About the bank card problem

Ten-year great leap forward in housing prices

1998 since entering the era of commercial housing, although major cities have experienced two rounds of major regulation, house prices have been rising more and more.

Housing market problem

Five years later, Huang bought a mansion of nearly 200 square meters in the suburbs of Beijing. (Average opening price of 50 commercial houses in Beijing in July this year 12 156 yuan/m2) Five years ago, Shanghai Agricultural Bank and Huang bought a house in Xiamen at a price of 4,000 yuan/m2. 10 years ago, Huang wanted to buy a house in a city in the Central Plains. At that time, the price was 800 yuan per square meter.

Compared with income, house prices have never been cheap.

"If you can save 1 1,000 yuan every month, you can buy a house of about 1 1,000 square meters in eight years." That community has a nice name called "Lv Yun". Huang looked at those fairy-tale houses getting taller and more beautiful every day. He rides his bike through the dusty Huaihe Road every day, wondering which one he will become.

It was ten years ago, Huang was about to graduate from college and was on his way to the internship unit. That year, the largest residential area in the Central Plains city was "Lv Yun", which grew wildly outside the walls of his school. "It seems to be one of the few communities that advertised houses in newspapers at that time." Huang left that city and moved to Xiamen, Shanghai, Beijing and other cities, trying to recall the dusty lush years. "I thought about buying a house there, but at that time, I couldn't afford it."

Going out from rural Jiangxi and living in his own building was an extravagant hope for him ten years ago. "It should be more than 800 yuan per square meter." He remembered that the house price in the newspaper at that time was almost the highest in that provincial capital. 10 years ago, Wang Shi, the boss of Vanke group (Wang Shi blog, Wang Shi news, Wang Shi spoke), asked his subordinates to do a survey on the ratio of house price to income in the whole country 12 cities, and the average value he got was 8.4. "I calculated with a good classmate that if I can save 1000 yuan every month, I can buy a house of about 1000 square meters in eight years according to the house price at that time." Huang hardly saved a penny in his first year of work, because the monthly salary at that time was only 800 yuan, and he couldn't stand the poor income of that provincial capital, so he ran to Xiamen.

Ten years ago, in the spring, which was later the "Zhang Ziyi of the real estate industry", Pan Shiyi, the boss of SOHO China (Pan Shiyi's blog, Pan Shiyi's news and Pan Shiyi's talk), left Wantong with two other old friends just two years ago, and invited five design companies to plan and plan SOHO Modern City. At that time, the Modern City Building was located at about 1000 meters east, and the East Fourth Ring Road in Beijing was planned. People are looking forward to the "four-ring dream". The North Fourth Ring Road has been open to traffic for several years from North College Road to Siyuan Bridge, where the houses are the most expensive in Beijing, with more than 4,000 yuan per square meter.

Five years ago, Huanghua saved five years' savings, borrowed 500,000 yuan from the bank and bought the first house in Xiamen. "After buying a house, I hope to save 654.38 million yuan every year." His dream of saving has increased by 10 times, and the house he bought is more than 4,000 yuan per square meter, which is five times more expensive than the "Lv Yun" he longed for.

When Pan Shiyi was a seemingly unfamiliar SOHO modern city, he was still an old house outside the East Third Ring Road in Beijing. There are several big factories that are the bosses there, and they have two very rustic names, one is Dabei Kiln and the other is Langjiayuan. Until a few years later, the place names of several northern villages, such as Dabeiyao and Langjiayuan, which are thousands of meters apart, were tied together, and an absolutely modern and peerless western name-CBD appeared on both sides of East Chang 'an Avenue.

Five years later, Huang moved from Xiamen to Beijing. He makes a living by writing books. He sold his house in Xiamen for 8,000 yuan per square meter and bought a mansion of nearly 200 square meters in the suburbs of Beijing. "Compared with income, the price of the house is never cheap, but you must buy it." Huang has a simple feeling of living and working in peace and contentment, and finally seems to be able to settle down. "The house in' Lv Yun' has always been what I want until now." He said that he really wanted to go back to that city and see "Lv Yun".

Housing reform was initiated to stimulate domestic demand.

"If you buy a house, you have to spend money to decorate it, and you have to buy furniture and home appliances, which will drive many industries, not only from the perspective of investment, but also from the perspective of consumption."

