The era of automobile electrification is unstoppable, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to maintain a high growth trend. Affected by this, in 20 18 years, the total installed capacity of power batteries in China was 56.89GWh, up 56.88% year-on-year, which also led to a substantial increase in the market demand for lithium battery separators. According to relevant statistics, the total shipments of lithium battery separators in China in 20 18 were 2.02 billion square meters, up 39.7% year-on-year.
With the "overtaking by changing lanes" in China's automobile industry, domestic enterprises are gradually replacing overseas products in the fields of battery materials, battery separators, electrolytes and other products. At present, domestic enterprises have controlled the production and sales of four key raw materials-anode materials, cathode materials, electrolyte and separator, which are necessary for new energy vehicles, and the domestic production rate of individual materials has even reached more than 90%.
Power battery production
Among them, because the manufacture of separator involves many disciplines, China's power battery separator industry started late, and it is the last domestic material among the four major materials of lithium batteries. The main reason is the technical barrier of the separator, that is, its performance directly affects the discharge capacity, cycle life and safety of lithium batteries. The manufacture of lithium batteries requires extremely high characteristics of diaphragm products, such as the size and distribution uniformity of diaphragm micropores, especially the consistency.
In the past few years, domestic diaphragm has made great progress in capacity expansion, cost control and technology research and development. At present, it has basically realized localization. Thanks to the continuous growth of downstream power battery market demand, China lithium battery separator continued to rank first in the global market share in 20 18.
However, while the shipment volume has increased substantially, it has been caught in a "price war", and the performance of related enterprises 20 18 is also "two days of ice and fire". The net profit of some enterprises has fallen sharply, and the profitability is not optimistic.
The market differentiation is obvious, and the pattern of two strong players emerges.
Behind the continuous growth of market demand, lithium battery separator enterprises have benefited the most. Up to now, a number of diaphragm enterprises have published annual reports or performance express reports, among which the performance of enterprises represented by Xingyuan Materials (300568) and En Jie Co., Ltd. (0028 12) has shown steady growth. Taking Xingyuan Materials as an example, the company achieved a total profit of 246 million yuan in 20 18, a year-on-year increase of123.92%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106. 14%.
In addition, not long ago, Xingyuan Materials announced that the company signed a cooperation agreement with Funeng Technology, and the estimated contract amount is about 65.438+0.02 billion yuan. The demand for lithium battery separator products of both parties in 2065.438+09 is not less than 40 million square meters, which is expected to have a positive impact on the business performance of Xingyuan Materials in 2065.438+09.
The development of doubling the net profit of revenue also enabled another leading company, Shanghai En Jie, to successfully fulfill its performance promise in the first year after being acquired. En Jie shares disclosed the 20 18 annual performance report, showing that the company expects to achieve revenue of 2.4 billion yuan during the reporting period, up 96.7% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 536 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 243.65%.
Among them, the net profit of En Jie in 20 18 was 658 million yuan. According to the actual purchase ratio, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 20 18 was 494 million yuan, accounting for 92% of the total net profit. Li Xiaoming, chairman of En Jie Co., Ltd., revealed that since 20 19, the company's lithium battery separator has been produced very well, with no rest during the Spring Festival and 24-hour startup.
The company's lithium battery separator products shipped 53 million square meters in 20 19 10, a substantial increase from160,000 square meters in the same period last year; It is estimated that in February 2065438+2009, the company will ship 50-53 million square meters of lithium battery separator products. 20191-In February, the company expects the total shipments of lithium battery separator products to be1.03-1060,000 square meters. The market situation is good this year, and sales are in short supply.
It is understood that the diaphragm price has been declining rapidly since 20 14. At the beginning of 20 18, the leading domestic wet diaphragm enterprises took the initiative to reduce the price by 20%. This is also related to the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles. Power battery companies are forced to reduce costs, and material companies bear the brunt.
