What is the employment trend in China in recent years? Under the concrete analysis

Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood. The Twelfth Five-Year Plan emphasizes the implementation of a more active employment policy and regards promoting full employment as the priority goal of economic and social development. Recently, new changes have taken place in China's employment situation, which is highlighted by the coexistence of difficulties in recruiting workers in some areas and employment for some people. The period of accelerated development of industrialization and urbanization is originally a period of drastic changes in social employment, which inevitably makes China, the most populous country in the world, face a rare employment problem when it is superimposed with accelerating the transformation of economic development mode and promoting the strategic adjustment of economic structure. How to judge the employment situation in China at present and even in the whole Twelfth Five-Year Plan period? How to deal with the pressures, challenges and changes in employment? Three articles published in this issue of Topics of the Week explain this. The new characteristics of the employment situation in China The complexity of the current employment situation in China lies in the fact that while the phenomenon of "shortage of migrant workers" is widespread, the employment difficulties of college graduates still exist, and the phenomenon of urban unemployment persists. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon is not difficult to understand, because each employment group faces different reasons for employment difficulties. The phenomenon of labor shortage in the form of "labor shortage" is caused by the contradiction between labor supply and labor demand. With the change of population structure, the increase of working-age population is decreasing year by year. At the same time, rapid economic growth continues to generate demand for labor. This leads to a shortage of labor. On the other hand, structural employment pressure still exists. Migrant workers have not yet become urban registered residents, their employment is unstable, their social security is not perfect, they face the risk of periodic unemployment, and they are still vulnerable groups in the labor market. The employment difficulty of college graduates is not caused by oversupply in the market, but by the mismatch between individual employment willingness and skills and opportunities and needs in the labor market. As for the unemployment and employment difficulties of urban residents, there are both the mismatch of employment skills and the insufficient adjustment function of the labor market. The labor market risks faced by these two employment groups are mainly structural and frictional natural unemployment. Taking 20 1 1 as an example, we can make a rough quantitative estimation of the composition of the employment-difficult groups that need to be paid attention to in the future urban labor market: after excluding the floating part of rural areas, the number of migrant workers entering urban employment is about1460,000; There are about 6.6 million newly graduated college students, plus 6.5438+0.5 million unemployed graduates in previous years, totaling more than 8 million; According to the high registered unemployment rate of 4.3% in recent years, the number of urban unemployed and likely unemployed is about160,000; Suppose that half of the more than 80 million flexible employees have stable employment, and the other 40 million are people with employment difficulties. These groups may overlap, but on the whole, they can reflect the number and composition of groups with employment difficulties, that is, nearly half of all urban employees often face obvious employment difficulties. It can be seen that understanding the current employment problem requires two understandings. First, the employment problem will not be alleviated because of labor shortage, and it should continue to be given priority in economic and social policies as the focus of government work. Secondly, the problem of total employment, which has troubled us for a long time and has been the focus of employment policy, is gradually turning into a structural employment problem. The government needs to adapt to this change, change the focus and implementation means of active employment policy in time, and formulate more targeted employment promotion strategies and support policies for various employment groups. According to the new characteristics of the employment situation, to implement a more active employment policy, we should consider the key points and concerns of the policy from the following aspects. Maintain the ability of economic growth to absorb employment in the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure. The implementation of employment priority strategy should be reflected in industrial policy, and continuing to expand employment is the proper meaning of industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. With the shortage of ordinary workers, the wage cost has greatly increased, and the industrial structure in the eastern region will be upgraded to capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries, which will inevitably reduce some traditional jobs and increase the demand for skilled labor. It takes time to improve the overall quality of workers. Therefore, it is still the priority principle of industrial restructuring to create jobs suitable for existing workers and their human capital and maintain stable employment expansion. The adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure in the eastern region should be combined with the undertaking of labor-intensive industries in the central and western regions to prevent the vacuum of comparative advantage and the loss of jobs. China has a vast territory, and there are great differences in resource endowments and development among regions, which provides a large space for industrial transfer, and is also conducive to maintaining the relative stability of economic growth in the scale of employment absorption and preventing the phenomenon