When Huang packed his bags and prepared to go to Xiamen Special Economic Zone, Zhu, then Premier of the State Council? Focus on the release of a the State Council Order. "I didn't know these things at the time. The house can only be a dream for me, except dreams. " The unit where he graduated once provided him with a single dormitory. "Old comrades have houses, which are not big, mostly forty or fifty square meters."

Document Guo Fa [1998] No.23, which was later regarded as the programmatic document of housing reform, focused on "canceling welfare housing distribution and realizing monetization and privatization of residents' housing" for many years, and the pilot housing system reform in Tianjin and other cities was officially launched. That year, the real estate price in Hong Kong plummeted and the Asian financial crisis swept through. In the eyes of many scholars, Zhu actually stood at the forefront of housing reform. One of the important measures taken by the government to actively stimulate domestic demand under the leadership of the Foundation, although China has not been directly impacted, it is still inevitable that domestic demand is insufficient and consumption is not prosperous. "Speeding up housing construction and promoting housing industry to become a new economic growth point" has been clearly defined as the guiding ideology of housing reform.

"1998, China's economic development is not fast, the central leadership said to stimulate economic growth in the first place. Without massive investment, the goals of 7% and 8% of the national GDP7% of 7% will not be achieved. "Gu Yunchang, vice president of China Real Estate and Housing Research Association (Gu Yunchang Blog, Gu Yunchang News, Gu Yunchang) (Gu Yunchang Blog, Gu Yunchang News) participated in the formulation process of the whole housing reform policy from 65438 to 0998. "The industrial chain of housing construction is very long, involving dozens of industries, such as building materials, chemicals and steel. All of this should drive growth. " The initial motive of starting the housing reform is to make the real estate industry a pillar industry of national economic development. The goal was clear at the time.

"After buying a house, you have to spend a lot of money on decoration, furniture and home appliances, which in turn has driven many industries. Both the early stage and the late stage have brought such an industrial chain effect, which can not only stimulate economic growth from the perspective of investment, but also from the perspective of consumption. It is a double pull. " Gu Yunchang is optimistic about the initial idea, but if individuals can't afford a house, it will be a "flower in the mirror" to stimulate domestic demand.

Many people haven't turned from the idea that the unit pays for building and buying a house. "Everyone is waiting for housing allocation. The first community we developed in a city in Central China was barely sold out after five years. " Zhong Fang Company is one of the earliest state-owned real estate companies in China. Mr. Wu has worked for many years. "Many people are not used to it. Another is who has so much money. "

It is based on the consideration that most people can afford a house. 1February, 1999, the concept of "actively developing personal consumption credit" was first put forward in the Guiding Opinions on Developing Personal Consumption Credit issued by the People's Bank of China, and early consumption, housing loan and mortgage loan were successively introduced in China. This opinion has created millions of "house slaves" after many years.

A few years later, Huang, who made some money from advertising in Xiamen, decided to buy the first house. "It seems that I will spend my life there." A bank soon provided him with a loan. "It is very simple to find a friend's company to stamp the income certificate." His hukou stayed in the central provincial capital. "They don't seem to care where it is."

Huang bought the first house with an area of140m2. 1997 Before the overall housing reform started, the Ministry of Construction and other ministries and commissions conducted a special survey on the per capita housing area of residents in eight developed countries, such as Japan, Europe and America, and proposed that the per capita housing area in China should be between 30 and 40 square meters, and formulated the standard of 90- 120 square meters according to the family planning policy.

People have gradually come out of the habit of welfare housing distribution, and it is no longer unusual to buy commercial housing. In the second year after Huang bought a house, house prices began to enter the era of "skyrocketing".

Under the "city-building" movement, house prices made a great leap forward.

With a monthly salary of more than 5 thousand, I can't afford a house within the Fifth Ring Road.

When young Huang moved into his new house in Xiamen, 60-year-old Liu Rongcheng moved out of the quadrangle where he had lived since he was born. With the compensation he got, he traveled in Beijing for several months. At the end of 2002, he bought a three-bedroom apartment of 120 square meters in a community called Xinhualianjiayuan in Tongzhou District. "Considering retirement and living in the suburbs, the air is good." Liu Rongcheng intends to live in Tongzhou all the time. One of the main reasons for buying a house here is the low price. "Only 2,400 yuan a square meter, the city's third ring road is more than 6,000 yuan."

