Peter Lynch.
Due to the continuous progress of photovoltaic technology, the power generation mode and energy structure of the earth people have undergone subversive changes for the first time, which is no less than an important event of the industrial revolution and affects all aspects of human life around the world.
This will inevitably be reflected in the capital market. The solar photovoltaic market is not only a simple concept hype, but also a profound change in human scientific and technological progress and lifestyle, which has created a long-term investment wave in this industry. Perhaps in the long run, the solar photovoltaic market has just begun, and there will be a broader space in the next five years.
202 1 PV will go crazy! Orders from industry giants are weak, and many giants intensively increase capital and expand production. The upstream silicon industry and glass industry have ascended to heaven!
With the weakening of the global epidemic, vaccine research and development has been successful, especially in China, where the economy has obviously recovered and new projects have been accelerated. In 20021year, the global PV installed capacity will reach more than 174GW, up 40% year-on-year, and the domestic installed capacity will be 64GW, up +56% year-on-year. Overseas market growth 1 10GW, up +33% year-on-year.
Affected by this, the leading photovoltaic enterprise 202 1 will be very busy! Orders were received softly, capacity supply failed, and many giants intensively announced capital increase and share expansion:
Follette signed a contract with Jingke Energy to sell photovoltaic calendered glass, with an estimated price of 1, 4 1.96 billion yuan. The company announced that it plans to invest 4.35 billion yuan to build five photovoltaic module glass projects with a daily melting capacity of10.02 million tons;
Jing 'ao Co., Ltd., which specializes in photovoltaic silicon wafers, plans to invest 5.8 billion yuan to build 20GW crystal pulling and 20GW slicing projects in Baotou Equipment Manufacturing Industrial Park;
GCL Energy Plan, which is mainly engaged in photovoltaic cells, signed a 10GW photovoltaic cell production base with Leshan Municipal People's Government. The project is divided into two phases.
The above giants are expected to rise continuously and hit record highs, but the share price of Amarton, as one of the real leaders, is seriously underestimated. Since the adjustment in July, it has lagged far behind the overall increase of the photovoltaic sector.
As the leader of photovoltaic industry in China and the best supplier of double glass module materials, Amaton is seriously underestimated and will become a dark horse of 202 1!
Business scope: manufacture and sales of coated conductive glass for solar energy, atmospheric and vacuum coated glass products, energy-saving and micro-electronic glass and new solar material products, solar cell modules and system integration products; Design and installation of solar power station project, technical development and technical consultation of related materials and equipment;
At present, the main business includes solar photovoltaic antireflection glass, ultra-thin double glass components, photovoltaic power stations and other businesses.
Through 12 years of technical accumulation and precipitation, it has strong product competitiveness and technological innovation ability in the industry. The company has been rated as a national high-tech enterprise, a key high-tech enterprise of the National Torch Program and an innovative enterprise in Jiangsu Province. Relying on the company's technology center, Jiangsu Science and Technology Innovation Team, Jiangsu Photoelectric Glass Key Laboratory, Jiangsu High-transmittance Photovoltaic Glass Engineering Technology Research Center, Jiangsu Solar Cell Module Functional Materials Engineering Center, Jiangsu Enterprise Technology Center, Jiangsu Postdoctoral Innovation Base and other provincial key R&D institutions have been established. In 20 18, the company was also successfully selected into the cultivation plan of innovative leading enterprises in Jiangsu province. Up to the reporting period, the company participated in drafting national standards 13 and industry standards 14 in photovoltaic field, including 8 national standards and 5 industry standards that have been released and implemented; There are 85 valid patents, including 27 invention patents, 54 utility model patents and 4 design patents.
For many years, the company has won the outstanding achievement award of listed photovoltaic enterprises in China, the sustainable development project of the United Nations Development Programme, the outstanding contribution award of the China Photovoltaic Leaders Innovation Forum, the award of the best material supplier of double glass modules, the outstanding photovoltaic material enterprise of the year, the top ten distributed photovoltaic module brands in China in 20 18, the AEO certified enterprise certificate, the Changzhou Mayor Quality Award, the star enterprise and other honorary titles. Amaton brand has become an international first-line brand. Leading enterprises that truly master the core technology.
Amaton: It has become one of the most important suppliers of Tesla roof in global solar, and its technology has been fully recognized by Tesla. In 20021year, Tesla will launch a global strategy for solar roofs. Amaton will make huge profits, and the demand for orders will be in short supply. After actively expanding production, the performance of 202 1 2022 is expected to increase by 2-3 times.
