A few days ago, the price negotiation of imported iron ore, which attracted much attention, came out with shocking news: from April 2005 1, the price of imported iron ore of China iron and steel enterprises rose by 7 1.5%, which greatly exceeded the domestic industry expectation of 30% ~ 50%. At present, 50% of China's iron ore is imported. The agreement reached by Baosteel on behalf of China Steel Plant shows that China steel industry has been forced to accept the "sky-high price" of international mining giants.
First, it suddenly rose by 7 1.5%.
A few days ago, the website of Shanghai Baosteel Group, the largest iron and steel enterprise in China, quietly posted an announcement: After negotiation, Baosteel reached an iron ore price agreement with Brazil's Vale and Hammersley, the world's largest iron ore suppliers. Compared with 2004, the prices of SFCJFOB and SSFFOB increased by 765,438+0.5% respectively.
This increase is consistent with the agreement reached on February 22, 2005 by Nippon Steel, the largest steel manufacturer in Japan, Vale of Brazil and BHP Billiton, another iron ore giant. This move by Nippon Steel surprised enterprises in Europe and China, and quickly caused a shock in the global steel industry, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.
Because Brazil's Vale, Hammersley and BHP Billiton control 80% of the world's iron ore resources, they usually negotiate the annual price of iron ore in the new fiscal year before April every year, thus forming the practice of international iron ore negotiation. The largest iron and steel enterprise in each country negotiates on behalf of the country's iron and steel industry to form the benchmark price of imported iron ore in the country. According to previous years' experience, the price in the Asia-Pacific region determined by the annual iron ore price negotiation is generally the price determined after the negotiation in Japan. It can be said that Japan's negotiation pricing directly affects the iron ore price in the Asia-Pacific region. Subsequently, the three iron ore giants successively signed similar agreements with steel enterprises in five countries and regions, including Taiwan Province Zhonghua Iron and Steel Company, South Korea's Posco Iron and Steel Company, and Australia's Blue Range Iron and Steel Company, with a price increase of 7 1.5%.
This is the biggest increase in Asian iron ore prices after the contract price of iron ore imported by Japanese steel mills rose by 18.6% in 2004. For China, the world's largest steel exporter, this is a disastrous price, because if calculated according to the import data in 2004, this price increase will erode the profits of China's steel industry by 30%.
Secondly, Japan has dug a "price trap"
In view of the "outrageous" price of this round of international negotiations, although many people think that Baosteel was forced to reach this price agreement far beyond the expectations of domestic steel enterprises because of the strong seller's market, there are also signs that China steel enterprises have fallen into the "price trap" set by the Japanese for China this time.
Japanese steel producers need about 654.38+0.3 billion tons of iron ore and 65 million tons of coal every year. In 2005, Japanese steel producers will increase their expenditure by more than 200 billion yen due to the price increase of iron ore, and the cost of Japanese steel industry will increase by more than 6543.8+0 trillion yen due to the price increase of coal, which is equivalent to the total profit of the industry in 2004. In 2005, the Japanese steel industry could only absorb about 654.38+000 billion yen at most. If these costs are not passed on to the steel price, the profits of the whole Japanese steel industry will be reduced by 900 billion yen, which will seriously affect the subsequent development of the whole industry.
Since 2004, China has changed from a traditional steel importer to a net steel exporter. China steel enterprises, which have huge cost advantages, have a good development momentum. In 2005, steel exports are expected to exceed100000 tons, which will have a certain impact on Japan, a traditional steel exporting country. Different from the previous pure competition, this time it is a "price trap". The Japanese took the lead probably because of their superiority in resources. By increasing costs, they attacked their opponents, squeezed the living space of China iron and steel enterprises by virtue of their strong economic strength, disrupted the normal development of China iron and steel enterprises, and further consolidated their dominance in price negotiations in the Asia-Pacific region.
