Panorama: The guarantee institution is the most important subject.
The guarantee industry mainly includes guarantee institutions, guaranteed enterprises and fund suppliers. Among them, insurance institutions are the most important market players and providers of insurance business. At present, China's guarantee institutions can be divided into three types according to their nature, namely, policy guarantee institutions, mutual guarantee institutions and commercial guarantee institutions; The guaranteed enterprise is generally the demand side of the insurance market and the demand side of the insurance business; The providers of funds include banks, non-bank financial institutions and enterprises.
Industrial status quo
-the national financing guarantee fund solves the pain points of the industry.
201810129 October, the China Banking Regulatory Commission approved the "Reply on the Establishment of National Financing Guarantee Fund Co., Ltd. by Four Banks, including Development Bank, Exim Bank, Agricultural Development Bank and Postal Savings Bank", the main content of which is to approve four banks, including Development Bank, Agricultural Development Bank and Postal Savings Bank, to invest in National Financing Guarantee Fund Co., Ltd., with the amount not exceeding.
2 billion yuan, 65.438+0 billion yuan, 65.438+0 billion yuan, 2 billion yuan, the shareholding ratio is respectively
3.0257%, 1.5 1.29%, 1.5 1.29%, 3.0257%, the required funds are allocated from the capital, which requires strengthening the risk isolation system and adhering to the principle of paying equal attention to investment and governance. The shareholders of the fund company are shown in the following table:
The guarantee targets of national financing guarantee fund companies are small and micro enterprises, "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" and entrepreneurial and innovative enterprises. According to the calculation of the relevant government staff, with the contribution of the follow-up national financing guarantee fund in place, the new loan target of supporting small and micro enterprises/kloc-0.5 million households and/kloc-0.4 billion yuan will be achieved throughout the year. In the next three years, the fund can support related secured loans of about 500 billion yuan, accounting for about 1/4 of the national financing guarantee business, and strive to solve the problems of financing difficulties and expensive financing in small and micro enterprises and other fields.
It has been more than three years since the National Financing Guarantee Fund Corporation was put forward in July 20 15 to June 20 18, and its evolution process is not continuous. This measure was not put on the agenda in the documents or meetings at the national level in July 20 16, but it was not put on the agenda again at the the State Council executive meeting until September 20 17. The specific policy promotion process is shown in the following table:
-Subdivided products are constantly emerging.
China's guarantee industry started late. From 1993, the first credit guarantee company was established, and 1999 began the pilot of credit guarantee for SMEs. 20 years later.
The development in 2000 has gradually formed a certain scale. Generally speaking, the development of China's guarantee industry can be divided into four stages: initial exploration stage (1993- 1997), capital construction stage (1998-2002), sustainable development stage (2003-2008) and standardization and rectification stage (2009) The specific characteristics of the four development stages of the industry and the main laws and regulations promulgated are shown in the following table:
Since the development of the guarantee industry in China, the business categories subdivided by the industry are in a blowout trend. China's guarantee business can be divided into direct guarantee, counter-guarantee and re-guarantee according to the types of guarantee business. China's guarantee market business mainly consists of direct guarantee business and re-guarantee business. Usually, commercial guarantee institutions only engage in direct guarantee business, and the re-guarantee business is undertaken by a few policy re-guarantee institutions approved by the government.
Another relatively rare guarantee business becomes counter-guarantee. Counter-guarantee refers to the act that a third party provides a guarantee for the debtor to the creditor, but requires the debtor to provide a guarantee for itself, that is, the guarantee provided for the guarantor. The detailed classification of guarantee business in China is shown in the following figure:
-The growth rate of guarantee business rebounded.
In the past two years, due to the slowdown of macroeconomic growth, the operating conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises have deteriorated, and the growth rate of insurance balance in the guarantee industry has slowed down significantly. It is generally believed that the scale of guarantee business is positively related to the scale of social financing, and the growth rate of social financing scale stock determines the speed of guarantee scale expansion to a certain extent.
However, since 20 19, the rising speed of guarantee stocks began to pick up. By the end of 2020, the stock of social financing scale was 284.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%.
From 20 17 to 2020 12, the guarantee balance of financial products of financial guarantee institutions showed a continuous growth trend. As of 2020 12, the balance of guarantee liability of financial guarantee institutions is 7182.49 million yuan.
Judging from the compensation of financing guarantee institutions, due to the different disclosure degrees of financing guarantee institutions, only the data of compensation receivable from financing guarantee institutions in table 1 can be obtained. Due to the release of the downward pressure on the macro-economy and the adjustment of the business structure of guarantee institutions last year, the growth rate of compensation scale in the whole industry has slowed down. By the end of June 2020, there were five financial guarantee institutions with increased claims receivable. Among them, Jiangsu Credit Re-guarantee Group Co., Ltd., Anhui Credit Guarantee Group Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen High-tech Investment Group Co., Ltd. grew rapidly, and the growth rates at the end of June 2020 were 1 1.3 1%,1.56% and/kloc respectively.
Judging from the scale of compensation, the guarantee companies with larger compensation scale are Anhui Credit Guarantee Group Co., Ltd. and Zhonghe SME Financing Guarantee Co., Ltd., and the compensation receivable is 654.38+27.3 million yuan and 654.38+29.9 million yuan respectively. The business attribute of Anhui Credit Guarantee Group Co., Ltd. is partial to policy, supporting small and micro enterprises and "agriculture, rural areas and farmers", and the scale of compensation is relatively high under the background of macroeconomic downturn;
The high compensation of Zhonghe SME Financing Guarantee Co., Ltd. is mainly due to the increase in the compensation scale of industrial debt guarantee customers. In the future, under the background of great downward pressure on macro-economy, the compensation pressure of financial guarantee institutions is still great.