As an important part of lithium battery, the proportion of separator in battery cost used to be about 20-30%, but now it has dropped to about 5%- 10%. Under the influence of price killing, not all diaphragm enterprises are so gratifying, and the performance differentiation trend is obvious.
Changyuan Group (600525) 65438+/KLOC-0 released its performance forecast on October 30th, and predicted that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 20 18 would decrease by 625 million yuan to10.79 million yuan, with a reduction range of 55% to 95%. Changyuan Group said that the annual performance of its subsidiary Zhongli New Materials 20 18 dropped significantly due to the drag of Shenzhen Waterma, the former main customer, the adjustment of the national subsidy policy for new energy vehicles and the intensified competition in the lithium battery separator industry.
Another old-fashioned diaphragm enterprise, Niumi Technology, released the 20 18 annual performance report, showing that the company expects the net profit of returning to the mother in 20 18 to be1330,000 ~190,000, which is a change from profit to loss compared with the previous year. Newmi Technology said that the main reason for the decline in total profit was the sharp drop in product prices, which led to the decline in the profitability of the company's products, and the provision for bad debts of accounts receivable increased compared with the same period of last year.
Lithium battery diaphragm is generally divided into dry diaphragm and wet diaphragm according to process, so diaphragm products are also divided into dry diaphragm and wet diaphragm. En Jie and Xingyuan Materials are the core wrestlers in the diaphragm industry in China at present, representing the wet method and the dry method respectively, with the first market share in their respective technological routes.
With the increase of the proportion of ternary power batteries, the proportion of wet diaphragm production has also increased steadily. According to the latest data, the shipment of wet diaphragm last year was 13 1 100 million square meters, up 66.4% year-on-year. At present, the wet diaphragm market tends to be concentrated, while the dry diaphragm market is scattered. Xingyuan Materials, as a leading enterprise in the domestic lithium battery separator industry, is rapidly putting into production wet production capacity in order to share the soup, and the pattern of the two leading enterprises competing for hegemony is becoming more and more obvious.
Xingyuan material
Xingyuan material 20 18, dry diaphragm capacity is about1800,000 square meters, and wet diaphragm capacity is about1800,000 square meters. In the future, with the gradual release of 8 wet diaphragm production lines in Changzhou Xingyuan, 400 million square meters in 8 dry diaphragm production lines in Jiangsu Xingyuan and 654.38 billion square meters in 50 coated diaphragm production lines and technical upgrading, the overall profitability of the company will be greatly improved, and the leading position in the diaphragm industry will be effectively defended.
At present, the competition pattern of diaphragm enterprises is the same as that of power batteries, and the market share of the top five enterprises is increasing, reaching 54.3%, which is 4.3 percentage points higher than that of 20 17. The competition of diaphragm enterprises has been reflected in cost control and performance, quality stability, financial strength of enterprises and so on.
With the expansion of production capacity of diaphragm head enterprises, the appearance of scale effect and the investment in new product development, the gap between third-and fourth-tier enterprises and head enterprises will further widen. Diaphragm is a capital-intensive industry in materials industry, and only high gross profit can support industrial development. With the intensification of differentiation among enterprises, the operating pressure faced by post-echelon enterprises has increased sharply. It is estimated that some diaphragm enterprises will close down or stop production in 20 19.
Fierce industry competition, coupled with the decline of subsidy policy, high-cost and low-quality enterprises will inevitably be eliminated, and companies with real technology, strength and complete layout will also stand out. This is a "self-purification" reshuffle of the current mixed diaphragm industry pattern. However, after the development of enterprises and technological progress, domestic leading enterprises began to look to overseas markets, positioning themselves globally, and strive for a share in the international market.
Positioning the export of global wrestling diaphragm
In the long run, global electrification is the general trend in the future, and the new energy automobile industry is still a new blue ocean. Under the background of global electrification, many domestic diaphragm enterprises have taken the lead in opening the global strategic layout and entering the supply chain of foreign companies. With the acceleration of localization of Tesla, LG Chem, Samsung SDI and Panasonic, domestic diaphragm enterprises have more opportunities to enter their supply chains.
