Baofeng Energy, a private olefin leader, recently landed in the A-share capital market. With the help of capital, it is expected to seize more market space.
The insiders believe that coal/methanol to olefins and propane dehydrogenation have become the backbone of domestic olefin production capacity growth, and the contradiction between supply and demand in China's olefin industry is still outstanding, and the development prospects of the industry can be expected.
The demand gap in olefin market still exists.
With the progress of technical route, the pattern of olefin industry is changing.
The data shows that in 20 18, China's dependence on foreign crude oil has reached 68.4%, breaking the international warning line. The production of petroleum to olefins is restricted by the dependence on oil imports, which leads to the continuous supply gap of olefins in China. In 20 18 years, the self-sufficiency rate of polyethylene in China was only 58%.
At present, China's conventional resources are in a situation of "rich coal, less gas and poor oil", and the supply of olefin raw materials is tight, which has given birth to the rise of China's coal-to-olefin industry. Under the guidance of national industrial policy, propane dehydrogenation and coal/methanol to olefin technology are emerging, and coal to olefin, as the most mature field in new coal chemical industry, has taken the lead in commercialization.
"At present, China's oil-olefin ratio is about 65%, coal-olefin ratio is 25%, and PDH process ratio is 10%. In the future, the coal-to-olefin process will increase, the growth rate of PDH will be slow, and the proportion of oil-to-olefin process will gradually decrease. Coal/methanol to olefins and propane dehydrogenation have become the backbone of domestic olefin production capacity growth, and the proportion of new processes has gradually expanded. " Ma Yingjun, an olefin analyst at Jinlian Chuangchuang, said that the comprehensive utilization projects of ethane cracking to ethylene and light hydrocarbons were relatively concentrated in the later period, and the monopoly positions of Sinopec and PetroChina were affected, and the situation of three pillars gradually changed into a diversified competition intensification model.
However, China's demand for olefins is increasing. According to statistics, the domestic olefin gap in 20 18 was 20 million tons, an increase of about 9%. Especially, the growth of 20 18 express delivery industry reached 42.94%, and most of the packages involved were polyolefin materials.
Ma Yingjun also believes that the olefin industry in China is in a period of insufficient aggregate and structural shortage downstream, and the market demand gap still exists. In particular, the contradiction between supply and demand in ethylene industry is still outstanding, and the development prospect of the industry is good, but the competition will become increasingly fierce. The domestic ethylene industry still has the problems of high energy consumption and poor raw materials, which makes the production cost of ethylene higher. At present, the Middle East and North America are building world-class export-oriented petrochemical plants with raw material advantages. The main products are exported to the Asia-Pacific region, and China will be its most important target market, which will have a great impact on China's ethylene industry.
Seize the commanding heights of energy
Vigorously developing the olefin industry of Baofeng Energy is an effective way to make up for the domestic olefin import gap.
At present, Baofeng Energy is the largest private olefin leader in China, and its leading products are polyethylene and polypropylene. The main investment direction in the future is also polyethylene and polypropylene products. Polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) are one of the general thermoplastic synthetic resins with the largest output and consumption in the world, and are the main general plastic products.
It is worth mentioning that modern coal chemical industry is a technology-intensive industry, and advanced technology and equipment are one of the key elements of the core competitiveness of enterprises. Baofeng Energy introduced and absorbed a number of international and domestic first-class advanced coal chemical technologies during the project construction. Coal gasification adopts aerospace dry pulverized coal pressurized gasification technology, which has wide application range, high conversion rate of total carbon and simple operation.
Baofeng Energy integrates international and domestic first-class technologies, processes and equipment, and its technical level and equipment operation efficiency are first-class in the industry. Since it was officially put into production, the capacity utilization rate has remained above 100%.
At the same time, as a private olefin leader, Baofeng Energy's high gross profit margin has been concerned by the market.
"In order to ensure and maintain the gross profit margin, we must control the production cost." Relevant persons of Baofeng Energy told reporters that 1.5 tons of coal 1 ton of methanol, 3 tons of methanol 1 ton of olefins and about 5 tons of coal 1 ton of olefins. The cost of raw materials is about 2000 yuan/ton, and the cost of producing 1 ton methanol processing is about 600 yuan. In addition, the raw material cost of coal is about 2000 yuan, and the total solid cost of producing 1 ton olefin is about 5000 yuan. One is to adjust the raw coal ratio, and the other is to improve the conversion rate of raw materials and make the cost per ton lower. Then control the procurement cycle and inventory of raw materials through management means, which can further reduce the cost. The third is to control the maintenance cycle. Baofeng Energy overhauls large equipment once every three years and small equipment once every two years. At present, the average annual production days are about 340-350 days. By increasing the productivity, the production efficiency is improved and the production cost is reduced.
It is understood that in 20 19, the company has two plans: first, in fine chemical industry, it applies some fine high-end technologies to improve and extend the existing development plan of fine chemical industry, and is currently negotiating with international high-end technology companies; Second, continue to expand the olefin industry. It is understood that the overall planning of Baofeng Energy is 6.5438+million tons of methanol and 3 million tons of olefins. On the basis of the scale that has been built and will be built soon, it is planned to build 6 million tons of methanol and180,000 tons of olefins in the future.