Rising prices have also caused huge losses to Japanese steel and related industries. However, Japanese steel enterprises have set a "price trap" at the expense of their own interests because of the different affordability of Japanese enterprises and Chinese enterprises, and the most critical factor is the depreciation of the US dollar. Due to the appreciation of the yen against the US dollar, Japan's import cost is not as big as the actual price increase, which provides a good room for Japanese companies to maneuver. While the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is relatively stable, the further decline of the US dollar will increase the actual import cost of China, and the cost of China enterprises will rise faster than that of Japanese enterprises.
Third, the "sky-high price" has stirred up the China market.
For China, the world's largest steel exporter, this is a disastrous price, and numerous steel mills and their downstream enterprises will be frustrated. However, most large domestic iron and steel enterprises are optimistic about the rise in iron ore prices: on the one hand, because large enterprises enjoy resource advantages; On the other hand, because it has product advantages, it can transfer costs by raising the ex-factory price. Small enterprises without product advantages are getting closer to the bottom line.
There is no doubt that steel is the most important raw material for industry. The rising trend of steel market will have different effects on the operation of seven downstream industries.
1, automobile industry: the impact on the industry is fierce.
The price increase of steel is definitely bad news for the automobile industry, and it is more difficult for small enterprises to survive. In 2004, in order to keep profits and absorb the rising prices of raw materials, the crisis of rising prices of raw materials and lowering prices in the market was further passed on to parts enterprises, especially those with steel as their main raw materials.
2005 is still a difficult year for parts enterprises, especially those low-end and low-tech small parts manufacturers. This kind of crisis also occurs in small automobile manufacturers, because they have no right to choose parts suppliers, so the procurement cost will definitely rise and the prospect is worrying.
2. Home appliance industry: See who can bear it more.
After the international iron ore price increase, the impact on the home appliance industry may be the first. The home appliance industry, which has entered the era of low profit, is quite sensitive to the price increase of raw materials, especially those enterprises that expand with low cost and low price strategy. Of course, the impact of rising steel prices on the home appliance industry has both advantages and disadvantages. On the one hand, enterprises will therefore strengthen internal management and cost control, which may strengthen industry concentration; However, shortcomings may lead some enterprises to cut corners and affect the actual value of products. Another topic worthy of attention is: how can enterprises absorb the pressure of cost increase after the rising price of raw materials leads to the increase of enterprise costs? The key period depends on who can bear it more.
3. Shipbuilding: the impact is relatively small.
The impact of rising iron ore prices on shipbuilding industry is not as great as expected. Due to the different types and proportions of steel required by each company, the impact is also different. Up to now, the main domestic shipyards are Jiangnan Shipyard, Dalian Shipyard and Huangpu Shipyard. Due to the long shipbuilding cycle, marine steel plates are relatively less affected by the price increase of iron ore. Generally speaking, the shipbuilding cycle is about 10 to 12 months, and the required raw materials are also scheduled in advance.
4. The way to reduce costs.
Construction and installation costs account for 30% ~ 40% of the house price, and steel costs only account for about 10% of the whole house price. If the steel price increase can be controlled at 20%, the gross profit margin of real estate listed companies will not be greatly affected. Real estate enterprises can reduce the cost pressure caused by rising steel prices by raising housing prices and reducing other costs, such as shortening the construction period, repaying loans in advance and reducing procurement costs.
Fourth, warn China enterprises.
Warning 1: abandon excessive panic
In 2005, the price of imported iron ore rose by 7 1.5%, which was far beyond the normal fluctuation range of the market. At present, the profit rate of iron ore enterprises has exceeded 100%, which is a serious profiteering, and this situation will not last long.
Generally speaking, the supply and demand situation of mineral products in 2005 was better than that in 2004, while the domestic market in China was even better than the international market. In 2005, China's iron ore imports will increase by about 15% at most, because in 2004, China imported 210 million tons of iron ore, and the actual consumption was more than10 million tons. At present, there are more than 37 million tons of imported ore stored in the port, which does not include the iron concentrate stored by iron and steel enterprises in winter. Therefore, there will be no substantial increase in ore imports in 2005, and the domestic market should treat iron ore resources dialectically and overcome panic.