In 2006, Lao Liu moved again. "My son is getting married, and Xinhualian's house is going to make him a new house." He expects his son to make money to buy a house in the city after work, but Chongqing CITIC Bank, whose son earns more than 5,000 yuan a month, can't afford a house in the Fifth Ring Road at all. "There is no house below 1 10,000 in the Fifth Ring Road, and he can't afford it." Even Xinhua Lian, where Liu Rongcheng lives, has risen to nearly 8,000 yuan.

"My son finally bought a cheap house, more than 5,000 yuan per square meter, and is still in mortgage." My son bought a house far away from Hebei and exchanged it with Liu Rongcheng, who moved to a small county in Hebei. "Neighbors are all moved from Beijing, no strangers." Yanjiao Town, where Liu Rongcheng moved, is 30 kilometers away from the Fourth Ring Road in Beijing and belongs to Langfang, Hebei. In the past few years, as many as 200,000 people have lived and worked in Beijing.

Pan Shiyi has a luxury apartment in Beijing. He prefers to bask in the sun at the foot of Badaling Mountain on the outskirts of Beijing. With the success of several real estate projects, Lao Pan, who speaks Mandarin with a northwest accent, has financial resources, gathered the wisdom of Nado's architects, and built a villa group called "Commune at the foot of the Great Wall", making it a gathering place for celebrities in Beijing.

In the years when Liu Rongcheng moved from the city to the suburbs and from the suburbs to other provinces, the annual increase in Beijing's housing prices was above 10%. By the end of 2006, the average selling price of commercial housing in Beijing had risen to 8792 yuan/square meter. In the first half of 2007, this record was broken again, and the houses below 10,000 yuan in the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing disappeared.

Under high housing prices, buying a house has become a problem and it is impossible to live in peace. "The debt of the housing security system has caused a large number of residents who should have solved the housing problem within the security system to enter the commercial housing market to solve the housing problem, resulting in the rigid demand never being diverted." Wu Ritu, who participated in the design of the housing reform system, said that as a result, major cities in China entered two rounds of large-scale regulation, but the more regulation, the higher the housing price.

After the Spring Festival in 2004, when the macro-control was cooling down the house price, Lao Pan wrote "What will happen to Beijing's real estate in 2004" and predicted that "house prices will rise", and reiterated this view many times since then. Later, some media reported that Lao Pan was criticized by the Ministry of Construction for "not naming names". However, the house price has really gone up as the little bald head said.

In 2004, Sheng Huaren, vice chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC), revealed a set of figures: from 200/kloc-0 to 2003, the income from land transfer fees of local governments was 9 100 billion yuan. During the five years from 1998 to 2003, only 930 billion yuan of bonds were issued nationwide. This shows the huge benefits brought by land transfer fees to local governments.

"After ten years of housing reform, house prices have risen several times. It seems that everyone who bought a house in the early years made money, and those who didn't buy a house can't afford it now, "said the retired Ministry of Construction official. "In this process, new interest groups, including local governments, have been formed, and it has become difficult to lower housing prices, which is the root cause of higher prices."

Three years and three documents can't hold down the house price.

House prices are unmoved by two rounds of regulation and administrative measures, and the upward trend remains the same.

In May 2005, the State Council forwarded the opinions of the Ministry of Construction and other seven ministries and commissions on stabilizing housing prices, that is, Document No.25. At the same time of the rapid development of housing prices nationwide, the control of housing prices at the national level also began.

The "Opinions" require earnestly implementing various regulatory policies and measures in the State Council, doing a good job in two-way regulation of supply and demand, curbing speculative real estate speculation, controlling investment in house purchase, encouraging the construction of ordinary commodity housing and affordable housing, and rationally guiding housing consumption. "Strengthening the construction of affordable housing and improving the low-rent housing system" was highlighted.

After Circular 25, some related policies were also introduced, which was customarily called the first round of macro-control. Regrettably, house prices did not fall as required by Circular 25. On the contrary, many areas have once again set off a wave of price increases.

One year later, in May, the Ministry of Construction, the National Development and Reform Commission and other nine departments formulated the Opinions on Adjusting Housing Supply Structure and Stabilizing Housing Prices, which was forwarded by the State Council and later called Document No.37..

Circular 37 is a reaffirmation of Circular 25, pointing out that in a centralized inspection, it was found that the macro-control policies were not implemented in place and the price increase was not effectively controlled.

Circular No.37 is more detailed than Circular No.25, explicitly requiring cities to announce the construction targets of ordinary commercial housing, affordable housing and low-rent housing before the end of September 2006, and explicitly proposing that the proportion of residential units below 90 square meters should reach 70% of the development area. Subsequently, tax and bank credit policies were further tightened.