Lithium ion battery separator
Xingyuan Materials is one of the few domestic enterprises that enter the international market in advance and provide diaphragm products to internationally renowned lithium battery manufacturers in batches. As overseas markets are biased towards high-end diaphragm products, the requirements for technical threshold and product quality are higher, while the price fluctuation tends to be relatively flat, which coincides with Xingyuan Materials' strategy of laying out high-end diaphragm business earlier.
2065438+In July 2008, Xingyuan Materials announced that the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Murata Co., Ltd., and both parties will make full use of their respective advantages in research and development and sales of lithium-ion battery separators. Murata regards the company as a priority supplier of lithium-ion battery separators, and Murata will give priority to purchasing lithium-ion battery separators from the company on the premise that the company's separator products meet Murata's requirements.
According to industry analysis, the new energy automobile industry in China will face a situation of complete competition after the subsidy is withdrawn. In the post-subsidy era, the new energy automobile industry will continue to develop at a high speed, and the opportunities of leading enterprises in the industrial chain will outweigh the challenges, and the pattern of the strong will gradually take shape.
Chen Xiufeng, chairman of Xingyuan Materials, once said that we should subsidize Poe. Without subsidies, many foreign auto giants will come in. At present, 50% of our products are exported overseas, and my requirement is to export more than 70% by 2020. We don't fight price wars, we fight value wars. I do a good job in overseas markets, first satisfying exports and then developing domestic sales, because the requirements of foreign markets are quality first and cost second, while domestic markets now emphasize cost more. For overseas markets, the company has established good business relations with Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volkswagen and Bosch, and we are very optimistic about the high-end automobile market.
While consolidating the domestic market, Shanghai En Jie is also exploring overseas customers. In 20 18, the company cooperated with an overseas customer to develop a product, which was mainly used for modern and popular power batteries. With the continuous improvement of the company's product quality, the production capacity can meet the needs of customers. Customers keep asking the company to increase shipments and reach an understanding with the company on strengthening cooperation in 20 19 and the next five years, and the customer's demand for this product will increase greatly.
In addition, the company has started to cooperate with a well-known overseas customer, who has completed the certification of four asynchronous production lines in En Jie, Zhuhai. At present, Zhuhai En Jie is producing in an orderly way according to the order, and will deliver the goods to customers in early March.
According to Paul Xiaoming Lee, the company's lithium battery separator delivery target in 20 19 is 10 billion square meters, including 230-250 million square meters for overseas customers and 750-770 million square meters for domestic customers. At present, overseas customers who place orders in hand include but are not limited to Samsung, American A 123 and French customer base. The price and payment of overseas customers are in good condition. In 20 19, the company's expected delivery target for overseas customers is 230-250 million square meters.
Shanghai En Jie
At present, En Jie, which has profound technical skills, has begun to lay out its global business and planned two production bases in Europe and the United States. The whole overseas market construction project is expected to be completed in 2022, with the total production capacity of two base films reaching 65.438+0.5 billion square meters and the total production capacity of coating film reaching 65.438+0.2 billion square meters.
In China, Shanghai En Jie established production bases in Wuxi, Jiangsu and Gao 'an, Jiangxi respectively according to the company's strategic planning. It is expected that the products will be put on the market in the first half of 20 19. Together with the existing Shanghai and Zhuhai bases, the annual production capacity of Shanghai En Jie is very considerable, and all production bases serve the domestic and global markets in coordination.
The homogenization competition of 20 18 diaphragm industry is fierce. Looking forward to 20 19, diaphragm prices will still show a downward trend, and different enterprises will face different choices. By 2020, the diaphragm industry will present a clear pattern. Chen Xiufeng once said that now is the stage when the master has made a move. In the future, the diaphragm industry will definitely dump a number of enterprises and die a number of enterprises. Finally, the market must belong to enterprises that make products with heart, which is an inevitable market law.