China's property market continued to be regulated, and China's house prices fell by 20 1 1. However, after the beginning of this year, the property market in various parts of China was booming, and buyers have been worried that China's housing prices will stop falling and rebound. Will housing prices rise or fall in China? A few days ago, there were n irrefutable reasons why China house prices could not fall:
First of all, the urbanization process has pushed up housing prices.
The urbanization level of China is only over 40%, while the average level of developed countries is over 70%. There is still a big gap between China and this level, that is to say, there are still a large number of farmers entering the city. These farmers need housing, and the housing demand space is huge. China is in the process of economic adjustment and growth, and the urbanization process is accelerating. The acceleration of urbanization is bound to be accompanied by a large number of non-urban population pouring into cities.
Second, the city of China is in a period of rapid development of demolition and construction.
Today's city, the urban area was still very small a few years ago, and it has doubled in size after three to five years. Take Guangzhou as an example. A few years ago, the urban area was only 1000 square kilometers, but today it has expanded to more than 3800 square kilometers. The rapid expansion of cities will inevitably lead to large-scale demolition and construction. After the expansion, a large number of people need to match their lives and jobs. In addition, large-scale demolition construction has also led to a large number of demolition needs, and all of them are large houses for small houses, and high-grade houses for ordinary houses. A city cannot become an empty city after expansion. Facts have proved that wherever the city expands, the population will be filled.
Third, economic development is inseparable from real estate, and the status of pillar industries remains unshakable.
A few years ago, big cities regarded real estate as a pillar industry. Now the economic development of big cities is on the right track. Although the status of real estate as a pillar industry is not obvious, it still plays a decisive role. In second-,third-and fourth-tier cities, real estate is still a well-deserved pillar industry, which is also the fundamental reason why the central government regulates and controls, but local governments do not cooperate. For the second, third and fourth tier cities, especially the third and fourth tier cities, the industry is weak and the hematopoietic function of the cities is insufficient. Only real estate can drive economic development. The development of real estate is the leader of urban direction.
Fourth, real estate has become the main source of income for local finance.
It is an indisputable fact that real estate has become the main source of local government revenue. We don't say that real estate will stimulate the local economy, but that the land supply needed for real estate development is the support point of local finance. If there is a lack of land revenue, local governments will be short of money, reduce fiscal revenue and affect the administrative power and authority of local governments. Therefore, no matter how the central government regulates it, local governments have their own abacus. If they can't publicly support real estate, they will support it secretly. This is also an important factor for central regulation to become "air conditioning".
Fifth, the surge in luxury consumption has led to soaring housing prices.
Some time ago, it was rumored that China's richest people spent a lot of money in the United States, "I have nothing but money", just like Chen, a farmer who washed his feet in a nightclub and got rich overnight. China has just become rich. Due to long-term poverty and backwardness, coupled with a weak cultural foundation, once they have a few small money in their hands, their "small peasant consciousness" will rise, which is one of them. Secondly, because many people in China have money, they live a good life, and their lifestyles have undergone a qualitative change, from having ample food and clothing to enjoying life. At present, China people's enjoyment consciousness is increasing day by day. Spacious and luxurious housing is one of the most important elements to enjoy life, so many people start to change rooms. The larger the area, the higher the grade.
Sixth, pay attention to controlling the excessive rise in housing prices, not suppressing them.
Why should the state regulate real estate? Because of the rapid development of real estate, it occupies the "overtaking lane" for a long time, which seriously affects the passage of other vehicles; Because house prices have risen so fast that they are almost upside down, which is not conducive to improving people's livelihood. The purpose of the central government's regulation is clear, but no one understands it. Note that the central government's regulation of real estate is to control the excessive rise of real estate prices, or to "control too fast" and control profiteering. The real intention is not to let the real estate price rise too fast, but it can rise reasonably. It is to control the reasonable rise of real estate prices together, not to suppress real estate. The central government's influence and pulling effect on the real estate economy is very clear, and it is impossible to suppress real estate. In this sense, real estate will continue to make great strides, and expecting house prices to fall within five years is tantamount to dreaming. Of course, house prices fluctuate, and will rise soon after a short-term downward adjustment, and the main line will rise.
7. Inflation expectations have increased, pushing up house prices.
Cpi rose, and agricultural product prices hit record highs. From an economic point of view, the food price index will be directly reflected in housing prices. Look at how fast oil prices have risen in recent years, snowballing. The rise of the price index will inevitably lead to the rise of house prices, even the prices of cabbage and radish are rising, and there is no reason why house prices should not rise. It is impossible for other prices to go up and let the house price fall alone. To control housing prices, we must first stabilize cpi, otherwise controlling housing prices is just wishful thinking.
Eight, land prices soared, pushing up housing prices.
Everyone only saw soaring house prices. In fact, land prices are rising faster than house prices. It is reported that the land bought ten years ago has not been developed, and the land price alone has turned hundreds of times, making money more easily than development. Land prices are getting higher year by year, like the Monkey King's somersault. Land price accounts for a small part of the cost of real estate development. Land prices have gone up, and house prices will definitely go up. If the government auctions land, it will only accelerate the rise of land prices and artificially raise land prices. Unless the state changes the form of land transfer and circulation, this way will only push the land price to a high point. The fact that the floor price of land was higher than the house price in previous years fully explained the problem, and it was abnormal that flour was more expensive than bread. Some central enterprises are involved in real estate development, because central enterprises have a government background and are not short of money, which leads to frequent land kings, which have become the driving force for rising housing prices.
Nine, the house is the best investment to preserve and increase value.
A house is no longer just for living, but also an ideal investment. Driven by factors such as low bank interest, high stock market risk and unstable gold market, the house has become the most valuable investment for the people. Since the birth of commercial housing, it can be said that its price quotation has been leaping forward, but it only appreciates and does not depreciate. Even if there is a period of price reduction, it is only short-lived, which is a natural shock of the market, not caused by the depreciation of the house itself.
10. The traditional conservative concept of "having a house is the only way to have a home" is catching up with the rise in housing prices.
Influenced by thousands of years of traditional feudal thoughts, China people always think that "there is a home only if there is a house", and no house is like wandering, like duckweed without roots. This kind of thought is deeply rooted and has been influencing and acting on China people. Influenced by this old concept, China people struggled for housing as adults, and a large number of house slaves appeared. After working as an adult for several years, everyone wants to buy a house and try their best to make money and save money in order to buy a house of their own. It is conceivable that every adult wants to buy a house, and some unmarried women also want to buy a house. Both of them bought houses before they got married, and they will have two suites after they get married. Of course, this is a small number. According to this phenomenon, there is no reason for China's housing prices not to rise, because there is strong demand.
Eleven, homeowners support the rise in housing prices.
Although in traditional media and online media, the loudest voice is still some people who want to buy a house. All day long, people are shouting that housing prices are too high, so that the media can follow suit, thus affecting the government. Therefore, the government came out to intervene administratively.
However, another group can not be ignored, although the voice is not big, but the role is not small, this group is the owner who has bought a house. This group of buyers don't want house prices to fall, but expect house prices to rise, because if house prices fall, their houses will depreciate, and if house prices rise, their houses will appreciate. People who own houses are obviously more powerful than those who don't, and they have control to some extent, both economically and socially. At least rich people, civil servants and non-civil servants working in government agencies basically have their own houses, and these people have certain "control" ability. They will use their "ability" to stop the house price from falling.