The most important thing for a CEO to do well is to look for the future that has happened and turn it into an opportunity.
Zhang Yong, Chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group, once said that in the era of digital economy, all business elements of enterprise operation are likely to move towards full-field and full-process digital operation.
Recently, the first module of the second phase project of Tsinghua-Ali New Business School jointly built by Tsinghua University Institute of Economics and Management and Alibaba Group landed in Hangzhou.
How will the global political and economic structure evolve in the future 1 year?
The post-epidemic world is facing a critical moment of digital transformation. How does digitalization subvert the underlying logic of business? Where is the new way out for business transformation and upgrading?
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The "Editor" of this article provides technical support.
(in alphabetical order of surnames)
Johnny Chen
Secretary-General Luo Hantang, Executive Education Director of Lakeside University
tall
Vice President of Alibaba Group and Dean of Ali Research Institute
Mahon
Deputy Director, Associate Professor Department, Tsinghua University Institute of Economics and Management.
Yang Zhishu
Professor of Finance Department of Tsinghua University Institute of Economics and Management, distinguished professor, "Changjiang Scholar" of the Ministry of Education.
Global economic and trade pattern and China's financial market
1, how will the global political and economic structure evolve in 2020?
Since World War II, the world has been in a relatively stable cooperative environment of global trade for a long time, but the basis of trade is political stability.
At present, the five forces stirring the world are coronavirus pneumonia-19, political order reconstruction, technology, globalization reconstruction and inequality.
The epidemic has had a great impact on the global political and economic structure. Since June this year 165438+ 10, the number of daily confirmed cases in the world is still increasing. According to the pace of vaccine development and mass production, it is estimated that at least one vaccine will start mass production by the end of the year, and 5-7 vaccines will be successfully developed in 20021year under optimistic circumstances.
Driven by globalization, the centers of the world economy are gathering in Asia. According to the forecast of IMF and World Bank, it is predicted that within five years, the seats of Asian countries in the world's largest economy will increase by two seats (India and Indonesia), while the seats in the top ten European economies will decrease by two seats.
In the past 70 years, globalization has brought great benefits growth, and capital has allocated the most suitable land, resources, environment and labor on a global scale. /kloc-before 0/980, globalization was mainly the exchange of needed goods between developed capitalist countries.
After 1980' s, technological progress realized the fine division and coordination of production processes in complex cross-border supply chains. Capital is arbitrage in the form of multinational corporations around the world, 80% of the global trade is related to multinational corporations, and half of China's exports are completed by foreign-funded enterprises. Low-income countries with production capacity and mobilization ability enter the international market, and promote a large number of high-quality and cheap labor to enter the global labor market to participate in competition.
(1) With global monetary easing to deal with the epidemic and domestic consumption demand still lagging behind GDP growth, the overall monetary policy will remain relatively loose to support economic recovery.
(2) As the proportion of China's overall debt to GDP has soared, the central bank's monetary policy will be more cautious and selective, especially strictly controlling the entry of funds into the property market and the stock market, and strengthening the service quality and efficiency of funds to the real economy.
(3) Monetary policy strengthens structural objectives, and the central bank proposes to adhere to the strategic direction of structural adjustment and firmly grasp the strategic basis for expanding domestic demand. At the same time, "ensure that all-inclusive micro-credit loans should be issued", "ensure that the focus of new financing is tilted towards manufacturing and small and medium-sized enterprises" and "effectively increase the proportion of all-inclusive micro-credit loans".
(4) Under the dual-cycle strategic thinking, on the one hand, China will accelerate the development and construction of the capital market, on the other hand, it will accelerate the opening of the capital market and financial industry.
3. What kind of living environment will entrepreneurs face in the next few years?
China's economy has been facing rapid growth for decades. With the increase of GDP per capita income, the growth rate will definitely decrease. China's GDP dropped from 10% to 6%.
