From 2000, at that time, advertisements of loan companies appeared on TV, newspapers and streets, or your mailbox was filled with attractive leaflets:
"Have you ever thought about the life of the middle class? Buy a house! "
"Savings is not enough? Loan! "
"There is no income? Looking for A Niu Loan Company! "
"Can't afford the down payment? We offer zero down payment! "
"Worried that interest is too high? We offer a preferential interest rate of 3% for the first two years! "
"Still can't afford it every month? It doesn't matter, you only need to pay interest in the first 24 months, and you can also repay the loan principal two years later! Think about it, after two years, you must have found a job or been promoted to a manager, and you are afraid that you can't afford it! "
"Worried that you can't afford it after two years? Oh, you are too careful. Look at how much the house has risen now compared with two years ago. Then you can sell it to others, not only for two years, but also at a profit! Besides, you don't have to pay. I believe you can do it. I dare you to borrow it? "
Under such temptation, countless American citizens did not hesitate to choose a loan to buy a house.
A Niu Loan Company has made amazing achievements in just a few months, but all the money has been lent out. Can it be redeemed? Mr. A Niu, the chairman of the company, is also familiar with American economic history. It is impossible not to know that there are risks in the real estate market, so it seems that he can't absorb the benefits himself, and he needs to find a partner to share the risks. So A Niu found the leading brother in American economic circles-investment bank. These people are big names (Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Morgan). What do they do every day? Even if you are full, you are idle, so you find a Nobel economist, a Harvard professor, use the latest economic data model, make some repairs, and make several analysis reports to evaluate whether a stock is worth buying. A country's stock market has been bubbled, and a group of risk-averse people cheat to eat and drink in the risk assessment market. Do you think they see the risks? You can tell with your feet! But there are profits, so why hesitate? Take over! Therefore, economists and university professors repackaged the data model and the old three-sample evaluation, and put forward a new product-CDO (Note: Debt-backed Bond), which is a bond after all. By issuing and selling such CDO bonds, bondholders can share the risk of housing loans. If you sell it like this, the risk is too high or no one will buy it. Assume that the risk level of the original bond is 6, which belongs to medium and high. So investment banks divide it into two parts: advanced CDO and ordinary CDO. In the case of debt crisis, the old CDO enjoys the priority of compensation. In this way, the risk levels of the two parts become 4 and 8 respectively, and the total risk remains unchanged, but the former belongs to medium and low risk bonds. With the investment bank's golden words, of course, it sold a full house! But what about the remaining high-risk bonds with a risk rating of 8? So the investment bank found a hedge fund. Who is the hedge fund? It is the role of the world's financial community to buy empty goods and sell more, licking blood. This is a small risk! So relying on the old relationship, I borrowed money from the bank with the lowest interest rate in the world, and then bought this part of ordinary CDO bonds in large quantities. Before 2006, the loan interest rate of the Bank of Japan was only1.5%; The interest rate of ordinary CDO may reach 12%, so hedge funds will make a lot of money just by interest difference. In this way, something wonderful happened. At the end of 200 1, American real estate soared, more than doubling in just a few years. In this way, just like the advertisement at the beginning of the A Niu loan company, there will be no problem of not being able to afford the house. Even if there is no money to pay back, you can make a fortune selling the house. As a result, everyone from mortgage buyers to A Niu loan companies, major investment banks, banks and hedge funds made money, but the investment banks were not very happy! At first, I thought the risk of ordinary CDO was too high, so I threw it to hedge funds. I didn't expect these guys to earn more than themselves, and their net worth is still rising. I knew I kept it for fun, so the investment bank started buying hedge funds and planned to share it. It's like "Old Black" eating a bad meal at home and happened to see that annoying puppy next door and was going to poison it. I didn't expect the puppy to eat it, but it became stronger and stronger. "Old Black" was cheated. Is rotten rice more nutritious, so he began to eat it himself! Now hedge funds are very happy. Who are they, bandits who can try to lend 10 yuan to play with their hands? How can they be honest with a popular CDO? So they mortgaged their CDO bonds to the bank, got a loan of 10 times, and then continued to chase after investment banks to buy ordinary CDOs. Hey, we signed an agreement, and these CDOs are all ours! ! ! The investment bank is unhappy. In addition to continuing to buy hedge funds, they have come up with a new product called CDS. Wall Street is a hotbed of these genius products: didn't everyone think the original CDO was risky? Then I apply for insurance, and take out some money from CDO every year as insurance money and give it to the insurance company, free of charge, but there will be risks in the future. Let's share the burden. The insurance company thought, not bad. At present, CDO has made so much money that 1 cent is divided into profits. Isn't that giving us money for nothing every year? Fuck! Hedge funds thought, yes, it has been earned for several years, and the risks will become bigger and bigger in the future. Just by sharing part of the profits, the insurance company will bear half of the risks. Let's do it! So once again, everyone is happy and CDS is on fire! But things didn't end there: because "smart" Wall Street people have come up with innovative products based on CD! Suppose CDS brings us 5 billion yuan in income. I newly launched a "Sanmao" fund, which specializes in investing in CDS. Obviously, this fund based on a series of previous products is very risky, but I invested 5 billion as a deposit. If this fund loses money, use this 5 billion to advance it. Only when this 5 billion is lost will the principal of your investment begin to lose money. God, is there a better fund than this? 