of "jobless growth". At the same time, on the basis of upgrading the manufacturing industry, we will promote the separation of producer services, make it a new service format, and create suitable jobs for college graduates. A certain change in the relationship between labor supply and demand does not mean that the industrial structure and organization are no longer based on employment absorption capacity. It is necessary to increase support from relaxing access restrictions, providing equal financial services, tax incentives, etc., to promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, micro-enterprises and non-public economy, and give play to their functions of expanding employment. Seize key groups, provide better public employment services, and implement more targeted active employment policies. Since the end of 1990s, the government of China has gradually formed a positive employment policy. At that time, the focus was on creating urban employment opportunities and helping laid-off and unemployed people to achieve re-employment. With the change of labor supply and demand, the employment policy should gradually change the focus and provide more extensive employment assistance for different employment groups. In view of the characteristics of migrant workers' vulnerability to the macroeconomic cycle and low coverage of social security, we can improve the stability of migrant workers' employment and the adequacy of social security by improving the sensitivity of macroeconomic policies to the employment situation, promoting the reform of household registration system and improving the equalization of basic public services. The employment difficulties of college graduates mainly lie in the mismatch between their knowledge and skills and the needs of the labor market. Therefore, to solve the employment difficulties of college students, we should start with the higher education system, internship system, employment training and intermediary services, and improve the matching efficiency between human capital and labor market. People with employment difficulties in cities and towns often encounter structural and frictional unemployment and related employment difficulties due to factors such as older age, low education level, aging skills and weak job-seeking ability. It is necessary to improve the allocation efficiency of the labor market and the employment service level of the government, so as to reduce their employment difficulties. (Author Cai Fang Unit: Institute of Population and Labor Economics, China Academy of Social Sciences) In recent years, with the changes in the relationship between labor supply and demand and the rapid economic development in the central and western regions, the regional structure of labor mobility and employment has undergone profound changes, especially the increasing number of migrant workers who have returned home to start businesses and find jobs locally. The employment situation in the eastern region is more severe, and the problem of labor shortage is increasingly prominent. The economic growth rate in the eastern region is relatively slow, and the employment attraction is declining. In 2009, the GDP of the eastern region increased by 10.8% year-on-year, which was 0.9 and 4.2 percentage points slower than that of the central and western regions respectively. From 20 10 to 10, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in the eastern region increased by 12% year-on-year, which was 3.8 and 2 percentage points lower than that in the central and western regions respectively. The investment in urban fixed assets increased by 2 1.5% year-on-year, which was 5.6 and 4.7 percentage points lower than that in the central and western regions respectively. Accordingly, more migrant workers in the central and western regions returned to their local areas for employment. Employment is unstable and labor disputes are frequent. On the one hand, the processing and manufacturing industry in the eastern region is relatively concentrated, mainly engaged in the export processing of low-end products such as clothing, shoes and hats, which is easily affected by fluctuations in the international market; On the other hand, the vast majority of migrant workers have not signed long-term labor contracts. Some employees of small and medium-sized enterprises find it difficult to work with peace of mind because of poor production and living conditions. Some enterprises, with high labor intensity and long overtime hours, often recruit in batches in the peak season of production and quickly lay off employees in the off-season, which reduces the sense of belonging of employees and leads to unstable employment. At the same time, labor disputes have entered a period of frequent occurrence, and sudden and group labor disputes have occurred from time to time. The shortage of migrant workers tends to normal. Since the second half of 2009, with the economic recovery in China, the demand for labor in the eastern region has increased rapidly, and the shortage of labor has become increasingly prominent. In the first three quarters of 20 10 in Zhejiang province, the number of enterprises in demand was more than the number of job seekers105000, and the recruitment ratio (number of employees in demand/number of job seekers) was as high as 1.99. Since 20 10, the recruitment rate in Fujian province has been above 1. In the coming period, the economy of the central and western regions will continue to grow rapidly, the attraction to migrant workers will continue to increase, and the labor shortage in the eastern region will change from seasonality to normality. The income growth of migrant workers is slow. The income growth of migrant workers in the eastern region is relatively slow, and the income gap with the central and western regions is narrowing. According to the survey of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the third quarter of 20 10, the average monthly income of migrant workers in the eastern, central and western regions was 1665 yuan, 16 17 yuan and16/kloc-0 yuan, respectively, increasing by 2/kloc. The average monthly income gap between the eastern