In 2004, some enterprises were too worried about resources and blindly bought a large amount of iron ore at high prices, which led to high costs devouring the overall profits of enterprises. We should have a sense of urgency, keep a clear head and see clearly the difficulties and challenges. But if you exaggerate your worries too much, you will lose confidence. Conditions will change, and the development of economic globalization will inevitably promote the mutual transformation of various favorable and unfavorable conditions, so there is no need to panic too much about resources.
Warning 2: Strive for the right to speak in the international market.
At present, China imports 50% of its iron ore, making it the largest importer of iron ore in the world. Besides, as the only country in the world with an annual output of more than 200 million tons of steel, China has no right to speak on imported iron ore. Japan's powerful steel enterprises, represented by Nippon Steel, have been leading the price negotiations with international iron ore giants. China iron and steel enterprises have long been excluded from pricing discussions, and can only sign iron ore import contracts according to the so-called "open price in the Asia-Pacific region" negotiated by Nippon Steel. With the rapid expansion of iron ore demand of China iron and steel enterprises, how to win the right to speak in international iron ore trade negotiations will largely determine the fate of China iron and steel enterprises.
At present, there are 523 iron ore importers in China. However, due to the low industrial concentration, the raw material procurement system of each enterprise is quite scattered, which makes the whole iron ore import, negotiation and transportation in a disorderly and passive state. Especially in recent years, a large number of iron and steel enterprises have been built and put into production, and the profit rate of iron ore trade has been greatly improved. Individual iron and steel raw material trading enterprises used the market gap to raise prices, which contributed to the inflated domestic iron ore prices, thus greatly weakening China's initiative in the negotiation of ore prices.
Judging from the international supply and demand of iron ore, the tight supply and demand situation will be greatly alleviated in the next two or three years. Therefore, China Steel Works should be "calm" in international ore procurement, and do not artificially create "tension". Once the market shows signs of easing, China should take the initiative to take advantage of its market share and gradually gain the initiative in price negotiation.
China enterprises don't have to compete for high-priced resources in the international market, but should change their international procurement mode in time, increase their negotiating weight in the international market with their overall strength, and at the same time improve the transparency of procurement, maintain the matching between supply and demand, and form the best profit structure for utilizing domestic and international markets.
Warning 3: seek industry synergy
The market disorder caused by blind import and vicious competition has made China lose its dominant position as a big buyer of iron ore; Due to the lack of necessary coordination and self-discipline, some enterprises artificially speculate on the domestic iron ore price, which leads to the "false high" of iron ore price and has brought great negative influence to the international iron ore price negotiation. Therefore, iron ore importers in China should actively seek to form a joint force to enhance their position in future negotiations.
On February 28th, 2005, nearly 200 representatives from domestic 120 enterprises passed the "Qualification Standards and Application Procedures for Iron Ore Import Enterprises" (draft) jointly formulated by China Minmetals Chemical Import and Export Chamber of Commerce and China Iron and Steel Industry Association, which is an important step towards industry coordination, self-discipline and self-improvement. The draft stipulates the conditions that iron ore importers must meet. Participants generally believe that the implementation of qualification standard certification will help realize the large-scale operation of iron ore imports, curb vicious competition, and then standardize the entire market order.
Warning 4: launch a new deal to save yourself.
Two days after the dust settled in the price negotiation between Baosteel and foreign iron ore suppliers, the new policy of the state on iron ore import market began to be implemented. On March 1 2005, the "Administrative Measures for Automatic Import License of Iron Ore", which attracted much attention, was formally implemented, which ensured the iron ore demand of large domestic iron and steel enterprises by raising the iron ore import threshold. This means that even if a small company can afford the cost, it is likely that it will not get the supply of goods, thus facing the dilemma of going out. The whole steel industry will be reorganized and merged to speed up the pace of structural optimization. This measure will help to alleviate the excessive growth of China's demand for international iron ore and the rise of international iron ore prices to some extent, thus helping China gain the dominant position in future iron ore negotiations.