? 20 10 Tesla was still in its infancy when it cooperated with Panasonic, and the cooperation was promoted by Hirohiko Yamada, former vice president of Panasonic. In 20 17, Hirohiko Yamada was transferred to Tesla as the vice president of the North American Super Factory jointly established by Tesla and Panasonic, leading the start-up of the factory, and retired in July 20 19. There is no doubt that this is an expert that Tesla and Panasonic both know. We asked him to talk about the future of batteries.
? Most predictions about Tesla are surprisingly wrong.
-Panasonic 20 10 invests in Tesla. At that time, Tesla was still a new enterprise.
? At that time, no one thought Tesla would succeed. Of course, there are still people who are skeptical about Tesla today, but at that time, 10 of 10 people would say: it is impossible to succeed. Despite this, Panasonic decided to cooperate with Tesla, because it hopes to cooperate with Tesla, a company with development potential, to obtain external stimulus to help its own development.
? It turns out that most people are really disappointed with Tesla's expectations. After the super factory went online, it returned to the right track within two years, and the sales growth of EV (electric vehicle) in 20 19 was still less than 370,000. Although there were some delays along the way, for example, it was difficult for Tesla to mass-produce Model3, Tesla's "master plan", that is, the business goal set by CEO Elon Musk in 2006, did not waver at all.
-What's great about Tesla?
? I believe part of the reason is the charm of a man named elon musk. But I think the mission of the company is very clear, and everyone is working together to achieve the goal. My time in Tesla was really interesting. I haven't been bored for two years. As a manager, I have a lot to learn.
? One thing that impressed me particularly was how the budget was allocated. Although capital is a necessary condition for the company's development, Tesla can flexibly change where its limited budget is used according to different time periods. However, the axis of management has not wavered. I am keenly aware that innovation comes from such a place. However, employees work hard and pay high attention, and few people can work with such a dedicated attitude for many years.
? Now the speed of big Japanese companies can't keep up.
-eclectic Tesla and typical Japanese giant Panasonic have had a cooperative relationship for ten years. During this period, Panasonic was once influenced by Tesla's production plan and CEO Musk's words and deeds and was reversed.
? Not only Panasonic, but also Japanese companies can't keep up with Tesla. The challenge is that they are too cautious when making decisions.
? Japan's manufacturing technology is very high, and Japan's semiconductor, liquid crystal, lithium ion battery and other technologies are very advanced. As far as these equipment industries are concerned, when the market enters the expansion period, it is essential to expand production. On the other hand, Japanese companies are worried about short-term profit and loss statements and are cautious about capital investment. In contrast, foreign companies can even suddenly decide to invest heavily in aircraft. China enterprises also received government subsidies. Moreover, before you realize their existence, the output has been surpassed by them. In this way, if Japanese enterprises can't get enough demand and can't make their investment factories run at full capacity, they will lose money, and Japanese enterprises will also lose money. The same thing will happen again.
-You mean the same thing will happen to car batteries?
? There is no doubt that the battery will fall into the same structural problem. This is very disappointing. Of course, this is not the first time we have discovered this situation, which is why Panasonic wants to change this fate and join hands with Tesla, a company with high growth potential.
? But it is not easy for Japanese companies to keep up with Tesla now, unless a very attractive manager or founder participates in the management of the company. Take Tesla as an example, the super factory in North America is about to start, but the number of Tesla sites in Shanghai, Berlin and Texas is growing rapidly.
-Panasonic's investment in super factories in North America is estimated to be around 200 billion yen (about 65.438+0.9 billion US dollars). Panasonic means that we will continue to invest in Tesla to meet the demand, but it is unrealistic to invest so much money every time we build a factory.
? Of course, it is impossible for suppliers to invest huge sums of money every time they build a factory. However, there are more creative ways. For example, once Tesla has built a factory, it will not be built at the same price, nor will it be built at a price lower than 10-20%, but it needs to reduce costs to a greater extent. When you build a new factory or production line, you must come up with some new ideas to get Elon's decision. Therefore, the cost of super factories in Shanghai should be much lower than that in North America. These creative measures to reduce costs are all implemented while running and thinking, and finally completed.
? On the contrary, Japanese companies will say, "We spent so much money last time, so much for the next budget. In this way, our next budget will become so much. In a sense, this is a method based on precedent. They will think carefully before they start investing. Many smart people can see too many risks. In any case, caution is not a bad thing. However, it is also true that Japan's manufacturing industry was defeated.
Electric vehicle batteries are developing in the direction of emphasizing the number of charge and discharge and life.
-Is there any way for Japanese battery manufacturers to survive in the future?
? Whether they can do it or not is another matter. So far, the requirement of electric vehicle battery is to increase energy density to expand the cruising range of the vehicle. So Tesla used Panasonic batteries, which had the highest density in the world.
? Now the cruising range has been extended to a certain extent. In addition to the premise of low cost and high energy density, the emphasis is shifted to the number of charge and discharge times and battery life. Now, battery manufacturers are asked how to deal with these global trends.
? Korean companies have found ways to make full use of this trend, and China companies are trying to follow suit. Whether the battery industry will respond to these demands will be an important turning point in the future.