Tesla has planned a set of energy production, storage and use schemes for families, from using solar roofs to using energy storage to store surplus electricity, and then using new energy vehicles to travel.
Musk believes that expanding this family-based model to the whole world, supplemented by centralized solar power generation, can solve the whole energy and environmental problems.
20 19 has become a qualified supplier of Tesla. We began to provide them with solar tile glass in large quantities step by step, and the contract amount was kept secret because the two sides signed relevant confidentiality agreements. As an internationally renowned enterprise, the company becomes one of its qualified suppliers, which is conducive to enhancing the brand influence and core competitiveness of the company's products and will have a positive impact on the company's operating performance.
Amaton provides glass tiles for Tesla roofs. In 2020Q3, Tesla's rooftop photovoltaic was deployed in the United States with 57MW, three times that of Q2, and it plans to expand its rooftop photovoltaic business to Canada. Tesla's delivery target for rooftop photovoltaic business is 1000 sets/week.
In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of11540,000, a year-on-year increase of 4 1%, and a net profit of 70 million, a year-on-year increase of 40.47%.
Q3' s single-quarter operating income was 4120,000, up 38% year-on-year, and non-net profit was deducted from 25 million, up 350% year-on-year.
Gross profit margin: 17.5%, with an industry average of 30%.
Many investors may have noticed this anomaly, and Amaton's gross profit margin is lower than the industry average.
Let's talk about another photovoltaic glass faucet: Follette, whose current market value is 60 billion+,which is almost 10 times that of Amarton. (Aimaton ultra-thin and high-efficiency antireflection and antireflection photovoltaic glass was recognized as a single champion product by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and its technical level ranked first in the industry)
Photovoltaic glass includes the production and deep processing of original glass plate.
Follette is one of the largest manufacturers of photovoltaic glass plates in China, with a market share of about 25%. Another oligarch is Xinyi Solar, which is listed on the Hong Kong stock market with a market share of about 30%. At present, the market value of Hong Kong stocks exceeds 100 billion.
Amarton lost production capacity without the original glass plate. Follette and others began to manufacture only primary photovoltaic glass sheets, and later entered the glass deep processing industry one after another, thus having the advantages of the whole industrial chain of photovoltaic coated glass.
But Amaton needs to buy original glass for further processing. When the industry is booming, it is difficult to buy original glass. The supply of raw materials is restricted by upstream enterprises, and the gross profit margin is squeezed. Therefore, the gross profit margin of Follette's photovoltaic glass is much higher than Amaton's, which is the reason.
To this end, Amaton invested in the construction of a raw glass production base in Fengyang, Anhui Province, in which the first 650-ton/day furnace started to supply raw glass to the company normally in April 2020, and the other two furnaces in the second phase are also under construction and may be put into operation next year.
Fengyang Silicon Valley's original film production capacity is heavy, the original film supply is sufficient, and the market share is greatly improved. In 2020, the company expects the shipment of photovoltaic glass to be 40 million+1 10,000 square meters, accounting for about 5.7% of the market share. After the two kilns under construction are put into operation in 202 1, the original production capacity will reach1.200 million square meters, and the deep processing capacity will be1.500 million square meters when the original purchased products are superimposed. The annual delivery capacity of coated photovoltaic glass considering the output will reach 1.
With the increase in the supply of original films, the company's gross profit margin will gradually increase.
Net interest rate: 6.4%, with an industry average of 4%.
ROE: 3.3%, with an industry average of 5%.
R&D expenses: 30.67 million in the third quarter of 2020, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%.
Sales expenses: 7.34 million in the third quarter of 2020, down 76% year-on-year.
Amaton's sales expenses are the lowest in the industry!
Explain that the company doesn't have to go out to find customers at all, and customers will come to you automatically. The side reflects that the prosperity of photovoltaic glass is very high, and the company's scientific and technological level is ahead of the industry.
On June 5438+065438+1October 65438+May, 2020, Ayrton announced that it had signed a sales contract with Trina Solar for photovoltaic coated glass. The two sides bargain every month. The performance period of this contract is from 2020 1 October1kloc-0/to February 20221. It is estimated that the total contract amount is about 26,543.8 billion yuan (including tax), accounting for 65,438+077.31%of the company's audited operating income in 2065,438+09.
The performance in the next two years is very certain, which does not include the increment of Tesla orders and the increment of the global market after the signing of the China-EU trade agreement.
On the whole, it is estimated that the company's revenue from 2002/kloc-0 to 2022 will be 4.08 billion yuan and 6.72 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of about 15 times, which is of great investment value.