In fact, listed companies are only the epitome of China's economic resilience. Since the beginning of this year, the "six stable" measures have been fully exerted, and the main economic indicators of China's economic operation have always remained in a reasonable range, and some indicators have performed well. From these indicators, we can see that China's economy is very resistant to internal and external shocks.
Some economic indicators exceeded expectations.
In the first quarter, China's gross domestic product (GDP) was about 2 1.3 trillion yuan, exceeding the total GDP in 2005. Calculated at comparable prices, it increased by 6.4% over the same period of last year, exceeding market expectations. At the same time, industrial and consumption data in the first quarter were better than expected.
Liu, a researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategy of Renmin University of China, believes that this shows that as the effects of various countercyclical macroeconomic policies begin to appear, the economy has stabilized more than expected. Although it still faces structural pressure, the economy will further stabilize in the second and third quarters.
Recently, some economic data for April were released. The manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the non-manufacturing PMI was in the higher expansion range for four consecutive months. As a leading indicator to observe the economy, the continuous expansion of PMI shows that the economy is running well.
For example, the CPI increase in April was basically in line with or even slightly lower than expected. The analysis reports of most market institutions point out that the high inflation expectation will ease, and there is little probability that the CPI will increase by more than 3% during the year, which will not constrain monetary policy. From the point of view of foreign trade, considering the fading of the early export-grabbing factors, the export growth rate dropped in April in line with expectations, but the import repair speed exceeded market expectations.
Su Jian, director of Peking University National Economic Research Center, told reporters that the data showed that domestic demand stabilized in the short term, and the import growth rate rebounded rapidly, thanks to the continuous efforts of countercyclical control policies.
In the enterprise field, central enterprises and listed companies have also made a better-than-expected start. Central enterprises are the pillars of the national economy. In the first quarter, central enterprises realized sales revenue of 6.8 trillion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, and realized profits of 426.5 billion yuan, up 13. 1% year-on-year.
Zhou, a researcher at the Research Center of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, believes that the profits of central enterprises have maintained high growth, largely due to the promotion of comprehensive reform work. State-owned enterprises vigorously revitalize the stock, increase the increment, focus on the industry and highlight the main business, and the construction of risk management system has also been strengthened.
In terms of listed companies, 60% of the companies achieved positive profit growth in the first quarter of this year. Among them, animal husbandry, infrastructure industry, 5G industrial chain, securities industry and other related companies have outstanding performance. From the comprehensive analysis, the improvement of listed companies' performance is mainly driven by the improvement of industry prosperity.
For small and medium-sized enterprises, the production index published by the National Bureau of Statistics in April was 5 1.2%, which has been in the expansion range for two consecutive months. In April, the difference between the purchase price index and the ex-factory price index narrowed for two consecutive months. Dong Yaxiu, director of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that this shows that the profit rate of enterprises in related industries has improved. The effects of policies and measures to reduce taxes and fees and support the healthy development of small and micro enterprises have gradually emerged, and the production and operation of small enterprises have improved.
The effect of proactive fiscal policy exceeded expectations.
The combination of tax reduction and fee reduction and infrastructure construction is the focus of this year's fiscal policy. Liu believes that since the beginning of this year, the countercyclical adjustment of the proactive fiscal policy has been significantly increased, such as the further acceleration of fiscal expenditure, which is the highest level in recent years.
The data shows that public expenditure in the first quarter increased by 15% year-on-year, 6.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate of last year. The fiscal deficit in the first quarter reached 497.3 billion yuan, a relatively high level in the same period of the previous year; At the same time, in the first quarter, the national government fund expenditure increased by 55.9% year-on-year, and the government fund deficit was 458,654.38 billion yuan; The two deficits totaled 955.4 billion yuan, close to the scale of one trillion yuan. In April, the general public budget expenditure increased by 0.5 percentage points over the previous month.
What is more worth mentioning is that the focus of fiscal expenditure in the first four months mainly covers the important areas of supply-side structural reform, which has the characteristics of "infrastructure first, science and technology keep up". According to the data in April, infrastructure expenditure dropped structurally, urban and rural community expenditure, agriculture, forestry and water expenditure continued to grow at a high speed, and the growth rate of transportation expenditure dropped. At the same time, science and technology expenditure began to exert its strength. In April, fiscal expenditure on science and technology increased by 78% year-on-year.
The investment of financial expenditure has promoted the investment enthusiasm of related industries. The data shows that the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries increased by 1 1.4% and 19.3% respectively in the first quarter. The investment in technological transformation of manufacturing industry increased by 16.9%, which was faster than the total investment 10.6 percentage points; The added value of industrial strategic emerging industries increased by 6.7% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than that of industries above designated size.