In the past three decades, the average revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies was 16.2%, while the nominal GDP growth rate was 15%. No matter how fast it grew in the early days, countries with a per capita GDP of more than 10,000 US dollars have a growth rate of less than 5% without exception. When the economic growth slows down, the growth of enterprises will definitely be slower, which is the challenge that enterprises are facing at present.
In this context, technology-driven upgrading is an important direction of a country, and digitalization is the core of technology upgrading. Digitalization is the core of government work reports in more than 20 provinces in China. Consumption-driven industrial upgrading, the acceleration of digitalization and the persistence of urbanization are the situations we are facing.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" mentioned the double cycle. Some time ago, the external circulation had great uncertainty, so it was driven by the internal circulation. The challenge in the next few years is how to improve the allocation of production factors and promote industrial upgrading by stimulating consumption and urbanization. What the external circulation can do is to open the capital market and attract foreign investment.
The importance of cities has not declined in the internet age, but has increased. Consumption based on the upgrading of metropolitan area is an important direction.
The other direction is the silver-haired economy. In a few years, the elderly population in China will exceed 200 million, and the aging rate will exceed 14%. The key is that these people have spending power, which will promote the development of many industries such as medical treatment, health care, health preservation and tourism.
Digital transformation of strategy and management
4. Digitalization is the immunity against epidemic period and the productivity after epidemic period.
Since the epidemic, digitalization has changed from the concept of "number one pusher" to the necessity of enterprise survival.
Under the epidemic situation, all kinds of commercial enterprises use digitalization to ensure their opening and reshape their business models through four digital dimensions.
The log cabin barbecue adopts the membership management system, providing take-out service with a radius of three kilometers, with the take-out increase of 10 times, and the 28-day performance fully recovered to107% of the same period last year; Red Dragonfly built an intelligent organization with nails, and sold it through live broadcast and new retail outlets. In about two months, 8,563 employees conducted 3,338 live broadcasts, and the sales of live broadcasts alone reached 53 million yuan.
5. Why does digitalization subvert the underlying logic of business?
The previous production logic was large-scale production, and the biggest concept of digitalization is to change this logical order.
It turned out that the manufacturer pushed the goods to the dealer and the dealer pushed them to the consumer, so the manufacturer could not know the consumer's demand, so he had to find a consulting company to make an investigation and then decide whether to produce the order. The intermediate process will put the inventory on the dealer, and there is a game of interests.
The core logic of digital transformation is consumer-centric, because you have to catch a lot of data and labels on the C side, from product-centric to data+algorithm-driven real-time customer operation. Change the upstream, retail, wholesale manufacturing, product design and the entire value chain.
Now more and more brands go to Tmall to open stores, bypassing channels and reaching consumers directly, so that brands can obtain category data, consumption data and evaluation data.
6. Double Eleven is the biggest marketing activity, not the biggest promotion activity.
The key to the digital transformation of enterprises is to take consumers as the center and reconstruct the value chain. From 2B to 2C, from selling goods to managing consumers.
Double Eleven is the biggest market activity in the world, not sales. The orientation of sales is the result, but the market should also catch up with the loss. After Racine, you can get a complete set of commercial operating systems and resources from Ali. 200-300 yuan is new, and it will certainly be able to cash in after the scale is expanded.
On the day of Shuang 1 1, Yiju recruited 830,000 new customers with red envelopes. After half a year, it continued to contact these people and pushed them into sales.
Technological change drives business growth. The key to digital transformation of enterprises is the reconstruction of value chain, consumption, marketing and channels; Retail, brand and design; Production, trading, payment and logistics are constantly being reorganized.
How does digital technology empower consumption drive?
7. What changes are taking place in consumer demand?
Today, the opportunities and challenges facing business are the rise of consumers, from product-centered to consumer-centered.
We have entered a world dominated by non-essential consumption. We used to make a product, let it go and see how it went. Now we pay more attention to so-called communication. Everything is being changed from planting grass, interacting and iterating.
Product-oriented means function-oriented, price appeal, cost performance, product function, durability and retail service. Consumer-centered, it is function+service experience-oriented. Such as today's box horse.
