Several families are happy and several families are sad. Even in well-developed industries, there will be performance polarization. Funeng Technology recently released the performance forecast for 20021year, and it is estimated that the loss in 20021year will be 800 million yuan to1billion yuan, an increase year-on-year. Funeng Technology said that although the operating income increased significantly this year, the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company and the net profit loss attributable to the owners of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses increased compared with the same period of last year.
Why is the performance polarized?
202 1 Domestic new energy vehicles gradually changed from policy-driven to market-driven. Driven by market demand and energy storage construction, the demand of lithium battery industry is growing rapidly, but at the same time, the lithium battery industry is also affected by factors such as rising raw material prices.
Two worlds of ice and fire: record high performance and expanding losses
According to the data of the Federation, in 20021year, the domestic retail volume of new energy vehicle terminals was 2.989 million, an increase of 169. 1%. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said that in 20021year, new energy vehicles achieved a partial substitution effect on the fuel automobile market, which proved the change of consumer demand through users' market choice and accelerated the transformation of the automobile market to new energy sources.
From the narrow sense of the power battery industry, pre-happiness in performance is also the general trend of the industry. The estimated net profit of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is1400 million-1650 million yuan, up from 150% to 195% year-on-year. If the maximum is 165 billion, the average daily income is 45 million. It is worth mentioning that this is also the highest profit level of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. since its listing on 20 18.
Peng Hui Energy said that in 20021year, the revenue of energy storage battery business increased significantly year-on-year, the consumer battery business maintained steady growth, and the revenue of automobile power battery business also increased significantly year-on-year; It is estimated that the annual net profit in 2002/kloc-0 will be 220-260 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3 13.5 1%-388.69%. In addition, the performance forecast released by Yiwei Lithium Energy said that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 20021year is estimated to be 2.726 billion yuan to 3.056 billion yuan, up 65% to 85% year-on-year. Xinwangda predicts that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 20021year will be 802-962 million yuan, up 0-20% year-on-year; After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net profit was 398 million yuan to 558 million yuan, up by 52.03%-113.31%.
In the hot market environment of new energy vehicles and strong demand for power batteries, not all power battery companies have achieved pre-happiness. Funeng Technology estimates that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies for the whole year is-1/kloc-0 to-800 million yuan, with a year-on-year loss increase of 14 1.69% to 232.32%; After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net profit was-1.40 billion yuan to-1.kloc-0/billion yuan, with a year-on-year loss increase of 1.80% to 1.586438+0%.
The concept stocks related to the good market may rise across the board. Even in industries with good prosperity, the performance of each enterprise is different.
Behind the polarization: under the skyrocketing raw materials, some have been reserved in advance, and some cannot be transmitted to the downstream, which is dragged down.
For the substantial increase in performance, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. said: First, the penetration rate of 202 1 new energy vehicles and energy storage markets increased, driving the growth of battery sales; Second, the company's market development has made progress, new production capacity has been released, and production and sales have increased accordingly; The third is to strengthen cost control and reduce the proportion of expenses to income.
Zheshang Securities commented on the performance of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., saying that the performance of 202 1 slightly exceeded expectations, and it is expected to hit a new high in single quarter profit since listing in the fourth quarter of last year. Open source securities said that there were three reasons for the fourth quarter earnings exceeding expectations. First, the supply of batteries is in short supply; Second, reserve a large number of raw materials in short supply in advance to avoid the sharp price increase of raw materials such as lithium carbonate from the fourth quarter of last year, which will affect the profit rate level; Third, the profitability of energy storage business, recycling and other raw material-related businesses has improved.
For the pre-loss of performance, Poly New attributed the reason to the continuous sharp increase in the price of core raw materials in the upstream of lithium batteries, but the battery price was downstream, and the customer conduction was obviously lagging behind, resulting in the downstream sales price increase being significantly lower than the raw material price increase; Funeng Technology, Du Nan Electric Power, etc. It also said that due to the sharp and continuous increase in raw material prices and rising product costs, the annual performance was dragged down.
