Beginning on the 22nd, the property market ushered in a new round of intensive regulation. Within two days, eight provincial capital cities, including Xi, Chongqing, Nanchang, Nanning, Changsha, Guiyang, Shijiazhuang and Wuhan, intensively introduced property market control measures, and six of them implemented sales restrictions.
Combing local policies, Shijiazhuang clearly restricts sales while restricting purchases, and requires that newly purchased housing (including new commercial housing and second-hand housing) should not be listed and traded within 5 years; Newly purchased commercial housing and second-hand housing in the main city of Chongqing can only be listed and traded after obtaining the certificate of immovable property for 2 years; Guiyang stipulates that the purchase of new commercial housing in the local area shall not be transferred within 3 years; In order to restrict sales and upgrade, Nanning will purchase two or more houses in the urban area (excluding Wuming District) for two years. At the same time, Nanchang requires all newly traded houses in the city to obtain property certificates for 2 years before they can be transferred. In addition to restricting the purchase and upgrading, Changsha stipulates that commercial houses (including second-hand houses) purchased locally can not be sold again until three years after obtaining the property right certificate.
Different from the above six cities, Xi 'an New Government does not involve sales restriction, but controls housing prices through the declaration of commercial housing prices, while Wuhan regulates the sales behavior of developers.
In fact, since June 5438+ 10 last year, these cities have successively introduced property market regulation measures, among which Wuhan and Nanchang have issued several "upgraded versions", and this time they have once again increased the "dose" of regulation.
So, why should these eight cities increase their regulation? According to industry insiders, this round of regulation is accurate. "Where the house price rises obviously, the regulation will point to where".
The reporter noted that most of the provincial capital cities that have been overweight this time do not belong to 15 first-tier and hot-spot second-tier cities, but cities with a new round of rising house prices and transaction volume recently. Most of these cities are net population inflows, and there is upward pressure on housing prices. It is reasonable to further tighten supervision.
In addition, the reporter's recent survey found that the inventory of these second-tier cities is continuously decreasing, which has strengthened the expectation of rising house prices in these areas to some extent. According to the data of the same policy consulting and research department, in August, the ratio of deposit to sales in second-tier cities was 6. 14 months, and the distance from 17 months was less than 8 months. Among them, Nanchang, Nanning, Guiyang and other cities have a deposit-sale ratio of less than 10 month, while Chongqing, Xi 'an and other cities have a deposit-sale ratio of less than 6 months. It is generally believed that when the ratio of deposit to sales is less than 8 months, there is upward pressure on house prices.
From the perspective of land market, the data show that the land market in these eight cities was booming in the first eight months of this year, with the land transfer fee in Chongqing exceeding 1000 billion yuan, and the land transfer fee in Wuhan, Xi, Nanchang, Shijiazhuang and Changsha exceeding 20 billion yuan. Many cities have set a new record for the same period in history.
"It sends a clear signal to the market that the regulation of the property market will not be relaxed for a long time, which will help guide market expectations." Yang Xianling, president of Chain Home Research Institute, said.
Yang Kewei, an analyst at Kerry Research Center, believes that the biggest impact of the sales restriction policy on the demand side is to change the short-term holding psychology of "rushing to buy and sell" before, and eliminate the short-term profit psychology by reducing the transaction frequency, thus curbing the speculative demand for investment, which is in line with the spirit of the central government's "housing and not speculating".
Yang Kewei predicted that in the short term, sales restriction may lead to a decline in real estate transactions. With the extension of the regulatory cycle, some local developers are more likely to reduce prices, and it is expected that more projects will accelerate their entry into the market.
Insiders believe that the effects of policies such as sales restriction, purchase restriction and loan restriction are gradually superimposed to form a three-dimensional real estate regulation and control mechanism, which can better maintain the stability of the real estate market and win time for the establishment of a long-term mechanism.
"Regulatory policies such as restricting sales will have a corresponding effect on cooling the market and guiding consumers' expectations in the short term, but in the long run, it still needs the cooperation of long-term mechanisms. "Yang Xianling believes that from the perspective of local policies, it is expected that there will be more powerful and perfect measures in the future.