1. Consumers' loyalty to brands is getting worse and worse. 8% think brand name is very important, and 92% think product quality is the most important.
2. Consumers' expectations for service are getting higher and higher, and 96% hope to get a service response within 24 hours; 85% of the services they want are personalized.
It is more and more difficult to grasp the needs of consumers. The average new product cycle in FMCG industry is one week, and the average new product success rate in FMCG industry is only 10%.
The actual savings of urban residents are higher than those of rural residents, and urbanization does not necessarily accelerate the consumption-driven transformation; Middle-aged and elderly people have become the most active increment of online consumption; The rise of short stories: upgrading from high-demand categories to non-necessities.
We have entered a world dominated by non-essential consumption. We used to make a product, let it go and see how it went. Now we pay more attention to so-called communication. Everything is being changed from planting grass, interacting and iterating.
For enterprises, if they can't tap the potential of sinking market, they must tap the potential of middle-income groups. The so-called "middle class" means that after meeting the basic needs of life, they like something with taste and sentiment. Willing to pay for better products, including cultural products. If we can expand the middle-income group, it is also a way to improve consumption power or expand the market. "
8. Why did e-commerce live broadcast become the outlet of this year?
It turns out that Taobao and Tmall can directly get through consumers and products. Why do they need live broadcast?
First of all, live broadcast solves some trust problems. On the Tmall Taobao platform, the order rate increased by 66% after increasing the self-broadcasting of merchants.
Second, with the increase of non-essential consumer goods, why should consumers spend money on things that might not be needed?
You should naturally convince the consumer and stimulate his shopping impulse. Emotional persuasion is also needed, which may be a trustworthy recommendation of online celebrities. Consumers love my house and my dog, which is an emotional connection. This will only happen on non-essential items. If there is only one bowl of rice every day and you are hungry if you don't eat it, where will you need live broadcast?
Third, the marginal effect of live broadcast is better for small sellers with asymmetric information, because others don't know and need to know.
Consumers' decision-making and trust mechanism are being influenced by live broadcast, content and social interaction. The connection between consumers and producers has changed: traffic is e-commerce and traffic is fragmented. Digitalization also affects consumers' decision-making, online discovery, offline experience, community discussion, decision to place an order, and finally share their purchasing experience. These changes have prompted brands to directly face consumer operations.
9. Digital technology empowers the consumer-driven future, which is to realize the overall reconstruction from design, production, products and marketing brands.
In the era of digital economy, technology is the main driving factor of digital economy.
20 19 added value of digital industrialization (providing technology and solutions for the development of digital economy, etc. ) is 7. 1 trillion yuan, while the digital added value of industry is 28.8 trillion yuan, of which the penetration rates of service industry, industry and agriculture are 37.8%, 19.5% and 8.2% respectively.
Judging from the development of market share of listed companies, the market share of modern service industries and high-tech industries such as consumption, medical care and information technology has increased significantly. The development of direct financing makes it easier for technological innovation enterprises to obtain financial support for increasing R&D investment and improving innovation ability, thus further promoting the upgrading of enterprise structure.
The operating system of new business has 1 1 elements: brand, commodity, sales, marketing, channel, manufacturing, service, finance, logistics, supply chain, organization, information technology and IT. The future of digital technology empowering consumption is to realize the overall reconstruction of the whole chain.
Under the background that the epidemic situation has accelerated the digitalization of the global economy and intensified the competition in science and technology, hierarchical consumption upgrading and digital transformation are mutually driven, which will be an opportunity for China's new round of economic development after the global dividend period has subsided.
Conclusion:
Zhang Yong mentioned in Lakeside University 20 19 that the No.1 position will definitely make many imperfect decisions, and the characteristics that No.1 position needs are decision-making and responsibility, because it has to face a high degree of uncertainty. The scarcest resource in the era of digital economy is the most primitive idea. Encouraging and stimulating people's creativity is the core of digital intelligent organization.