There are many factors about rising house prices, but nothing more than the following:
First, monetary policy is to decide whether house prices will rise. It depends on the growth rate of M2 in economics. That is, representing the value of actual and potential purchases. Nobody wants to be a financial economist, so the method is simple. Originally, China's economy has developed rapidly in recent years, and people have saved too much money, but their consumption has not increased much. In this way, the money in their hands has great purchasing potential, which gives the opportunity for house prices to rise. At present, the domestic GDP growth rate is around 7.5%. In the absence of investment channels, money needs to flow to a reservoir. Many local governments use the real estate market to stimulate domestic demand in the housing market with the help of urbanization, so as to avoid a large amount of funds flowing to the general consumer market and form hyperinflation.
However, now house prices have risen to a certain extent. It can be said that house prices have driven the domestic M2 value to rise higher than the international level. M 1 was too low and M2 was too high. High housing prices have caused ordinary citizens to basically hand over their money to developers, and their savings are gone. And they are carrying a mortgage to meet other consumption money, a little nervous. This shows that the housing price bubble is too big. If it is not controlled, house prices will rise again, and it will be difficult to guarantee people's basic living money, so 10.
At present, the central government's measures to maintain the real estate market are constantly failing, so according to this reality, housing prices will run smoothly and healthily in the future, especially in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, which will not be ups and downs, and will definitely strictly control one of the most important places.
Second, look at housing prices from the perspective of supply and demand. People who often read Chen Ge's articles know that Chen Ge will definitely say so. Yes, the way to emphasize that the relationship between supply and demand directly determines the market pricing, which is inevitable. In other words, it is defined according to the number of buildings and buyers in the housing market. This doesn't need to be investigated by everyone, just analyze it according to the performance characteristics you see:
1, local economy. This difference is very big, so the prices of surrounding counties and cities are also very different. We can look at the local economic situation in the past two years, and see if there are many new factories, especially several factories with a large amount of labor. There are also development zones. For example, in some places, the prosperous development zones and crowded commercial streets mean a large floating population and great potential purchasing power. Enterprises and people in many places are moving here, and housing prices and land prices in urban areas will go up. Also, the grade of real estate also reflects the economic energy. For example, in some places, there are many luxury residential areas, many high-grade real estates, which sell quickly and the traffic is often blocked, which is also a representative factor in this regard.
2. Population. Some city representatives explained that although the industry is underdeveloped and the population base is large, the rural population has increased significantly. Although the real estate supply is sufficient, house prices and land prices are still rising. The characteristics of this city are mainly reflected in the shortage of housing and rental housing, which is also a representative factor in this regard. More representative is the number of high school graduates, because high school students generally represent local employment and housing after five years.
3. Land transaction volume and land price. For underdeveloped areas, house prices are directly related to land prices, that is, house prices are calculated in proportion to land prices. Under normal circumstances, if the land price is not raised, the property price will remain relatively stable.
4. Equivalence of property quantity and purchasing power. In other words, the proportion of real estate purchases is not fast. If it can't be sold, it will take a long time. In order to repay the loan and revitalize the funds, developers may sell at a reduced price. But if you buy enough, this expectation does not exist.
Third, from the perspective of the rental market, whether the house price has declined. In many western countries, the rent-to-price ratio of houses is regarded as an important indicator of the rise or fall of house prices. If the rent continues to rise, it means that renting houses and commercial houses are not enough. Tenants become potential demand and will become buyers. If the housing rent continues to decline, the representative of the floating population is small and the economy is weak, tenants can only be tenants. If the rental market in your city has been declining recently, these effects will soon be transmitted to the house price. In the case of continuous decline in rents, the demand for housing will be diluted to the maximum extent, and house prices will rise instead of falling.
The above is Chen Ge's explanation of whether house prices have fallen. Welcome everyone to keep declining in Baidu client, read your comments, and welcome to click "Write Comments" at the bottom of the phone to express your opinions and suggestions. Chen Ge will certainly give you a reasonable explanation. Thank you for your enthusiasm, don't spit it out!