1 yuan face value of the fund, lost 0.90 yuan will not lose their own money, but every penny earned is their own! When rating agencies saw this genius idea, they didn't hesitate at all: give AAA rating! As a result, this "San Mao" can be sold crazy, and various pension funds, education funds, wealth management products, and even banks in other countries have also bought it. Although the initial scale was set at 50 billion yuan, it was almost impossible to estimate how many billion yuan was issued later, but the deposit of 5 billion yuan remained unchanged. If the existing scale is 500 billion yuan, the deposit can only guarantee that you will not lose money if the net value of the fund is not less than 0.99 yuan. By the end of 2006, the American real estate, which has enjoyed a beautiful scenery for five years, finally fell from its peak, and this food chain finally began to break. Because of the falling house prices, the time limit for preferential loan interest rates has come. First, ordinary people can't repay their loans, and then the A Niu loan company closed down, and hedge funds suffered huge losses, which in turn implicated insurance companies and loan banks. Citigroup and Morgan issued huge loss reports one after another, at the same time, the major investment banks that invested in hedge funds also suffered losses. Then the stock market plummeted, people generally lost money, and the number of people unable to repay their mortgages continued to increase ... Finally, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States. 1. What is economic development?
Simply put, economic development means having money, but where does the money come from? Money can only be printed. So what keeps the printing press running? Suppose there are 1000 people on an island, isolated from the world, and people exchange things for a living, but sometimes what you exchange in your hand is not necessarily what the other person wants. What should you do? So people use gold and silver, which everyone likes, as an exchange, which is convenient. But gold and silver are worn out and inconvenient to carry. When communication activities are frequent, I find this thing too complicated, which limits communication activities. So in order to solve this problem, a way was thought out, that is, the manager of the island issued a symbol instead of gold and silver, and paper money appeared. At first, this currency could be converted into gold and silver at any time. Everyone is at ease, because money is gold and silver. However, the output of gold and silver on the island is too small. When people's communication activities become more and more frequent and there is not enough money, they can only suspend communication. The consequence of stopping the exchange is that no one will produce what others want, because although others use it, they cannot exchange it, in other words, the economic development is slow. So everyone thought of a way to set up a bank to be owned by everyone. The bank will issue money, and the printed money will be lent to the person who wants to use the money, and then this person will return it to the bank when he has money. So the bank appeared. The emergence of banks can ensure that the exchange activities can be carried out more continuously. Everyone is desperately producing, and there are more and more things on the island. Banks keep printing money according to the production quantity of products to ensure that the exchange can be carried out more deeply. Later, people's communication activities became more and more frequent, and there were too few banks, so many banks appeared. There must be a bank manager, so a bank was appointed to manage other banks. Paper money can only be printed by this bank and then lent to people who use money through other banks, so the central bank appeared. 2. What is foreign trade?
One day, the people on the island invented the boat, so they rowed around and found another island with people and money, as active as their own island. However, my own island produces a lot of things, but that island produces very little. 1 Yuan money can buy 1 Jin of rice on my own island, but on that island 1 Yuan money can only buy half a catty of rice, so when money from other islands comes to this island to buy things, it can only be exchanged with 2 yuan money 1 Yuan. So the exchange rate appeared. After calculating the exchange rate, they began to buy and sell things on the other island, which is foreign trade. Foreign trade has enriched people's life and production needs, and the exchange activities have reached an unprecedented climax. 3. What is inflation?
Because there are too many products produced on the island, it is impossible to accurately estimate how much money should be sent. If you buy too many products, the price of the products will start to increase, and if you buy too few products, the price will start to decrease. In order to ensure price stability, the central bank requires banks to put some money in the central bank to adjust product prices, and put more and less according to the price situation. This is the deposit reserve ratio. However, some smart people began to get their hands on the money. He found a stone at the seaside, said it was worth 6.5438+0 million yuan, and sold it to a person. This person thinks that the total money of the whole island does not add up to 6.5438+0 million. What should I do? So he borrowed it from the bank, and the bank didn't have that much money, so he opened the printing machine and printed the 654.38+00,000. I lent it to him and bought this stone. Then this person began to sell this stone, and 6.5438+0 million yuan was sold to the second person. Because the first stone seller spent money, there was more money on the island, so this/kloc-0.00 million can be raised and more products can be bought. However, the stone has turned 2 million, and the bank can only print 6.5438+0 million more banknotes, so the banknotes are printed more and more. However, when the stones were constantly moved, people didn't feel that there was more money on the island, and the price of the products was still the same. However, when stones don't circulate or circulate slowly, people think there is more money. But if the person holding the stone throws it into the sea, it means that there is N 1 10,000 on the island out of thin air. What shall we do? What the central bank fears most is that the stone is gone. Without it, the price of products on the island will soar and inflation will occur. Then people with stones kidnapped the island's economy.
