Japan has been lost for twenty years, why hasn't it collapsed?

From 65438 to 0985, the United States and other five western countries signed the Plaza Agreement with Japan, which opened the nightmare of Japan's economic development. For the next two decades, Japan's economy has been in a downturn, which is called "the lost twenty years".

Especially in the real estate and financial markets, after the bubble economy burst, the whole financial sector collapsed, followed by the economic development speed into a quagmire. However, after more than 20 years of low-key dormancy, the Japanese economy has resumed its previous development momentum. Not only that, it also seeks to improve its international political status with the economic backing.

I. Plaza Agreement: Opening the "Lost Twenty Years"

In the 1960s and 1970s, Japan's economy developed rapidly, and scientific and technological products such as automobiles and household appliances became very popular all over the world, especially the Iran-Iraq war of 1980, which led to the rise of oil prices in the Middle East and the outbreak of a worldwide oil crisis.

The competitive pressure in the automobile industry is increasing, but it is a good opportunity for the Japanese, because Japanese-made cars are not only cheap, but also consume less fuel, so with this advantage, Japanese cars have entered the American market.

After Japanese heavy trucks, excavators and automobiles entered the American market, the pressure on the domestic automobile industry increased, and factory closures and workers' unemployment abound. As a result, an anti-Japanese wave was triggered in the United States, because in addition to cars entering the American market, Japan also captured the American market, such as cameras and motorcycles.

From the example of the automobile industry, we can see the glory of Japanese enterprises, so some economists in the United States even regarded Japan's actions as economic aggression against the United States at that time, and the trade deficit between the United States and Japan was as high as $50 billion a year. Japan is also called the second largest economy in the world at this stage.

So American President Ronald Reagan, driven by public opinion and reality, began to solve the problems of huge trade deficit and Japanese products occupying the American market. 1985, the United States Senate voted to formally list Japan as an "unfair trading country", which is actually equivalent to admitting that the United States has the right to launch targeted crackdown bills against various commodities entering Japan.

Sure enough, in the following two months, the US Senate and House of Representatives passed hundreds of retaliatory bills with rare consistency in order to sanction Japan. However, these bills cannot fundamentally solve the trade deficit of the United States, so the two governments began formal negotiations.

After discussion, Japanese Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakamura, financial officers Guang Lai and Shinzo Abe finally agreed to President Reagan's yen appreciation plan. 1985, the finance ministers of the United States, Britain, Japan, France and Germany (Federal Republic of Germany) signed the Plaza Agreement in new york, and the yen greatly appreciated, which greatly affected exports. Japan lost 20 years.

Second, start again: 2 1 the new development of the century

After Japan signed the Plaza Agreement under the pressure of the United States, the trade deficit of the United States was solved, but the problems of Japan also followed. Japan initially agreed to the appreciation of the yen not only because of the pressure from the United States, but also because it hoped to stimulate the Japanese domestic market and enhance the purchasing power of the yen.

As a result, after the signing of the agreement, the impact of the appreciation of the yen was out of control. In a short period of one year, the yen has appreciated by 20%, which has caused some enterprises that rely on exports to achieve development to be unable to withstand the rapid appreciation of the yen, especially in the electronics industry and shipbuilding industry.

In Japan, not only the depressed economy criticized the Plaza Accord, but also a large number of unemployed voters in Japan strongly criticized Nakasone Yasuhiro as a traitor who destroyed Japanese manufacturing. Under this pressure, Nakasone Yasuhiro began to look for ways to increase exports.

The first is to find a new market, that is, the China market, where relations have just eased. At this time, China just started the reform and opening up and needed foreign investment, so it hit it off with Japan. Secondly, the Japanese government adopted the policy of interest rate reduction to stimulate Japanese enterprises to invest abroad.

Because interest rate cuts can directly reduce the borrowing costs of Japanese people and spend more money on infrastructure, it can also make the yen depreciate quietly and reduce the pressure on Japanese export-oriented enterprises. Finally, the Japanese government directly used state funds to help some large and medium-sized enterprises, while some small enterprises resigned themselves to fate.

1987, Nakasone Yasuhiro promulgated the "government prosperity countermeasures", the main content is that the government will reduce taxes by 1 trillion yen while investing 5 trillion yen in public utilities. With the support of the government, some Japanese enterprises persisted, and some enterprises became the support points of Japan's economic take-off in the 2 1 century, especially scientific and technological enterprises.

Although Japan's overall economic development in these two decades can't be compared with that in the 1960s and 1970s, with the joint efforts of the state, society and individuals, it laid the foundation for Japan's rapid development in the 2nd/kloc-0th century.

Third, there must be a reason to take off again.

After Japan signed the Plaza Agreement, the domestic economy experienced a short period of prosperity, but these were all false bubble economies, and they were greeted by the economic downturn in the next two decades.

In this case, Japan, which is small in area and not rich in resources, has not collapsed, and still maintains the third place in the world, ahead of most powerful countries, mainly for the following reasons.

First of all, Japan's economic foundation still exists. After the Plaza Agreement, the financial and real estate industries have been depressed, which is related to the investment of Wall Street in the United States. Once Wall Street moves, Japan will also be affected.

Therefore, when Wall Street shorts the Japanese stock market, the whole Japanese financial community will trigger an earthquake. In contrast, the development of Japan's primary industry and secondary industry continues, especially the quality of finished products is quite high and the export momentum is strong.

Second, Japan is leading in science and technology. Since World War II, the Japanese government has received military asylum from the United States, so all the expenses originally used for national defense have been invested in scientific research and development, and its scientific and technological strength cannot be underestimated. Many Japanese companies, such as Panasonic, Mitsubishi and Sony, have been committed to innovation in the "lost twenty years".

Trass electric car, robot, Yoko technology, etc. Has been invented. Although they are under great pressure to export because of the appreciation of the yen, technology has accelerated their pace of entering the international market. After entering the 2 1 century, Japan's science and technology further boosted its economic development.

Finally, it is very important for Japan to keep in touch with the United States while actively exploring the Southeast Asian market. After World War II, Japan made "building a country through trade" a national policy. The first step was to enter the Southeast Asian market through post-war compensation and economic cooperation, which also enabled Japan to achieve economic development in the 1980s and 1990s.

At the same time, he also maintained friendly relations between the United States and Japan in order to gain American support and prevent Americans from suspecting Japan's economic development.

In the "lost twenty years", Japan never gave up the opportunity of economic development, always attached great importance to science and technology, maintained friendly relations with the United States, and finally achieved new development in the 2 1 century, making up for the lost opportunities in those years.