region and the central and western regions is the highest, only in 54 yuan, and the income growth rate is 2 percentage points lower than that in the central and western regions. Coupled with the high cost of living in the eastern region, the income level of migrant workers in the eastern region is no longer dominant. Vocational skills training is seriously lagging behind. With the acceleration of industrial upgrading in the eastern region, the demand for workers' skills is getting higher and higher, but the existing training facilities and training capabilities are far from the actual needs. Facing the severe employment situation, the eastern region should take Scientific Outlook on Development as the guide, closely combine the realization of taking the lead in development, accelerating the upgrading and stability of industrial structure, expanding employment and alleviating the underemployment, and strive to achieve a benign interaction between economic growth and employment promotion. Accelerate the transformation of economic development mode, expand employment and attract talents in promoting the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. Seize the favorable opportunity to implement the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, create more employment opportunities suitable for labor with high professional skills, and attract more new generation of migrant workers to find jobs. At the same time, accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure, accelerate the development of producer services such as finance, logistics, tourism, consulting and information services, and domestic services such as housekeeping, further develop traditional service industries, increase the proportion of employment in service industries, and stabilize and expand the scale of employment. Strengthen the mediation and arbitration of labor disputes and promote the harmony of labor relations. Actively innovate mediation and arbitration, reasonably determine the allocation standards of mediation and arbitration institutions, staffing, funds and facilities, and promote the standardization of mediation and arbitration. Increase the publicity of policies and regulations such as labor and employment, timely investigate the hidden dangers of employers' employment, help enterprises improve and strengthen management, and establish stable and harmonious labor relations. Improve the early warning and emergency handling mechanism of labor relations, resolve contradictions at the grassroots level in time, and solve them in the bud. Improve the employment policy system and improve the quality of employment, especially the employment, production and living environment of migrant workers. Accelerate the construction of the policy system of urban and rural overall employment and promote equal employment of labor force. Efforts will be made to optimize the working environment of migrant workers, accelerate the implementation of policies to relax the conditions for the settlement of small and medium-sized towns, and promote the settlement of migrant workers in employment places. Improve the social security system for migrant workers and the monitoring and early warning mechanism for migrant workers' employment and unemployment registration. Strengthen vocational skills training and improve the employability of workers. Explore the establishment of an overall coordination mechanism for vocational skills training, and gradually form a work pattern with clear division of labor and clear responsibilities. According to the needs of economic development and employment, continuously improve the pertinence and effectiveness of training. Encourage enterprises to organize employee job skills training and give corresponding subsidies. Further improve the use and management system of training subsidy funds, strict working procedures, and improve the efficiency of use. Strengthen public employment and entrepreneurship services and improve public service capabilities. Promote the construction of urban and rural grassroots public employment service system, strengthen inter-regional employment information communication, and guide the orderly flow of labor. Scientific planning, rational layout, promote the construction of business incubation bases and service centers, and continuously enhance the ability of business services. Increase investment, accelerate the formation of a mediation and arbitration service system with perfect facilities and standardized management, and improve the ability to handle labor disputes. According to local conditions, integrate resources, build a number of training bases with high standards and high quality to meet multi-level needs, and improve training capabilities in all directions. (Author Hu Deqiao Sun Unit: Employment and Income Distribution Department of the National Development and Reform Commission) At present, the employment situation in China is very complicated, and it is difficult for migrant workers and college graduates to find jobs, which leads to great differences in people's judgments on the employment situation. Some people think that the difficulty in recruiting workers means the arrival of lewis turning point, marking the end of the era of oversupply of labor in China. In fact, to accurately judge the employment situation in China, we need to analyze it from two levels: supply and demand and system. Judging from the relationship between supply and demand, the employment pressure in China has further increased during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. From the perspective of supply, the labor supply during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period is more than that during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period. First of all, during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, the growth of working-age population in China is still at its peak, and the number of urban laborers who need employment reaches 25 million every year. Secondly, the "three meetings" of college graduates, rural surplus labor force and laid-off workers have great employment pressure. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the number of college graduates has been increasing, with an average annual scale of about 6.67 million, an increase of 1.27 million over the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period; The rural surplus labor force is still1.200 million, and the pressure of rural labor force transfer and employment is still great; The number of registered unemployed people carried forward every year is expected to be100000, which will further increase the difficulty of solving new unemployment problems in structural adjustment and laid-off unemployment problems left over from history. Third, the structural contradiction of employment is more prominent. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China is facing a major adjustment of industrial structure, which will be accompanied by a large number of structural contradictions in the employment field. On the one hand, it is the contradiction between workers' professional skills and job requirements; On the other hand, it is the structural contradiction of employment in different regions. In the central and western regions, poverty-stricken areas, resource-exhausted cities and ethnic minority areas, the employment problem in cities and towns is still serious, and there are still a large number of surplus labor forces in rural areas that are difficult to transfer. From the demand point of view, the changes in the macroeconomic environment during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period pose new challenges to employment. First of all, China's economy and employment will still be affected by the post-international financial crisis in the early period of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, and it is difficult for external demand to return to the previous level. This has a great impact on foreign trade enterprises and is not conducive to their employment. Secondly, the transformation of economic development mode challenges employment. Backward production capacity will be phased out, resulting in new structural unemployment; The transformation of economic development mode objectively requires the orderly transfer of labor between industries, and requires the development of the tertiary industry to absorb the surplus labor generated by the intensive management of the primary and secondary industries; The adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure, scientific and technological progress and management innovation put forward higher requirements for the quality of workers. Third, the difficulty in recruiting workers in some areas has not changed the general trend of oversupply of labor. The reasons why it is difficult to recruit workers in some areas are the economic recovery in China, the increase of enterprise orders, the need to expand recruitment in the central and western regions due to economic growth, the huge difference between the expectations of the new generation of migrant workers and the employment conditions of some enterprises, and the dislocation of skills, recruitment time and information docking between the supply and demand sides. We should attach great importance to these problems, but we can't think that there is an inflection point in the pattern of employment supply and demand in China. According to the population forecast, the population of China will increase from more than 65.438+0.34 billion in 2065.438+00 to about 65.438+0.4 billion in 2020, and continue to increase to about 65.438+0.5 billion in 2033. Therefore, for a long time to come, the pressure on the total labor force in China will continue to increase, and the pattern of oversupply will not fundamentally change. From the institutional point of view, China's employment work faces both challenges and opportunities. The challenges are as follows: First, the rapid development of urbanization puts forward new requirements for rural labor transfer and employment services. China is in the period of rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, and a large number of rural surplus labor will be transferred to the secondary and tertiary industries in cities and towns. There is an urgent need to solve the problems of migrant workers' stable employment, vocational training, wages and benefits, social security and their children's schooling and daily life, so as to help them integrate into the city smoothly. Secondly, China's employment system does not meet the requirements of socialized employment management. The main manifestations are: insufficient investment in public employment services, lack of grassroots platforms, and backward service functions and means; The informatization construction of the employment market is lagging behind, the employment information of small and medium-sized enterprises and micro-enterprises has not been included in the normal statistical scope, the employment information has not been networked nationwide, the dynamic monitoring of the human resources market is weak, and the unemployment monitoring and early warning mechanism needs to be improved; Institutional obstacles to labor mobility still exist, affecting the effective allocation of labor resources. Opportunities: First, the Party and the government attach great importance to the issue of employment, and put forward that expanding employment is the top priority to protect and improve people's livelihood, and promoting employment is the priority goal of economic and social development. This will be a powerful guarantee for doing a good job in employment during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. Secondly, the effectiveness of various laws and policies to promote employment will be further released, and the employment and entrepreneurial environment will be further improved. Third, the concept of market employment is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, the market employment mechanism is further mature, workers are more rational and pragmatic in job hunting, and employment methods are increasingly diversified. At the same time, the urban and rural public employment service system has basically taken shape, which can provide corresponding services for workers and employers.