In addition, Funeng Technology said that the overall decline in the average market price of the power battery industry in the past few years is also one of the reasons for the performance loss. Last year, for power battery companies, the rise in raw material prices put pressure on their performance. CICC said that in the fourth quarter of 2002/kloc-0, the price of lithium carbonate, an upstream raw material, rose by 86.5% month-on-month. Due to the delay in the transmission of price increases to downstream enterprises, the profits of some enterprises are under pressure in the short term.
Judging from the power battery companies that disclose the performance forecast at present, open source securities analysis said that the control of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, the early deployment of raw materials, the execution of the purchasing end and the understanding of the product price cycle are the main reasons for the power battery companies to maintain their performance growth.
In addition to being affected by the market environment such as soaring raw materials and poor transmission of cost pressure, the enterprise's own operation is also a factor that determines whether it is profitable or not. Poly said that some of its production lines are backward and the capacity utilization rate is relatively low, resulting in higher production costs; At the same time, in order to maximize the benefits, we actively slowed down the pace of production and sales, concentrated existing resources on high-quality customers, and the overall sales scale was relatively small, resulting in higher fixed costs.
For Funeng Technology, Western Securities analysts said that insufficient capacity is the main factor restricting its performance, and Funeng Technology needs to solve the problems of insufficient high-end capacity and overcapacity at the low end.
Guotai Junan said that for relatively small-scale power battery enterprises, they can alleviate the rising pressure of raw materials by participating in upstream raw material suppliers and institutional innovation.
Raw material prices continue to rise, leading enterprises race upstream, and small and medium-sized enterprises are under pressure.
According to the data released by China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 20021year, the cumulative sales of power batteries in China reached 186.0GWh, up by 182.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate of battery sales exceeded that of automobile sales. In terms of loading capacity, in 20021year, the total loading capacity of power batteries in China was 154.5GWh, up by 142.8% year-on-year.
In the case of strong demand for batteries, the price of raw materials for power batteries continues to rise, and the industry did not expect the explosive growth of new energy vehicles. In 2022, the rising trend of raw material prices has not improved. According to the data of Shanghai Steel Union 65438+1October 28th, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate continued to rise, with an increase of more than 20% compared with the beginning of the year. The above-mentioned western securities analyst said that factors such as rising raw material prices have led to rising corporate costs. If the price of power batteries does not increase, many small and medium-sized enterprises will find it difficult to support.
In addition, due to the shortage of lithium resources, leading power battery enterprises have laid out lithium mines in overseas markets with strong financial strength, but it is difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to compete with them and is greatly affected by the shortage of lithium resources. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of China Automobile Industry Association, said that the production capacity structure is unbalanced and the shortage of raw materials is difficult to alleviate in the short term; However, with the easing of the epidemic and the steady growth of new energy vehicles, the prices of raw materials will also return to normal.
In response to the rising prices of raw materials, in the fourth quarter of last year, battery companies such as BYD, Guo Xuan Hi-Tech and Peng Hui Energy announced that they would raise their battery sales prices. In addition, expanding production capacity has become an important starting point for domestic electric trams.
According to the information previously disclosed by various power battery companies, by the end of February 2002165438+,the total planned production capacity of domestic power battery companies TOP 10 had exceeded 2.77TWh. Since 20021,Contemporary Ampu Technology Co., Ltd., BYD, AVIC Lithium Battery, Guo Xuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and KLOC-0/have been engaged in power battery production.
However, although all enterprises are accelerating the expansion of production, it will take two to three years from the establishment of the factory to the commissioning, and the pressure on production capacity will remain obvious in the next few years.
In Chen Shihua's view, the current supply of raw materials is tight, and the price increase is a short-term situation; From the supply side, if the global epidemic situation is alleviated, the cost of the supply side will be reduced; From the demand side, the new energy vehicle market will not keep doubling every year in the future, and the growth will tend to be flat. Therefore, the industry believes that the expansion of the power battery industry needs to be alert to the phenomenon of low capacity utilization and overheated investment.