K-god theory
Bitcoin hit a new high yesterday, and there is still no obvious stop signal as of press time. Are you shivering again under the empty voice?
Message dynamics
Many people interpret the news that India banned cryptocurrencies as the reason for the market decline. This logic is unreasonable. This is a simple logic. Sam's purchasing power is not good, so it can't affect the market. Even China people have no pricing power. Sam has a hammer. Moreover, it is not a day or two since India banned Bitcoin. A few years ago and even last year, it has been fired countless times. Isn't Russia also banned? So let's just watch the news and don't take it seriously. The rise and fall of the market has its own logic, so don't follow suit.
The BMW M8 coupe has been sold with 100% cryptocurrency, and the price of this car is 1968000 RMB. At first glance, this information is simple in Louis Koo, but it will be interesting for everyone to think about it carefully. According to the current price of bitcoin, it means that only five bitcoins are needed to buy this car, so an interesting question arises: the higher the price of bitcoin, the more people may be willing to own or even use bitcoin. Because bitcoin fluctuates violently, using bitcoin at a relatively high level can get a better buying experience and even earn your own money to some extent. At present, five bitcoins are worth about RMB 2 million. Assuming that the bear market falls by 80%, it means that you can get better goods and services with less money, because the total price of these five bitcoins may only need 400,000 RMB in a bear market. In other words, it can be understood that you bought 2 million goods with 400 thousand. I don't know if this logic is right, but I am thinking that the higher the price of Bitcoin, the better its promotion and use, because the price to be paid will not increase with the price increase, but will greatly enhance the value of Bitcoin. I will think about the payment attribute of Bitcoin later. Because according to our past experience, if your money is worth more every day, you will be reluctant to use it, similar to gold. However, the high volatility of Bitcoin seems to solve this problem perfectly-it will drop sharply in a certain period of time than before yesterday, so it is not easy for people to store it for a long time. It is worth pondering.
Technical analysis
Bitcoin children's shoes fell unilaterally after noon yesterday 12 because they fell below the previous high of $58,326. Theoretically, if the previous high breakthrough is an effective breakthrough, then the step back should not fall below. Yesterday, before 12, the lower rail of the ascending channel rebounded and there was a parallel trend of yin and yang, and the situation was good. After 12, it took a sharp turn and fell all the way, without rebounding in the middle. As of today, the lowest offer is $53,266, which is only a thin line away from the strong support level of $53,000.
Why did it fall so much? Will it fall again? In fact, Lao K has no answer, because I simply can't understand this decline, and there is no logic and no clue. Is equivalent to the past trend, there are always clues and reasons to find the purpose behind Li Ge, but this one, to be honest, nothing, I look very confused. This situation is not uncommon. Every wave has such a sudden rebound in the past. Even people like me who are "professional" and follow Li Ge's ass have been cheated. It is conceivable that people who don't think about Li Ge don't know what the market is going to do. And often this time, it means that li3 ge is going to start a real big move. In the words of old community users, when Lao K doesn't understand and starts to doubt the market, it means that the market is about to start. This is a joke, but it's true. For example, I, a dead cow, have repeatedly suspected that there is something wrong with the intermediate process market, relying on a mouthful of chicken blood to hang my life, such as the shock of $9,834. At that time, you can really go up or down; Another example is the adjustment of 19425 USD. That wave can be returned to 13200 dollars. At that time, I also made a callback plan, but I didn't go. This is also the case now. Theoretically, I should make a plan, but I decided not to do anything, because the result was a close call. So the following content, you can think about it, but don't care too much:
First, the monthly line level:
There is deviation in the monthly moving average. In this case, it is possible to step back on the moving average. The first two months are long shadow mode. Everyone thinks it's time to find it this month. Many people are bearish on the previous $43,000, which is the cause of this incident. But this is not the case. The lowest and highest positions were opened in March. This new high means that the previous long shadow line pressure is a cloud. Since pressure is just a cloud, it's really hard to understand how to retreat. However, because the monthly line will not be collected for half a month, according to the current market fluctuations, it is only idle to pull it back. Therefore, the biggest significance of this monthly line is to break through the previous high of $58,326, which means that it is useless to declare this pressure, which means that the significance of guiding the direction is more important.
Once a week:
At present, the short-term moving average of the weekly line has not broken, and the kiwifruit in front has reached a new high. Logically, it should continue to rise, but it is really incomprehensible when it falls back, but at least the moving average is still there, and there is still time for the weekly line to close, so it is just waiting.
On the daily line, what is more interesting is that this trend will give people a strong psychological hint of "double top" and "m head", and the panic effect is quite good. Anyway, at least for now, I have been cheated, but the market performance is very strange. Only large market varieties have ever covered the shipment of small market varieties, and have never seen small market varieties cover the shipment of large market varieties. And except for yesterday's slightly larger volume, the delivery probability is too low. Many people say it's a big double top. You know, once this big double roof is realized, it will not be blocked by $43,000, and you may wander to $28,800. After all, the neckline is there:
But if it is a big double roof, then the problem arises again. The big double top means that this bull market cycle cannot be higher, so according to the previous bear market experience, it will fall by 80% every time. Simply calculate, it will fall back to $65438 +02360, and the bear market will last for several years. Institutions are buying $40,000 or even $50,000 just to kill and survive for a few years. There is something wrong with your brain. Furthermore, Rico was protected from a double-dip rebound before $28,800, of which $16,200 was obviously not a threat. Now you make a big double top and go back to the line 12000. What did you bother to do before? Are you free? And from the market performance, the old cottage strong currency is still strong, how to fall? The traditional mainstream of old brands still stays at the level of Bitcoin of $6,000. If you come back, these old guns will not be dropped. There is nothing in the bull market and innovation is low. What kind of bull market is this, colorful cows? So on the other hand, this can't be M-top. Moreover, there is no M-top form in the history of Bitcoin, and they are all triangular tops. So to sum up, it can't be top class here, it can only be a way to wash dishes for people.
For 4 hours:
When the $43,000 rebounded, it was a complex head-shoulder bottom shape, but now it has fallen and become a complex head-shoulder top shape. The mutual transformation of head, shoulders, top and bottom has been integrated without any turning point. What the hell is it, a box? Therefore, if we have to analyze the reasons here, it is that there are many factors that induce the vibration of the box. The box is clearer:
It can be divided into two modes, one is double bottom rebound (white road), which is faster. Breakthrough at the beginning of April at most. Because of this shock, you can prefix 10 directly, and there will be no toss in the middle. If it is slow, it means that the box oscillation path (purple path) needs more time. If it breaks through in late April or mid-May, the target will be higher than the white path, because it takes more time to wash dishes. However, there will be a fatal problem, and time and space will be seriously unbalanced. In this case, unless the upper limit of curing space is greatly opened, this probability is a bit low. So although there are some changes in details, the best path can only be 757 10 mode.
15 minutes:
43,000 USD rebounded to 665,438+0,800 USD. Fibonacci callback position is shown above. At present, the price is between 50%-6 1.8%, and it is still in a normal callback state. Only when it falls below 38.2 again can we think that the market is in a state of shock. At present, we need to wait and see what will happen next. Faced with this strange trend of detail, it is not the top situation. If the contract is not good, be patient. You can rest assured at the scene.
Let's call it a day. Good luck with your investment. I am trying to convince you, and I will continue to convince you. See you tomorrow.