On June 6th, Guangzhou officially released the "Implementation Plan for Guangzhou (District) in the Guangzhou-Qingdao Junction Area of the National Urban-Rural Integration Development Experimental Zone", which will establish an orderly urban-rural migration system in Huadu District, Conghua District and Zengcheng District. These include further optimizing household conditions, lowering the threshold for urban settlement, building a classified flexible settlement mechanism, adhering to the principle of stock priority, and gradually canceling the restrictions on the settlement of key groups.
At present, local real estate-related policies have been relaxed one after another. While some hot second-tier cities have joined the ranks of policy optimization, first-tier cities are also releasing policies that benefit the property market. In the eyes of the industry, although the above-mentioned policies in Guangzhou are not aimed at the property market, it also means that Huadu District, Conghua District and Zengcheng District have lowered the threshold for buying houses, which is conducive to promoting the release of the willingness to buy houses, activating more demand for buying houses, and then triggering the suburbs of some big cities to follow up the relaxation policies.
Differentiated household policies help to release the demand for housing.
On June 6th, according to many media reports, Huadu District, Conghua District and Zengcheng District of Guangzhou introduced differentiated household policies. The so-called differentiated household policy is to lower the threshold for settlement in Huadu District, Conghua District and Zengcheng District. Specific measures include: full-time undergraduate education is reduced from full-time undergraduate education to full-time junior college education, full-time undergraduate education or degree (certificate) of domestic ordinary universities that do not meet the current household registration policy in Guangzhou, and graduates of preparatory technician classes and advanced engineering classes of full-time technician college are also included in the scope of differentiated academic qualifications.
At the same time, differentiated personnel can move freely in the city between Baiyun, Huangpu, Huadu, Panyu, Nansha, Conghua and Zengcheng after they have settled in Huadu, Conghua and Zengcheng. The above-mentioned differentiated households will also be able to move to Yuexiu, Haizhu, Liwan and Tianhe after paying social insurance in the above seven districts for three years.
In this regard, Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, believes that such a policy makes it easier for big cities to settle down and more ladder-like. In other words, if you want to settle in Guangzhou, you can choose to settle in this remote suburb, with low threshold and convenient policies at present.
In addition, Yan Yuejin said that from the actual process, such a settlement policy will naturally activate more housing demand. This settlement policy is just at the stage of relaxing the current real estate policy, which lowers the threshold for buying houses, promotes the willingness to buy houses to be released more easily, and then drives market transactions.
As we all know, since April, the pace of policy implementation in various cities has obviously accelerated and the intensity has been continuously increased. The content of policy adjustment has been extended to optimize the policy of restricting purchases and loans, especially some hot second-tier cities have joined the ranks of policy optimization. According to Kerry's incomplete statistics, from April/KLOC-0 to May 24, 22 second-tier cities across the country relaxed the regulation of the property market 46 times.
In other words, on average, 1 second-tier cities join the ranks of deregulation every 2.5 days. This wave of second-tier cities that have joined the deregulation cycle includes Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing and other core cities in the Yangtze River Delta, which shows the pressure and urgency of stabilizing the property market.
Guangzhou property market is still in the stage of "bottoming out" in May.
In contrast, obvious policy loosening in first-tier cities is rare, but it is also marginal.
13 In April, Shanghai optimized the talent housing policy in Lingang New District, which was implemented as early as 20 19, and changed the original letter of confirmation of house purchasing qualification into a letter of confirmation of talent housing policy, which doubled the validity period and shortened the regional working hours from "more than one year" to three or six months, which also meant that more qualified talents were eligible to buy houses. Lingang is a region in the stage of large-scale development, belonging to the periphery of Shanghai, with a large supply and declining demand, which requires real-time adjustment of policies.
Although the differentiated household policy introduced in Guangzhou this time is not aimed at the property market, it is beneficial to the market, which virtually solves the "property market purchase restriction" of some people. The superimposed interest rate cut will help to activate more demand for housing.
What is the Guangzhou real estate market behind the adjustment of settlement policy? Judging from the second-hand housing market in Guangzhou in May, the overall situation is still in the stage of "bottoming out". Although the mortgage interest rate has been continuously lowered, the transaction heat of the second-hand housing market in Guangzhou has not rebounded significantly. The transaction volume of second-hand houses in May was basically the same as that in March and April. In terms of price, according to the data of the Central Reference Institute, the price of second-hand housing in Guangzhou continued to rise slightly by 0.29% in May, which was the same as that of the previous month, and the overall trend was stable and sideways.
It is worth mentioning that during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday just past, many buildings in Guangzhou were promoted by Dragon Boat Festival, including "real estate promotion", "open demonstration area", "open entity model house" and "one-price" preferential housing. With the continuous downward adjustment of mortgage interest rate and the increase of developers' promotion, the mood of buying houses in Guangzhou property market has warmed up during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, which shows that the property market has picked up, especially for properties with high cost performance.
In Yan Yuejin's view, differential settlement does contribute to the active real estate market in Guangzhou North Third District. From the perspective of urban reference, some big cities can also relax the settlement policy of suburban markets, that is, actively promote differentiated and stepped settlement policies.