How to treat this year's house buying fever?

On the one hand, the hot temperature of the new housing market, the transaction price of the second-hand housing market soared; On the other hand, bank credit funds are obviously insufficient, and policy expectations are unclear. As an industry voice said, Hangzhou property market has entered an "anxiety" period: when to buy a house? Should I buy a house? What room to buy? All kinds of problems are concerned by buyers. In this regard, some analysts believe that due to the uncertainty of policy conditions, the market outlook is still inconclusive, but the transaction price will not fluctuate too much during the year. More voices said that although there will be no "housing shortage" in 20 10, the property market may decline next year. Second-hand housing prices have been rising all the way, and the second-hand housing market as a whole has shown a thriving scene. According to Lu Shen, the property consultant of the Housing Corporation, the transaction of second-hand houses at 5438+0 1 in June was generally stable, which was basically the same as that at 5438+0 in June, but the price soared. "A typical example is Binjiang Wanjiahuacheng. In 2007, the initial opening price of the project was 6,000-7,000 yuan/square meter, but in August this year, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in this property has reached15,000 yuan/square meter, and now it is at the price of19,000-20,000 yuan/square meter. " Lu Shen pointed out that, in fact, the price of the whole second-hand housing market has risen to a certain extent in both old and new residential areas, and the difference is only the size of the rising space. "For example, in some old communities such as Caihe and Fang Jing, Caihe belongs to the school district, and the original unit price is relatively high, so it has recently increased by 1, 000-2,000 yuan/square meter. However, the growth rate of new houses will be higher than that of old communities. For example, in the Spring Garden in the west of the city, the unit price in July and August was around 1.6 million yuan/square meter, and now it has reached 1.8 million yuan/square meter and 1.9 million yuan/square meter. " Behind the triumph of the second-hand housing market, it is related to the soaring data of the new housing market. According to the statistical website Anjuke Hangzhou Station, as of1October 24th19: 00, the current price level of new houses in Hangzhou has soared from 1305 1 yuan/square meter in June this year to1October. Among the second-hand houses sold in hot residential areas this month, the average transaction price of Binjiang Wanjiahuacheng was 20006 yuan/square meter, up 2.93% from last month; The average transaction price of Fengya Qiantang in Gong Xin 16594 yuan/square meter, up by 7.28%; The average transaction price of COFCO Hu Xiang was 10085 yuan/square meter, up19.82%; The average transaction price of Shentang New Village was 16559 yuan/m2, up 16.55%. What is the reason for the recent "skyrocketing" second-hand housing prices? According to Lu Shen's analysis, this is related to the market situation that the preferential policies for purchasing houses are about to expire. In addition, some real estate speculators sell second-hand houses and buy new houses for some reasons. "On the one hand, I am worried that the cancellation of the tax rebate policy next year will affect the price of second-hand housing; On the other hand, the opening of new projects run by well-known developers such as Binjiang and Greentown has also taken away some tourists, making some investors withdraw from the original residential areas and turn to new goals. " Lu Shen said. Abundant provident fund, on the one hand, the demand for second-hand housing is strong, on the other hand, commercial loans have begun to tighten. Although there is still more than one and a half months before the end of the year, customers who often deal with banks have obviously felt the tension of bank credit funds. For customers with personal mortgage demand, some banks directly informed that due to the tight credit line, personal mortgage has been stopped; Although some banks said they were still taking orders, it was not difficult to apply for a 70% mortgage interest rate as in the first half of the year, but when to lend money, they still had to wait in line. The relevant person in charge of Hangzhou Bank said that at present, each branch has a quota limit every month, and it will be gone when it is released. However, some people are repaying loans every month, and this part of the repayment money can be used as an increased amount. As soon as the quota is used up, it will be gone. Agricultural Bank of China also holds the same attitude as Hangzhou Bank. "Every branch is different. Some branches have no loan quota, and some branches use the repayment base brought by previous loans as the new quota. " The relevant person in charge of China Agricultural Bank said. Both Bank of Communications and China CITIC Bank said that the current credit line is a bit tight, and it is necessary to go through the internal approval process when the housing mortgage meets the conditions. As for current loans, you can still borrow if you meet certain conditions. If it is the first suite, there is basically no problem. Faced with the emergency of mortgage funds of banks in Hang Cheng, a person of a state-owned bank who asked not to be named said that personal mortgage funds are actually tight, not only now, but also at the beginning of 10. Now at the beginning of each month, there will be an indicator above, indicating that the quota in July, August and September cannot be exceeded. In this case, banks have to make an inventory in their own customer base and allocate it internally to alleviate the urgent need of capital shortage; Or, some banks have corporate business, get the repayment of corporate business, and then turn to private business. If customers' requirements cannot be met, some banks will lose customers. In fact, the policy direction has always been the vane of the property market, and the 2009 Central Economic Work Conference is the focus of recent policies. Moreover, this year's Central Economic Work Conference was advanced, from the conventional 65438+February to the end of 165438+ 10. In recent