According to industry insiders, favorable policies to support the demand side are gradually landing, which is conducive to further releasing reasonable housing demand and boosting confidence in the real estate market, which is expected to stabilize and rebound.
Multi-site mortgage interest rates will continue to decline.
The People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission recently issued a notice to establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the housing loan interest rate policy for the first time. This move aims to make full use of the policy toolbox to better support the demand for rigid housing and form a long-term mechanism to support the stable and healthy operation of the real estate market.
In September 2022, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a notice to adjust the differentiated housing credit policy in stages. Eligible city governments can independently decide to maintain, reduce or cancel the lower limit of the first set of local new housing loan interest rates before the end of 2022. "After the announcement of the policy, the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate in Wuhan, Tianjin, Wenzhou and other cities fell below 4%, and some cities cancelled the lower limit of the interest rate. The interest rate shall be implemented until June 65438+February 3, 20221. The introduction of this policy means that the interest rate of the first home loan in some cities is expected to continue the previous level or is expected to be further lowered. " Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the Index Department of the Central Reference Institute, said.
According to the statistics released by RealData, in June 2022, the mainstream interest rate index of the first and second home loans continued to decline. In June 5438+February, the first set of mainstream interest rates averaged 4.09%, and the second set averaged 4.9 1%, which was basically the same as last month, dropping by 155 basis points and 100 basis points respectively.
According to the report of Guo Jin Securities, house prices in 38 cities have been falling continuously in the last three months. Including Dalian, Fuzhou, Harbin, Lanzhou, Nanning, Xiamen and other 13 second-tier cities; Bengbu, Beihai, Changde, Dandong, Guilin, Huizhou and other 25 third-and fourth-tier cities.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaopin, also said that the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the first home loan interest rate policy adjusts the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate, not the first home loan interest rate. How to price the mortgage is still an agreement between the bank and the customer. At present, the real estate market is relatively depressed, and the housing consumption demand of residents is sluggish. It is expected that most banks will actually implement the lower limit of mortgage interest rate for most customers. In the future, the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate may be 3.5%-4. 1%, and the previous 30% off mortgage interest rate is as low as 3.43%.
Rigid demand for more supportive policies
Recently, many departments have released signals to further support the demand for rigid and improved housing and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
A few days ago, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said in an interview that those who buy the first suite should be given strong support. The down payment ratio and the first set of interest rates should be lowered. Reasonable support should be given to those who buy a second house. Trade in the old for the new, change the small for the big, and give policy support to families with many children.
Previously, the Notice of the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission on Doing a Good Job in Financial Support for the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market pointed out that "support all localities to implement differentiated housing credit policies on the basis of national policies, reasonably determine the down payment ratio of local individual housing loans and the lower limit of loan interest rate policies, and support rigid and improved housing demand."
Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of Ke Rui Research Center, said that in 2023, housing credit policy will be the main force point for local governments to implement policies, support just-needed needs and improve demand. In addition to the downward trend of mortgage interest rates, the down payment ratio of first suites in various places is expected to usher in a comprehensive downward adjustment. At the same time, the possibility of further optimization of housing quantity determination rules is greatly improved.
In fact, according to the monitoring in RealData, the minimum down payment ratio of first-home commercial loans in 82 cities including Wuhan, Shijiazhuang, Changchun, Harbin and Nanchang can reach 20% (including some regions or some banks).
Shan Ge, an analyst at Huachuang Securities, said that in the current policy-intensive period, core first-and second-tier cities and some third-and fourth-tier hotspot cities still have a lot of room to relax the "four limits". Recently, cities such as Dongguan and Foshan canceled the global purchase restriction, and cities such as Hangzhou and Nanjing further optimized their administrative control policies. It is expected that the policy relaxation space will be further opened.
The real estate market is expected to stabilize and rebound.
"The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the central bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission once again expressed their support for the demand side, which fully demonstrated the government's determination to support the stabilization and recovery of real estate." Guo Jin Securities analyst Du Hao said.
The Southwest Securities Report also pointed out that the industry fundamentals bottomed out in 2022. At present, the policy has an "inflection point" before the fundamentals. It is expected that the industry fundamentals will be suppressed first and then raised in 2023, and it is expected to be gradually restored in the second half of the year.
With the introduction of favorable policies, some data in the real estate industry showed signs of recovery.
According to the report of Ke Rui Research Center, from June, 205438 to February, 2022, the transaction scale of the national land market reached a new high in the year, and even many plots in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Xiamen and other cities were sold at a high premium or at a limited price. The data shows that as of February 26th, 2022, the total number of commercial land transactions in 300 cities nationwide was 3,854, up 19% from the previous month. The total turnover is 692.7 billion yuan, and the growth rate of the chain is expected to reach about 70%.
Yang Kewei said that overall, with the further deepening of policy adjustment, the risks are further cleared, and buyers are expected to improve. It is expected that the real estate market will stabilize and rebound in 2023.