Competition pattern
-Enterprise competition pattern: industry concentration is relatively high.
At present, China's guarantee companies can be divided into three categories according to their nature and objectives, namely, policy guarantee institutions, mutual guarantee institutions and commercial guarantee institutions. The following table shows the details of the three types of institutions:
From 20 17 to 20 19, the proportion of the guarantee balance of financial products in the market share of the top ten financial guarantee institutions was 83.89%, 83.45% and 78.82%, respectively, showing a general downward trend, with a large decline since 20 19; In 2020, the proportion of 65438+February was 7 1.7 1%, which was further decreased compared with the end of 20 19. However, the industry concentration is still high, and the business is concentrated in national financing guarantee institutions and large-scale provincial platform financing guarantee institutions, which will be in the top ten in 20 17-2020.
With the slowdown of economic growth, the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks keeps rising, from 0.95% in 20 12 to 1.86% in 20 19. At present, the main body of financing guarantee in China is still bank loans, and the qualifications of enterprises that use guarantees to increase their credit are relatively low, and the probability of generating non-performing loans is high. At present, the payout ratio of the guarantee industry is higher than that of the banking industry, and the gap between them will further widen. Guarantee enterprises with weak capital strength and inadequate risk management will be further impacted, and the differentiation of the guarantee industry in China will be further intensified.
-Regional competition pattern: Jiangsu Province remains the first in the industry.
Judging from the distribution of guarantee business volume in various provinces, the proportion of Jiangsu Province has been the first in the industry in recent years, and the proportion of the industry is relatively stable. On the whole, the proportion of Anhui Province shows a downward trend. Compared with 20 19, the proportion of 20 19 decreased by 9.77 percentage points to 2.85%, and slightly increased to 3.7 1% in 2020. From 20 17 to 2020 12, the industry proportion of guarantee amount in Sichuan Province increased steadily, from 6.75% in 20 17 to 17.09% in 2020, making it the second largest province at present.
According to the distribution of guaranteed bonds, by the end of February, 2020, the three provinces with the highest bond guarantee balance were Jiangsu Province (accounting for 19.29%), Sichuan Province (accounting for 12.45%) and Hunan Province (accounting for 10.83%). Generally speaking, the balance ratio of each province has not changed much compared with the end of 20 19.
development trends
-The business development of guarantee institutions tends to be flat.
The business development of guarantee institutions tends to be flat, and most of the newly established guarantee companies are provincial guarantee companies. One of the ways to set up financing guarantee companies or solve the problem of issuing bonds in the region is to strengthen the policy functions of guarantee institutions.
Considering that inclusive finance is advocated by the state at present and will be affected by the epidemic in 2020, the state will actively support small and micro enterprises to fight against the adverse effects caused by the epidemic. In the short term, the scale of indirect financing guarantee business will increase, the growth rate of bond guarantee business will tend to be flat, and the overall balance of guarantee responsibility will increase. Affected by market fluctuations and the magnification of some large guarantee institutions approaching the regulatory requirements, it is expected that the overall industry development will remain stable in the future.
Affected by recent policies and rising external credit risks, the single customer concentration of guarantee companies will further decline, and the industry concentration will maintain the current level. The customer quality of financial product guarantee institutions, which mainly focus on bond guarantee business, will gradually move upwards, and the business of guarantee institutions will further shrink to the registered place and main business place, and the regional concentration will become more significant.
—— Provincial platform guarantee companies actively build a guarantee system.
On the one hand, provincial guarantee companies actively connect with national financing guarantee funds, cooperate with county-level guarantee companies in the province to establish a three-level guarantee system, and further optimize the guarantee system in the province. The province's guarantee institutions take the lead in actively developing small, micro, rural areas and farmers' guarantee business, effectively solving the financing difficulties of small, micro, rural areas and farmers and promoting high-quality economic development.
On the other hand, in the context of the gradual exposure of the external credit environment, the guarantee institutions engaged in the guarantee business of financial products such as bonds have increased the frequency of risk investigation of existing projects, become more cautious about new projects, and increase the overall operating pressure. Guarantee institutions urgently need to adjust the low-level customer structure, and the business volume may decline to some extent.
On the whole, the overall credit level of guarantee institutions in provinces with strong regional economy remains at a high level under the circumstances of strong policy support in the province and relatively good quality of guaranteed customers.
-The default risk of enterprises is still high, and the compensation pressure of financial guarantee institutions is still high.
At present, on the one hand, due to the gradual increase in the scale of guarantee business, although the scale of indirect financing guarantee business will increase, considering that the rate has decreased under the guidance of policies, and at the same time, the supervision has strengthened the requirements for asset classification of guarantee institutions to ensure their liquidity, the scale of entrusted loan business has declined, and the overall profit scale has limited growth.
On the other hand, due to the comprehensive impact of the current macroeconomic downturn and the COVID-19 epidemic, the external credit level has deteriorated and declined. Since 2020, there have been many defaults in financial products such as bonds. 202 1, the risk of default is still increasing. If financing guarantee companies with large centralized default amount are not excluded, the off-balance-sheet write-off of guarantee institutions will be intensified. In the future, with the increase of the term of bond guarantee business, the profits of financial product guarantee institutions will be eroded to some extent. According to public data, the total asset impairment losses of financial product guarantee institutions in 20 19 years increased by 14 1.03% compared with the previous year.
For more data, please refer to the Analysis Report on Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning of China Guarantee Industry by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.