First, wind power has entered a new wave of rushing to install.
The adjustment of subsidy policy is the main driving factor for the change of new installed capacity of wind power in China in the short term. In 2009, the benchmark electricity price policy for wind power grid was implemented for the first time, and the benchmark electricity price for wind power grid was lowered for the first time in 20 15. After two adjustments, the newly installed capacity of wind power has hit record highs. We judge that 19 may subsidy reduction policy will still lead a new wave of wind power rushing to install. It is estimated that 19-2 1 year, when the existing projects are connected to the grid, the newly added installed capacity will be 26GW, 30GW and 33GW respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 15%. Among them, the growth rate of onshore wind power is expected to gradually decrease at 20 19-202 1, and the newly installed capacity of offshore wind power is expected to maintain rapid growth in the next three years due to relatively less subsidies and more mature technologies of wind turbines and industrial chains. 20 16 1 10 energy bureau put forward to actively and steadily promote offshore wind power construction in the 13th five-year plan for wind power development. By 2020, the scale of offshore wind power construction in China will reach 10 million kilowatts, and the cumulative grid-connected capacity will reach more than 5 million kilowatts. By the end of 20 18, the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in China was 4.445 million kilowatts, and the approved offshore wind power projects reached 23 million kilowatts. We predict that the new installed capacity of offshore wind power in China from 2065438 to 2020 will be 2.2GW, 3GW and 4GW.
Second, the long-term drive of the industry will shift from policy to cost reduction.
The initial investment cost and annual on-grid capacity are two endogenous variables that affect the cost of wind power. 1. The technical progress makes the bid price of the wind turbine decrease, but the cost of the wind turbine does not increase proportionally, which provides space for the initial investment cost to decrease; 2. With the increase of power generation utilization hours and the decrease of wind rejection rate, the annual on-grid electricity consumption increases year by year. Datang Electric Power Research Institute predicts that the cost of onshore wind power in China will be reduced from 0.4 1 yuan/kw in 20 18 to 0.33 yuan/kwh in 2023, with a reduction range of 19.5 1%, and the cost of offshore wind power will be reduced from 20 18. ?
Benefiting from the decrease of the total installation cost (equipment purchase cost+Jian 'an project cost) brought by technological progress, the global onshore and offshore wind power costs have also entered a downward channel. According to the renewable energy power generation cost report released by the International Renewable Energy Agency in 20 18, the weighted average LCOE of onshore wind power put into operation globally in 20 18 is 0.056 USD/kWh, which is 13% lower than that in 20 10. The global weighted average LCOE of offshore wind power in 20 18 is 0. 127 USD/kWh, which is 1% lower than that in 20 17 and 20% lower than that in 20 10. 1, the continuous improvement of wind turbine design and manufacture, the more competitive global supply chain and the increase of wind turbine series are the main driving forces leading to the decrease of onshore wind power cost. 2. Technological progress and scale effect are the main driving forces for the cost reduction of offshore wind power. Large-scale wind turbines expand the capacity of wind farms, reduce the number of wind turbines, reduce the installation cost and project development cost, and reduce the operation and maintenance cost due to the optimization of wind turbine technology.
Third, the gross profit margin is expected to recover.
The peak of steel price brought by supply-side reform has appeared at 20 18. Under the macroeconomic pressure, the price of 20 19 main steel products has declined, and the gross profit margin of steel structure parts companies with steel as the main raw material is expected to be restored. By August, 20 19, the prices of other pig iron, billet and steel plate decreased by 4.39%, 3.52% and 6.33% respectively, except for the price of scrap steel which continued to increase by 8.54% due to the increase of iron ore price. At present, the price of iron ore has dropped from the high point in July, and it is expected that the price of scrap steel will also drop relatively. It is estimated that in the second quarter of 20 19, some steel structure companies will recover their gross profit margin due to the decline in raw material prices.
Fourth, leading companies in sub-sectors are fully dominant.
In terms of market space, tower (35.2 billion/year) is the largest, followed by casting (65.438+0.65 billion/year), flange, engine room cover and rotor room are between 2 billion and 3 billion, and stator is the smallest; From the perspective of competition pattern, the concentration of casting, spindle and flange industries is high, while the tower, engine room cover, rotor room and stator section are scattered; In terms of operational quality, leading companies in sub-sectors are fully dominant. On the premise that the wind power is rushing to install and the price of raw materials tends to fall, we are optimistic about the leading companies in the wind power structural parts industry in the next three years, and recommend paying attention to the wind power casting leader Sun Moon, Tianshun Wind Energy, Tianneng Heavy Industry, wind power spindle leader, Jin Lei and wind power engine room cover leader Shuang Yi Science and Technology.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) stock analysis
Riyue shares (6032 18)
Expand production capacity against the trend
Through IPO, expansion project, technical transformation and this convertible bond fundraising project, the company will gradually form an annual output of 400,000 tons of wind power castings and 220,000 tons of finishing capacity in the next three years, becoming the world's largest wind power casting production and finishing enterprise, and the global market share of wind power castings will reach 24%.
The "two seas" strategy has gradually landed, and the company's profitability is expected to be further improved. In overseas markets, the company continues to cooperate with Vestas, and the order volume continues to increase. Achieve batch supply with international customers such as GE and Siemens Gemeisa. At the same time, the company focuses on the research and development and production of large MW models and offshore wind turbines, and the R&D expenses increased by 376,5438+0% year-on-year. It is estimated that the offshore wind power project will be put into operation in the third quarter of 19, with 65,438+10,000 tons. In the next three years, the proportion of high-margin overseas income and offshore wind power income will continue to increase. The company's gross profit margin is expected to further increase.
Tianshun wind energy (00253 1)
Technical transformation and expansion to increase production capacity to meet the installation boom.
In 20 18, the company shipped 380,000 tons, which was basically the same as that in 17. 20 19 Taicang, Baotou and Zhuhai have completed technical transformation and expansion, and the outsourcing capacity is superimposed. It is estimated that the shipment in 20 19 will reach 480,000-500,000 tons. Steel prices are expected to fall, and the company's gross profit per ton is expected to bottom out. Due to the increase of steel price in the first half of 20 18, the gross profit per ton of the tower decreased to 1623 yuan/ton, and the steel price decreased obviously in the fourth quarter, with a gross profit per ton of 20 1737 yuan/ton. It is expected that the price of 19 steel will decrease steadily, and the gross profit per ton of wind tower will return to the rising channel.
Wind farm operation has improved profitability, and it is expected that blades will gradually play a role. It is estimated that the effective power generation scale of the company in 20 19 will be above 550MW; In 20 18, the first phase of Changshu blade factory has basically completed the capacity climbing, contributing 25 10/00000 yuan, up 52.64% year-on-year. The company has developed and produced blades and molds, which is expected to increase profit contribution in the future.
(article source: investment express) solemnly declare that the purpose of publishing this information is to spread more information, which has nothing to do with the position of this website.