years, the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference has been greatly reversed. In 2006, it changed from "fast and good" to "good and fast", emphasizing sustainable development while ensuring economic growth. The year 2007 is a contractive economic policy aimed at preventing overheating and inflation. The property market is extremely hot, but the global financial crisis that began at the end of 2007 broke this rhythm. Under the action of external forces, the economy passively changes from overheating to supercooling, and from inflation to deflation. Therefore, maintaining growth has become the core task of macroeconomic adjustment in 2008. So, how will this economic work conference be set up? Will it have an impact on the real estate market? Will it "cool down" the current skyrocketing housing prices? A series of questions are worth pondering. Zhao Hangsheng, director of the Real Estate Investment Research Institute of Zhejiang University, said in an interview that the Central Economic Work Conference will definitely make a conclusive analysis of the overall development trend of China's real estate, especially the direction and policy of macro-control next year, and then formulate the macro-control policy of the central government next year, and the orientation of fiscal policy and monetary policy at the national and the State Council levels, and then decide the orientation of real estate policy. This is a top-down process. Together with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, the "24 New Policies" promulgated by Hangzhou last year will expire at the end of the year. Will preferential measures such as buying a house, increasing the proportion of provident fund loans and reducing transaction taxes and fees continue? All these will affect the future of the real estate market. And many property buyers want to buy a house before the end of the year. "It's a lot of money just to reduce taxes and fees, and I'm ready to buy a house." Xiao Wei, a buyer who is looking for a second-hand house, told reporters that there are actually many buyers who have the same idea as Xiao Wei. According to the data of second-hand houses in June 5438+ 10, 4,802 sets of second-hand houses were sold in five major urban areas in June 5438+ 10, up 13% from September 4,266 sets and up 4.3 times year-on-year. The average transaction price was 166 10 yuan/m2, up 3% from September and 40% from the same period last year. -Industry point of view: there is room for house prices to rise at the end of the year. Zhao Hangsheng, director of the Institute of Real Estate Investment of Zhejiang University, pointed out that there is still room for house prices to rise at the end of this year. In the last month of this year, there will be a "small climax" in the property market transaction. Because many people will choose to buy a house at the last time of this year to take the last bus of preferential mortgage policy. Although it is not clear whether the preferential policies for mortgage loans will continue, with the improvement of the economic environment, the trend of gradual reduction of preferential policies for real estate is certain, which also urges some people to accelerate their pace of buying houses. Whether the property market in Hangzhou can continue this year's boom next year mainly depends on three factors: first, whether the national macro-economy can continue to pick up; Second, the change of inflationary pressure has a great influence on the real estate market turnover. In a certain range, the greater the pressure of inflation, the more obvious the function of maintaining value of the house, which will undoubtedly stimulate consumption; Third, the impact on the supply of the property market. The supply of Hangzhou property market has been in short supply for a long time. Although the supply of the property market will increase significantly next year than this year, it is difficult to change the situation that the supply of the property market is in short supply. Next year, the real estate market may fall. Chen Bo, marketing director of Zhongan Real Estate, can basically be sure that the relatively stable property market will last until February and March next year. Before the current real estate support policy changes, there will be no big fluctuations in the Hangzhou property market. As for the inflection point of the property market, I think it will be after March next year. Judging from the current situation, with the national macro-economy out of the downturn and the overheated real estate market, real estate-related policies will definitely change, and there will be a series of changes such as rising mortgage interest rates next year. This will inevitably have an impact on the direction of the real estate market next year. My view is that the real estate market in Hangzhou is more likely to decline next year. From the end of 20 10 to the beginning of 20 1 1 or the completed inflection point of the property market, it is meaningless for Yu Rong, vice president of Jindu Real Estate, to judge the market reaction solely by supply. At the beginning of this year, someone made statistics. At that time, the total number of buildings in Hangzhou was around 30 thousand sets. Some people predict that these buildings will take two or three years to digest, but the actual results are quite different from the predictions. In fact, to predict the market prospect of the property market, the most important thing is to see whether the relationship between supply and demand in the market is stable. It is no exaggeration to say that 70% of the demand in the property market is investment demand, and housing prices are driven by this demand. Whether the market demand next year can be as strong as this year is probably a question mark. Judging from the current development trend, next year's property market is likely to be dominated by the current stable market. After the house price stands at a high level, both buyers and real estate development enterprises need time to adapt to the changes brought about by high house prices. The overall situation of the steady development of the national economy does not allow housing prices to continue to rise. It can be inferred that the inflection point of the property market is expected to appear from the end of 20 10 to 20 1 1, which is also the view of most people.