It is worth noting that bringing the non-ground wave (NTN) technology used in LEO satellite communication into the category of 5G is the goal of the global communication standard-setting organization 3GPP. In September, 20021,3GPP announced that it would freeze the release of the 5G technical standard R 17 in 2022, which will introduce non-ground wave technology as a part of the 5G standard for the first time. It is generally believed in the industry that this will be an important milestone in the mobile and satellite communication industries.
TrendForce research report predicts that by 2022, the global satellite market output value is expected to reach 295 billion US dollars, with an annual growth rate of 3.3%. Especially in China, driven by the demand of Internet of Things and the limited rail resources. It is estimated that the total output value of satellite Internet in China may reach 933.77 billion US dollars in 2035.
Standard Priority and 5G Complementary Integration
Satellite Internet has been put forward for a long time. As early as the end of 1980s, Motorola put forward the Iridium project, but in the case of imperfect ground network, the project was aborted because of the high implementation cost. It was not until the evolution of 5G network in recent years that the advantages of satellite communication reappeared and attracted attention.
Dr. Chen, deputy general manager of China Shinco Group, said in an interview that the positioning of LEO satellite communication should be differentiated and complementary to 5G. In the 6G era, land mobile communication and LEO satellite communication will be organically integrated, including architecture integration, air interface integration and terminal integration.
More importantly, for the current 5G network, it is a more urgent task to support the connection of Internet of Things applications in various vertical industries. The latest report released by internet society of china in July this year shows that by 2025, the number of mobile Internet of Things connections in China will be as high as 80 1 100 million, with a compound annual growth rate of14.1%; It is estimated that there will be 30.9 billion IOT devices connected to the Internet.
TF Securities research report pointed out that LEO satellite Internet will become one of the key trends in the electronics industry in 2022. It is expected that, driven by relevant enterprises, the shipments of LEO satellite services and related parts will increase substantially in 2022, and LEO satellite service providers will benefit first.
Enterprise pathfinder satellite launch entered an active period.
Similar to the rising path of any industry, the pioneering exploration of enterprises has also become an important feature and trend for China LEO satellite market to seek a breakthrough.
According to the dismantling information of supply chain, the ecological chain of satellite industry includes four fields: satellite manufacturing, satellite launch, satellite ground station and satellite service. At present, satellite manufacturing and launching are the main industries. At home, China Aerospace Science and Technology and China Aerospace Science and Technology are the two giants leading this link.
According to public information, China Aerospace Science and Technology and China Aerospace Science and Technology announced their own LEO satellite projects-"Hongyan" and "Hongyun" on 20 15 of the same year when the Star Chain Project was born. They plan to launch 300 LEO communication satellites and 156 LEO communication satellites respectively, which will be completed in 2023, and the first batch of experimental satellites of two systems will be in 2023.
It is worth noting that before the completion of the "Hongyan" and "Hongyun" projects, China also deployed the first LEO satellite Internet of Things system project "Apocalypse Constellation" on 20 18. According to official information, this system consists of 38 low-orbit satellites, and 15 satellites have been successfully launched, and it is planned to be deployed in 2022. By then, more than 70% of the blind areas of land, sea and air Internet of Things data communication coverage can be solved.
At the same time, China Aerospace Science and Technology also took the lead in launching the "Nebula Project", a constellation of space-based Internet of Things. Qian Wei, chairman of Aerospace Xingyun Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Aerospace Sanjiang Group, said that the first phase of the project has been successfully completed. It is planned to complete the second phase of *** 12 satellite launch in 2022 and complete small-scale networking. According to its disclosure, the project will play a role in many fields such as container transportation supervision, geological disaster monitoring, power grid transmission safety supervision, oil and gas exploration and water conservancy and water affairs supervision.
In addition to central enterprises, private satellite launching enterprises have also begun to stand in the center of the stage. Taking Galaxy Aerospace as an example, following the successful technical test of LEO satellite constellation system in cooperation with China Information and Communication Research Institute in May this year, the communication test of 5G satellite access network was initially completed in cooperation with Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications in June 5438+ 10 this year.
"As the national team and private aerospace enterprises are committed to launching low-orbit satellites at the same time, it is estimated that the number of domestic satellite launches will increase by at least 2 times in 2022." Zhang Yi expects.
Pilotage industrial policy accelerates landing
In order to protect and lead the healthy development of LEO satellite industry, China's central and local levels have also issued a number of industrial policies in recent years.
At the national level, in April 2020, China put forward the "new infrastructure" plan for the first time, and satellite Internet was included in the category of communication network infrastructure. In March, 20021,China's Tenth Five-Year Plan was released, which clearly proposed to build a high-speed, ubiquitous, comprehensive, interconnected, safe and efficient information infrastructure, a global and efficient space infrastructure system for communication, navigation and remote sensing, and a commercial space launch site.
202 1, 1 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Tenth Five-Year Development Plan of Information and Communication Industry (hereinafter referred to as the Plan), which was further refined on the basis of the overall goal of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, and put forward the comprehensive deployment of 5G, Gigabit optical fiber network, IPv6, mobile Internet of Things and satellite communication network.
The Plan points out that the layout of satellite communications should be accelerated, the top-level design and overall layout of satellite communications should be strengthened, and the coordinated development of high-orbit satellites and medium-and low-orbit satellites should be promoted; Promote the deep integration of satellite communication system and ground information communication system, initially form an information network covering the whole world and integrating heaven and earth, and provide global information network services for various users of land, sea and air; Actively participate in the formulation of international standards for satellite communications; Encourage the innovation of satellite communication application, promote the large-scale application of Beidou satellite navigation system in the field of information and communication, and promote its application in aviation, navigation, public security emergency, transportation, energy and other fields.
Beijing's implementation plan for accelerating the construction of a global digital economy benchmark city points out that the early deployment of 6G network will support communication integration technologies such as the development of next-generation information and communication network, communication perception integration, communication and artificial intelligence integration, satellite and ground integration, and endogenous security of communication network, and coordinate the research and development of 6G related high-end chips, core devices and simulation verification platforms.
For the policy blessing of various places, Zhang Yi analyzed that the launch of satellites requires extremely high technical accumulation and resource allocation capabilities, and it is difficult for enterprises born in the context of favorable policies in the short term to have the capabilities needed for space launch. Judging from the content of local policies, more enterprises will support industrial chains such as materials, remote sensing, wireless and chips, and the number of the latter will increase significantly in 2022.
In addition, Zhang Yi believes that the intensive introduction of central and local industrial policies reflects that all localities will accelerate the construction of satellite industry. With the launch of commercial satellites entering an active stage in 2022, the scale of the LEO satellite market will also see further growth in 2022.