In response to the economic tone in 2022, the official voice!
In 2022, the property market must be stable.
There is such a statement in the draft:
Grasp the key words: stability
Stability is everything.
On the same day, a press release of the "National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction" was released, which stated to the property market:
It is meaningful to fully release the housing needs of residents.
The combination of the two basically determines the trend of the property market in 2022.
In 2022, the property market was stable and gradually picked up.
But also the key to just need and improvement. 1 year!
Some time ago, the economic data of 202 1 was released, and the growth rate of 8. 1% was not easy.
But quarterly, the growth rate was 18.3% in the first quarter, 7.9% in the second quarter, 4.9% in the third quarter and 4.0% in the fourth quarter.
The growth rate in the second half of the year dropped significantly compared with the first half, mainly in real estate. In the second half of the year, the property market was over-regulated, local transactions were frozen and house prices fell.
The proportion of real estate and construction industry in China's GDP is close to 14%.
The GDP statistics of the third quarter of last year, whether it is wholesale and retail, transportation, accommodation and catering, financial industry, software and information services. Both achieved year-on-year growth.
Only the real estate industry's GDP decreased by 1.6%, and the construction industry decreased by 1.8%.
In the fourth quarter, the decline was more obvious. Real estate GDP decreased by 2.9% and construction industry by 2. 1%.
This is the core reason for the decline in economic growth in the second half of the year.
In 2022, we must stabilize the economy and the property market.
Moreover, there is a more important reason to stabilize the property market: stable employment.
At present, there are nearly 70 million people who eat directly from the real estate industry. If the families behind these 70 million people are counted, the number of indirectly affected people may reach 200-300 million.
Therefore, the real estate industry cannot close down.
We know that China's economy is highly dependent on real estate, but it is unrealistic to divest itself completely. We are in an era of rapid development. Strictly speaking, this is not a dependence, but a need.
It is wrong for us to simply judge that the economy depends on real estate. All problems should be solved in development, not eliminated by artificial forces.
What's more, even in the United States, although the statistical methods of real estate in the two countries are different, the added value of real estate in the United States accounts for a higher proportion of GDP than in China.
Of course, the tone of staying and not speculating will definitely not change.
However, under the general tone, these actions have been recognized and supported by the city's policy of meeting the just-needed and improved needs.
Therefore, there is a saying of "fully releasing the housing needs of residents".
It is also the practice of accelerating lending, reducing bank points and cutting interest rates in the early years of 2022.
In addition, there is actually another layer behind "fully releasing the housing needs of residents", that is, consumption.
Buying a house is a very large consumption expenditure for ordinary families, which needs to be boosted by confidence.
Previously, when referring to the current economic situation, the Central Economic Work Conference stated this way: "China's economic development faces triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations."
The obvious point of demand contraction is insufficient consumption motivation, and people are reluctant to consume because of lack of confidence in expectations.
I don't know how long the epidemic will last, I don't know whether my job will be lost at any time, and my income can't guarantee continuous growth.
Because of this, in 20021year, the number of applicants for national civil servants exceeded 2 million, the number of applicants for teacher qualification examination exceeded 9 million, and the number of applicants for postgraduate entrance examination in 2022 exceeded 4.5 million.
From the perspective of the property market, the fear of not buying is: will house prices continue to decline, and it is more cost-effective to buy later.
Therefore, reversing expectations and encouraging everyone to spend is also the focus of boosting the economy in 2022.
As a result, measures to enhance confidence have come!
First of all, monetary easing is coming!
At the beginning of the year, the mortgage interest rate dropped directly!
65438+At the beginning of February, the central bank lowered the RRR by 0.5 percentage point, and put in 1.2 trillion.
By 65438+1October 17, the winning bid rate of MLF and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreased 10 BP, which directly pointed to the LPR's interest rate reduction of 65438+1October 20th.
Sure enough, on October 20th, 65438 1 year, the interest rate of1year decreased 10 BP, and the interest rate of 5-year LPR, which affected everyone's mortgage, also decreased by 5%.
The gradual decline in toothpaste extrusion is in line with regulatory expectations, and Mr. Beard predicts that there will be another five-year LPR interest rate cut in February and March.
Behind RRR's interest rate cuts and interest rate cuts is the determination to stabilize economic growth in 2022.
Moreover, at the press conference of 5438+ 10/8 in June, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the central bank, said that we should make every effort to open the monetary policy toolbox wider, keep the aggregate stable and avoid the credit collapse.
So there was a wave of violence immediately after the beginning of the year, and the mortgage interest rate dropped directly!
I can see that Yang Ma is in a hurry.
Indeed, it is very important to release confidence at the beginning of the year and basically set the tone for the whole year.
Not only has the LPR interest rate been lowered, but as early as the fourth quarter of last year, mortgage interest rates in core cities across the country have begun to fall from a high level.
Guangzhou directly fell again at the beginning of the year, with the first set falling back to 5.65% and the second set falling back to 5.85%;
Suzhou mortgage interest rate broke through the five-year historical low, from the highest 6% to 4.65%, and it was directly lowered by cliff.
Not only has the interest rate been lowered, but the speed of lending has also been significantly accelerated. Suzhou will lend money in two days at the earliest.
So there are cities with markets at the end of the year, such as Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou and so on.
This is also in line with the previous statement: fully release the housing needs of residents.
Not only that, but there are two keys to this sentence:
In short, everything is to benefit the just-needed and encourage consumption.
There are many bumps ahead, for fear that everyone will miss the key points. Finally, I will summarize them for you:
1. In the case of steady growth, the regulation of the property market will not be overweight in 2022, but there will be further benefits. It is expected that there will be more RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and even deregulation may be possible.
In this case, loose money is the mainstream this year. Under the release of water, it is still a crucial year to hold high-quality assets, especially for people who just need it and improve it. This year's favorable policies for the property market will be tilted towards this group of people.
Whether it is the first set or substitution, we must seize this very rare opportunity.
The epidemic is expected to be decisive this year, and experts also said that this year will be the last cold winter.
After the epidemic, I believe that the economy will obviously recover, and the economy will improve, which will benefit the property market. Next, it will be a year of active assets.
3, housing is consumption, buying a house is the biggest domestic demand, with steady growth and confidence, and 2022 is the key 1 year.
The dark period of the property market is also a critical moment to lay out the core city real estate in advance.
This year is not a year to wait and see with money, but to attack accurately and enjoy the dividends brought by this round of monetary easing and policies.
After all, when the water comes, you still have to pick it up with something real. Otherwise, you can only be a bystander, not a participant, just watching it loose and letting it run away.
The plan of the year lies in spring, and the spring thunder has already started, and it is expected to be another bumper year.