At the National People's Congress in March 2007, Document No.37 was emphasized again.

However, housing prices are still unmoved by the two rounds of regulation, and the fiscal and taxation policies, monetary policies, credit policies and even administrative measures are still rising. According to the data released by the National Development and Reform Commission in August 16 this year, house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide rose by 7.5% in July.

In April 2007, the State Council hosted a symposium on the real estate situation and the construction of low-rent housing system. 1 In August, the the State Council187th executive meeting adopted "Several Opinions of the State Council on Solving the Housing Difficulties of Urban Low-income Families". The third "Opinions" is called Document No.24, and its core content is to accelerate the establishment and improvement of a policy system focusing on the low-rent housing system to solve the housing difficulties of urban low-income families through multiple channels, define the boundary between the government and the market, and separate housing security from the market.

The promulgation of three documents in three years has pushed the housing reform that has gone for ten years to a new level and returned to the housing reform policy of 1998. In the documents formulated by that government, the housing security of low-and middle-income people has been considered. "The lowest income families rent low-cost housing provided by the government or units; Low-and middle-income families buy affordable housing; Other high-income families buy and lease commercial housing at market prices. " It says on the file.

It is in this context that the National Housing Conference on August 24th was held in a low-key manner.

Rectify housing reform and return to public policy.

Under the "ultimatum" of the Ministry of Construction, 268 cities above the prefecture level have established and implemented the low-rent housing system.

"We must further improve the security policy and establish a multi-level housing security system. For example, supply price-limited commercial housing to low-and middle-income families; Affordable housing is divided into two categories: sales type and lease type. The former supplies low-income households, while the latter supplies low-income households that are higher than the subsistence allowance line but unable to purchase affordable housing. " Zhang Yuanduan, vice president of China Real Estate and Housing Research Association (Zhang Yuanduan's blog, Zhang Yuanduan's news and Zhang Yuanduan's talk) mentioned his views many times and reiterated them again after the national construction conference.

Zhang's view is similar to the spirit of the national housing work conference held on August 24. After this conference, a series of documents related to housing security will be published one after another. Many experts predict that a complete housing security policy system will be formed within this year.

At the invitation of the Ministry of Construction, Gu Yunchang participated in the survey of affordable housing construction in more than ten cities, and the situation is not optimistic. "In the early years, Shanghai did not engage in the construction of affordable housing." Gu Yunchang said in an interview with CCTV, "They said that the price of commercial housing in Shanghai in 2000 was only two-thirds of that in Beijing."

In 2003, five years after the implementation of the housing reform policy, the total investment in affordable housing construction in China fell to 6% of the real estate investment that year. Until the end of SARS, housing prices in Shanghai, Beijing and other places rose rapidly, and the contradiction caused by insufficient coverage of affordable housing began to be sharp. A large number of people who have no housing and can't buy affordable housing have to enter the commercial housing market, and house prices are rising.

"Some low-and middle-income families are unable to buy commercial housing in the market. Some families have just exceeded the minimum living security line and do not meet the requirements of low-rent housing security policy, but they are unable to buy affordable housing; Some families need to solve the demolition and resettlement houses. " Zhang Yuanchuan called these residents "sandwich class". How to solve the "sandwich" housing problem, he believes that a multi-level housing security system should be established. In an article, Zhang Yuanchuan specially introduced the experience of Nantong City, Jiangsu Province, and made overall arrangements for the housing problems of residents in this city in six levels.

In 2006, macro-control gradually moved from "six articles of the state" and "eight articles of the state" to the policy level of "housing security function", and real estate was gradually corrected from industrial policy to public policy.

"Cities that have not yet established a low-rent housing system must be established and implemented before the end of 2006." Under the pressure of "ultimatum" from the Ministry of Construction, 268 cities above prefecture level have established and implemented low-rent housing system. In addition to the concept of affordable housing, the concept of low-rent housing is also put forward. "The state has shown an adjustment posture in the real estate development strategy, returning from industrial policy to public policy, and real estate has begun to tilt from excessive marketization to social security, Gansu Postal Savings Bank." Yin Bocheng, an economics professor, said.

The return of the policy needs the guarantee of the implementation rules. According to earlier reports, the Ministry of Construction is working with relevant ministries to draft documents. It is expected that most of the measures will be reported to the State Council in September and 10, and will be issued and implemented before the end of the year.