4. Can house prices kidnap China's economy?
China's real estate has caused the Central Bank of China to issue too much RMB. If the house price drops, it is equivalent to throwing that stone into the sea. Printing so much money will make the price of China products soar and cause serious inflation. House prices seem to have nothing to do with stones, but their attributes are the same, that is, the serious deviation between price and value. In fact, it was not the commercial banks in China that collapsed the real estate, but the whole economic system in China. Why does the government delay in lowering housing prices? Not that it can't be healthy. If you really want to lower the house price, you only need a decree, and the real estate price will collapse overnight. But who will bear the consequences and who will be responsible for the serious inflation? It is an indisputable objective fact that the real estate industry kidnapped China's economy, and no one can change it. No matter who is the prime minister, no matter whether he is clean or corrupt, he wants social harmony, but this is a thorny issue.
5. Is there a relationship between house price and inflation?
But the more difficult problem is not just here. If we lower the house price, we will face the immediate inflation, but there is no need to lower the house price, then we will face more serious inflation. Where are you going? Therefore, the most reliable way is to stabilize housing prices, and then reduce the amount of money when social products increase, plus other policies such as raising interest rates, increasing the reserve ratio of commercial banks, reducing the scale of credit and other auxiliary means, so as to make China's economy soft landing. This is the best way, and all the decrees we have seen are the same logic. If you don't believe me, you can take a look at a series of measures to regulate the real estate industry released by go-vern-ment. But why are house prices unstable and even crazier? Is this a game between developers and go-vern-ment? Tell you, no one in China can compare with the party, and several developers with bigger stomachs don't have the strength. In fact, another black hand is playing with the China government. This black hand is the black hand of foreign capital, and imperialism represented by the United States is grabbing the blood and sweat of the people of China. 6. What is the driving force behind high housing prices?
There are many driving forces for housing prices to rise, and those who are beneficial to housing prices are one of them. For example, for the sake of GDP and personal interests, local governments want to make money from developers, real estate speculators, and even so-called house slaves, all of which are the drivers of rising house prices, but the biggest drivers are not these, but foreign capital, and the major consortia in the United States seize excess profits. As businessmen, it is not unnatural for developers to earn high profits, but there are businessmen in all walks of life. Do they want to make money? Unless it is a myth. The same is true for developers in the real estate industry, who do not want to earn as much as they want. According to the law of value, when the price of goods deviates from the value seriously, there will be a force tending to return to the normal price to curb the price increase. However, in China's real estate industry, this law seems to be invalid. An important reason is that a reference range is neglected. If China's economy itself is really illegal, the situation is that there is a force to maintain the price of the real estate industry, that is, to support the market. So who is supporting the market? Those who can get out of control in the real estate industry and make huge profits are the people who support the market. Before discussing this issue, let's look at China's foreign exchange reserves. In recent years, China's foreign exchange reserves have rapidly exceeded one trillion from 1.2 trillion, and are still growing rapidly. Did the people of China work hard to earn it? This does not need to be proved. Just look at China's GDP growth. The growth rate of foreign exchange reserves is obviously greater than that of GDP. Obviously, it is not earned, so in addition to the earned part, it is the influx of so-called "international hot money". The influx of international hot money has only one purpose, that is, to obtain high returns. After international hot money enters the China market, it must first be converted into RMB, so how can there be so many RMB at once? There is only one way to make the printing press work day and night, and then use the money to support the real estate market, which is already a hot potato, and that is to invest desperately in the real estate industry. When the real estate price fluctuates downward because it deviates from the value, it will be raised by supporting the market and other means, giving people the appearance that the real estate price has never deviated from the value. As a result, house prices are rising higher and higher. As for developers, when the house is to be sold, someone will pay a high price to buy it. How do they reduce the price? Without this part of the funds in operation, let alone the developer alliance, that is, there is only one developer in the country, and the price will come down, and no one will buy it. Is it necessary to wait for the house to get moldy? So what do foreign investors do with so many high-priced properties? Aren't you afraid of hitting it in your hand? Not afraid! Why? In the process of capital operation, there is a big head at the bottom. who is it? Don't commercial banks in China, because of the booming real estate market and first-class liquidity, see no signs of shrinking, and put loans on profits, why don't they lend? There is no reason not to lend. Coupled with the domestic people's feelings of buying houses, it is easy for foreign investors to transfer high-priced houses to domestic banks and consumers, and even farmers who speculate in real estate can get a slice of it. Will professional foreign investors lose money? So what will happen if house prices continue to rise? 7. Will developers laugh or cry when house prices continue to rise? When do you laugh? Under what circumstances will you cry?
