Every reporter Wu Ruofan, every editor Chen Mengyu.
The power of policy is emerging.
Since the introduction of the three red lines and the centralized loan policy, the supply and demand side of housing financing has been continuously tightened.
According to Kerry's incomplete statistics, the financing amount of typical real estate enterprises in the first half of 2002 100 was 609 billion yuan, down 34% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, the lowest level since 20 18 years. At the same time, the financing situation of enterprises is not optimistic. Only 36% of housing enterprises have increased their financing scale, and about 30% of housing enterprises with reduced scale have dropped by more than 50% year-on-year.
The scale of financing has been greatly reduced.
With the continuous tightening of various policies, the financing scale of housing enterprises has dropped sharply, and the effect of centralized mortgage management has begun to show, and the growth rate of real estate loans in the banking industry has reached a record low. Judging from the stability and continuity of policy regulation, the financing environment will remain tight in the second half of the year.
It is worth noting that the financing scale of medium-sized housing enterprises has declined most obviously, and it is directly cut.
Specifically, the financing amount of the four major echelon housing enterprises all decreased year-on-year. According to the data of Ke Rui, in the first half of the year, the financing scale of TOP3 1~50 housing enterprises decreased by 53.50% to 92.2 billion yuan, while that of TOP1~ 30 housing enterprises decreased by 23.48%, with the smallest decline.
In this regard, the financial manager of a TOP 15 housing enterprise told the National Business Daily that there are three main reasons for the decline in the financing scale of housing enterprises. First, the double restrictions imposed by the central bank on commercial banks (companies and mortgages) at the end of last year led to the contraction of loans and mortgages this year and the decline in financing; Second, real estate risk events occur frequently, and limited resources are more concentrated in head housing enterprises, so that the bargaining power of state-owned enterprises is improved and the average cost is reduced; Third, in the first half of this year, the circulation of urban investment bonds decreased by 40% compared with last year, and the market liquidity was abundant, which also reduced the cost of capital.
The above-mentioned financial person in charge told reporters that the decline in interest-bearing liabilities will be directly reflected in the scale of financing.
The halving of financing scale of TOP30~50 housing enterprises is mainly due to the need to reduce leverage. As such enterprises stop expanding after stepping on the line, reducing debts and recovering funds become their only choice.
The whole industry faces the supervision of three red lines. As long as the top-ranking housing enterprises do not step on the red line, they will face little pressure to reduce interest-bearing liabilities and will not have much impact on financing. If the financial situation is relatively stable, there will be no large-scale decline in liabilities.
In contrast, if there are more head stocks, there will be no leverage and no inventory.
Housing enterprises ranked TOP 10~30 may take more land if they have room to increase leverage, while some enterprises that have to reduce leverage will take less land this year in order to control the debt scale.
In this context, housing enterprises will adjust their strategies according to their own balance sheets. At present, housing enterprises generally adopt two business strategies, one is to reduce leverage, the other is that the original leverage is not high, and green enterprises take the opportunity to scale up and expand.
The most typical one is attracting investment in Shekou. According to the data of Ke Rui, by the end of the first half of 20021,the added value of China Merchants Shekou was189 billion yuan, and the amount of land acquired increased by nearly 95% year-on-year.
Financing costs continue to decline.
According to Cree data, as of June, 2002 100, the financing cost of new bonds for typical real estate enterprises in100 was 5.59%, 0.48 percentage points lower than that in 2020, of which the financing cost of overseas bonds reached 6.86%, 0.97 percentage points lower, and the financing cost of domestic bonds was 4.40%, 0.03 percentage points lower than that in 2020.
The reason for the decrease in financing cost in the first half of the year is that leading enterprises with relatively low financing cost such as China Merchants Shekou and Poly issued more bonds, of which the overseas financing cost decreased by 1.66 percentage points; At the same time, among the top 3 1~50 housing enterprises, COSCO and Yuexiu issued a large number of overseas bonds, which reduced the overseas financing cost of this echelon of housing enterprises by 0.73 percentage points.
Why is the financing scale declining and the financing cost of housing enterprises decreasing? The above-mentioned person in charge of finance told the reporter that from the perspective of funds, under the control of interest-bearing liabilities, the financing cost of housing enterprises with deep cooperation with banks will be lower, because the capital demand of housing enterprises is not large, and there may already be an incremental demand of 10% ~ 20%, but under the control of three red lines, the space for housing enterprises to obtain incremental funds is limited.
"Suppose that the interest-bearing liabilities of Housing Enterprise A this year are 654.38+000 billion yuan. Without increasing the scale, there is no incremental development loan, which means that the gap between housing enterprises and development loans is very small, leading to banks. If they want to cooperate with the head housing enterprises, they must take the initiative to lower interest rates. Whoever has less interest will cooperate with them. " The above-mentioned financial person in charge said.
In terms of the nature of enterprises, the financing scale of private enterprises has not changed much in June compared with that in May, but the financing scale of state-owned enterprises has rebounded sharply, mainly due to the increase in bond issuance by local state-owned enterprises. In June, the financing scale of state-owned enterprises reached 45.24 billion yuan, a substantial increase from May 123. 1%, accounting for 78.9% of the total financing scale this month. At the same time, the proportion of state-owned enterprises has further increased. In terms of local state-owned enterprises, the financing scale of credit bonds of local state-owned enterprises rose to 33.47 billion yuan in June, accounting for 58.3% of the total financing scale, mainly due to the increase in the issuance of local housing enterprises.
At the news briefing in June, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that since the first half of the year, real estate financing has shown the characteristics of "five consecutive declines". The growth rate of real estate loans, the concentration of real estate loans, the scale of real estate trust, the scale of wealth management products invested in non-standard real estate assets, and the scale of funds invested in real estate through special purpose vehicles all showed a continuous downward trend, and the problem of excessive capital inflow into the real estate market was improved.
Generally speaking, the regulators are still vigilant and tight about the financing of the real estate industry. For housing enterprises, speeding up the payment of sales, improving the internal management of enterprises and improving the efficiency of capital use are still the next core themes.
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Editor in charge: Qiqi