Introduction: Pu 'er Dongri Investment Co., Ltd. was established on April 6, 20 13. Legal representative: Chu was established on 20 13-04- 16 with a registered capital of 20 million yuan. The industrial and commercial registration number is 532701100016790. Enterprise type: limited liability company (wholly owned by a legal person invested or controlled by a natural person).
Company Address: Middle Section of No.1 Road, North District, Simao District, Pu 'er City
Second, financial data was released in July, and RMB loans increased by 679 billion yuan. How to interpret it?
Loans increased by 679 billion yuan, which did not meet the expected valuation, indicating that the public's consumption power is still weak under the influence of the epidemic.
Third, how do investors understand the financial data of 1 month?
According to the financial data released by the People's Bank of China on June 5438+02, RMB loans in June reached 5,438+0.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 8 14 1 billion yuan over the same period of last year, with a growth rate of 2 1.33%. In that month, the growth rate of broad money supply (M2) continued to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 18.79%. The balance of RMB loans was 3 1.99 trillion yuan, up 2 1.33% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.6 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year. M 1 balance 16.52 trillion yuan, up 6.68% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.38 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year. /kloc-there are specific reasons for the blowout of credit growth in October: first, the blowout of credit partly reflects the sudden release of short-term liquidity that was suppressed after long-term accumulation due to the lifting of the ban on artificial credit contraction in the first half of 2008; Secondly, from the perspective of the whole loan structure, it mainly invests in bill financing and short-term loans. New loans seem to be 800 billion more than last year, of which bill financing increased by 623.9 billion, accounting for 4 1.59% of new loans. Other short-term loans decreased compared with the same period of last year, and medium-and long-term loans increased by 220 billion yuan. This means that in June 2009, the real increase in loans was only 220 billion yuan of long-term loans. What is left is only the natural result left over from daily life. The large increase of bill financing reflects the bank's psychology of "hedging" and "prudent lending", and also reflects the possibility of "short-term loan and long-term use" of enterprises. Third, after the central bank entered the interest rate cut cycle last year, the interest margin of banks has narrowed sharply, and many banks must rely on large-scale loans to stabilize the erosion of profits caused by the narrowing interest margin. In the case of narrowing interest margin, many banks have added this consideration to this year's loan plan, that is, by increasing a certain proportion of loan scale to hedge the impact of interest margin; Fourth, judging from the investment of this loan, most of the loans are invested in infrastructure projects guaranteed by the government and large-scale projects guaranteed by local governments. Surprisingly in the data, M 1 did not continue the growth of last month, and the balance was 16.52 trillion yuan, up 6.68% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.38 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year, setting a new low for more than a decade. This shows that although there are abundant funds at present, they have not entered the real economy in large quantities. It can be seen that at present, the medium and long-term loans of commercial banks are mainly concentrated in the field of government expansionary fiscal policy investment. Commercial banks are eager to compete for limited "financial projects", but they are cautious about areas other than non-government projects, indicating that financial institutions' reluctance to lend has not been alleviated. A large number of small and medium-sized enterprises still need credit support urgently, and the credit structure and capital flow need to be adjusted urgently. From the micro level, what really supports economic growth is long-term loans. However, medium and long-term loans are still less than the same period last year, the effect of monetary policy has not been fully released, and the credit easing policy needs to be expanded. From the historical data, the growth rate of M2 is highly consistent with the year-on-year growth rate of loan balance, which has a certain leading role in the one-year loan interest rate. The rapid release of credit has squeezed the space for the central bank to continue to cut interest rates in the short term. With the further manifestation of the effect of expansionary policies and the drawing to a close of inventory adjustment, the economic vitality shows signs of gradual recovery. Therefore, the future credit growth is likely to continue, although there may be some fluctuations from month to month, which will make the real economy and capital market more abundant. It is expected that the growth rate of money supply will remain high in the first half of the year, maintaining the pattern of high before and low after. The strength of A shares will continue for some time. (The writer is a postdoctoral fellow at the Institute of Finance of the Ministry of Finance and a macro analyst at CITIC Securities. )
4. What economic data have a greater impact on the market?
The biggest influence is the monetary policy as a hot spot in the market and the employment data of the United States on the first Friday of each month.