The progress of local debt issuance is also much faster than last year. By the end of April, 654.38+063.33 billion yuan of local government bonds had been issued, including 654.38+029.40 billion yuan of new local government bonds, accounting for 93% of the new debt limit issued in advance and 42% of the annual debt limit. The Ministry of Finance recently issued a notice, requiring all localities to complete the issuance of new bond quotas ahead of schedule before the end of June, and strive to complete the issuance of new bonds throughout the year before the end of September. It is reported that these funds will be mainly used for the construction of projects under construction and to fill shortcomings, which will play a positive role in stabilizing investment and promoting consumption.
Liu predicted that the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to pick up gradually in the second and third quarters of this year, and the annual growth rate is expected to pick up to around 6%.
In addition, the role of tax reduction and fee reduction in stimulating production and consumption is also accumulating. This year's "Government Work Report" proposes to reduce the burden of corporate tax and social security contributions by nearly 2 trillion yuan, and further promote structural tax reduction.
On May 10, leaders of Hisense Group, Sany Heavy Industry, TBEA, China Construction No.1 Bureau, ZTO Express, SF Holdings, China Railway Construction, Jianghuai Automobile and other enterprises spoke in combination with their own tax and fee changes. It is generally believed that this year's national tax reduction and fee reduction exceeded expectations, which is the most direct, effective and fair measure to benefit enterprises. The burden on enterprises has been significantly reduced, which has led to increased investment, R&D investment and employment expansion.
Su Jian believes that the most important thing for China at present is to do its own thing. To cultivate the domestic market, we must expand consumer demand, on the premise of income growth. The introduction of various special tax deduction policies for individuals is equivalent to indirectly increasing the personal income of low-and middle-income groups and promoting the expansion of consumer demand.
According to the data released by the Ministry of Finance, from June 5438 to April, the national accumulated general public budget revenue was 726,565,438+billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points lower than the growth rate in the first quarter. Among them, personal income tax decreased by 30.9% year-on-year due to the tax reduction policy. The employment situation is stable this year, and the income of residents is growing steadily, which is also conducive to boosting consumer confidence.
Liu said that a series of reform measures to reduce taxes and fees not only have the goal orientation of long-term economic restructuring, but also can effectively stimulate total demand in the short term. The data shows that the consumption data of this year's "May 1" holiday reflects the promotion of tax reduction and fee reduction on consumption from one side. This year's "May 1" holiday, the total number of domestic tourist receptions nationwide was 65.438+95 million, an increase of 654.38+0.3% according to comparable caliber; The tourism revenue was11767 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16. 1%.
Market participants' confidence has been repaired faster than expected.
The data of new loans and social financing in the first quarter of 20 19 were obviously better than market expectations, and the loose monetary environment led to the recovery of market participants' confidence and expectations.
Zhang Wenhong, deputy director of the Department of Investigation and Statistics of the Central Bank, pointed out that the current financing situation of the real economy has been significantly improved compared with 20 18. From June to April this year, the scale of social financing increased by 9.54 trillion yuan, 1.93 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of April, the growth rate of social financing scale was 0.6 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year. On the whole, the current social financing scale is growing reasonably, and the growth rate basically matches the nominal GDP growth rate.
In addition to the growth rate of social financing scale, we can also see from the loan structure that the confidence of market participants has exceeded expectations. According to data released by the central bank, new medium-and long-term loans accounted for 68.6% in April, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous three months.
According to Zhang Wenhong, from the actual investment of medium and long-term loans in the first quarter, the growth rate of medium and long-term loans in industries, infrastructure industries, manufacturing industries (especially high-tech manufacturing industries) and service industries except the real estate industry rebounded, the growth rate of medium and long-term loans in the real estate industry slowed down, and financial support for corporate credit increased.
In terms of capital demand, Sun Guofeng, director of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Department, revealed that from the perspective of the central bank's understanding, credit demand is still relatively strong. On the whole, the counter-cyclical adjustment of prudent monetary policy has achieved very positive results, the risk of credit contraction has been significantly alleviated, market confidence has been boosted, and social expectations have been reversed.
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics also confirms the continuous optimism of enterprises on market development. The data shows that the expected index of business activities in the service industry was 60% in April, which has been in a high boom zone for three consecutive months. This shows that China has made efforts to strengthen the rule of law, effectively improve the business environment, deepen the structural reform of the financial supply side, and continuously increase the opening up, which has effectively boosted the confidence of market participants.