinery will continue to grow.
In industrial lubricants, industries with rigid demand for lubricating oil in China involve machinery industry, steel industry, food processing industry and shipbuilding industry.
Taking the construction machinery industry as an example, according to the data of China Construction Machinery Industry Yearbook, the construction machinery industry in China ushered in a new high-speed growth in 20 17. According to the data of the 35th Las Vegas Construction Machinery Exhibition, in 20 19, the sales revenue of construction machinery in China reached 660 billion RMB, and nine China construction machinery enterprises ranked among the top 50 global construction machinery manufacturers.
At the same time, infrastructure investment is one of the important driving factors of China construction machinery industry. The data shows that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in China has been lower than the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society from 20 15 to 20 17, but the growth rate of infrastructure investment has increased since 20 18, because the government first put forward the concept of "new infrastructure" in 20 18. Therefore, with the China government's "new infrastructure",
—— The above data comes from the Analysis Report on Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning of China Lubricant Industry by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.