In recent years, under the control of dozens of gold medals by the China municipal government, house prices are still running like wild horses out of control. For the time being, no matter when the rise can stop, after all, house prices are still rising, so it depends on what the rise in house prices will bring. First of all, due to the rising GDP, the China government has to continuously invest RMB, that is, start the printing press to maintain the above-mentioned product exchange. As long as the real estate stone is not put into the sea and has certain liquidity, then there will be no inflation. Secondly, developers will also get huge profits in this process. Once again: what can be seen is that the real estate speculators will make money, and the so-called house slaves who buy houses will increase in value. Make money! But who lost in the process? where is the money to come from? If you have experience in stock trading, you will know that if you invest in a commodity whose price and value deviate from each other, the money you earn is the money that others lose. Then, if it is applied to real estate, it means that people who buy houses live in it, which seems to increase in value. That's the moon in the mirror, the flower in the water. If you don't realize it, it's not yours. Then there are investors who are trapped in high-priced houses when the price completely returns to the real value, and sometimes even fall below the real value. Another is the developer! Why do developers also lose money? Everyone knows that the essence of businessmen is to make money, not to make profits. If a businessman speculates once and never does this business, he makes money, but he is not a businessman. This kind of business behavior is meaningless. Because of the nature of businessmen, the money earned will continue to expand reproduction and increase investment in areas that can make money. This truth can be seen from life. The business is getting bigger and bigger, and there are always people shouting that there is no money, because more liquidity is needed to maintain the need of expanding reproduction. So once the house price returns to its true value, a large number of developers will close down. This is independent of anyone's will and any behavior. If a developer escapes from the real estate stage, the last loser is the one who runs slowly. If they don't run, it's like passing a parcel, and the receiver gets the baton at last. There is a saying: you have to pay back sooner or later when you come out to hang out. Maybe it's just a different way to see who's lucky. However, there is no indication that developers are losing money. Some developers are constantly making money, and ordinary people are too late to send money. Just because house prices are still rising, real estate is still flowing. A huge problem has come. When will this rise in housing prices end? 8. How did the consortium sitting in the Wall Street office drain the blood and sweat of a farmer in the mountainous area of China?
Chairman Mao once said: Imperialism is not sleeping, but is stirring every day in an attempt to achieve their evil goals. Admittedly, their arrogance is not as arrogant as before, but they are really active. Does the end of the cold war represent the realization of human peace? Can a sentence that everyone is equal before God cover up the blood-sucking nature of imperialism? The idea that everyone is equal is right, but this is just a trick used by imperialism to deceive people. Saying and doing are always two different things. International consortia poured into China through international hot money, which increased the circulation of RMB. Then, through real estate speculation, the domestic price level in China was raised infinitely, and the growth of GDP forced the circulation of RMB to increase again. The purpose of the international consortium is to make China's economy hot and everyone in China crazy. We don't care about this process for the time being. Let's look to the future and see what the result of this process is. In other words, what is the purpose of the consortium? Obviously, the last thing China people want to see is the result that the consortia are most willing to see. Let's make a hypothesis. For example, after the international hot money staged the final madness in China real estate investment, the real estate was successfully untied and fully realized. If the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar reaches the highest expectation at this time, the exchange rate is the multiple that hot money needs to be multiplied when fleeing. You can imagine what will happen. All the hot money will be converted into US dollars and flee overnight. The consortium will make a lot of money. Money is the only thing in the China market, and a large amount of RMB that can cover the sky will become a nightmare for the people of China. This is the last thing China people want to see, and it is also the most happy result of the consortium. The United States constantly forces the RMB to appreciate through political and trade means, while the China administration does not appreciate or slightly appreciates, which is far from the expectation of the US government. This is a game between China and the United States at the exit. The wolf ambition of the United States to force the RMB to appreciate is obvious! By the way, if this expectation of appreciation really comes true, the China property market will repeat the history of the Japanese crash in the 1990s. Only then will China's economy, like the Japanese, enter a sustained downturn. Will the government stand idly by on this matter of national survival? Even to say the least, a completely irresponsible go-vern-ment will encounter this situation, because this kind of capital operation has also greatly violated the interests of go-vern-ment, and it will fight back desperately. So, in what way will the China government solve this economic crisis?