How to solve the railway debt

Ma Guangyuan/Independent Economist, Doctor of Economics.

It is said that it is necessary to market-oriented financing and change the "state-owned gene" of railways by attracting private capital for market-oriented operation.

On the afternoon of March 13 and 14, China Railway Corporation was formally established, which marked the end of the era of "Iron Boss". While the separation of government and enterprise in the railway management system brings benefits, there is also a problem that needs to be solved: the huge debt of the former Ministry of Railways has also been taken over by the Railway Corporation. In this regard, some scholars said that "such a huge debt is beyond the digestive capacity of any market-oriented enterprise."

Where does the huge debt come from?

According to official data, as of the third quarter of 20 12, the debt of the Ministry of Railways was 2.6 trillion yuan, the asset-liability ratio reached 6 1.8 1%, and the loss was 8545438+0 billion yuan. Obviously, the key to the smooth market operation of China Railway Corporation in the future lies in how to deal with this huge debt. In the plan approved by the State Council, although there are clear policies on the state-owned assets income and tax before the Ministry of Railways dissolves debts. However, as for the specific solution to the debt, it only means that under the overall coordination of the central government, various measures will be taken to properly handle it, and the Ministry of Finance will work with relevant state departments to study and put forward specific solutions.

Judging from the historical changes of China railway debt, most of the railway debt is accumulated by the railway sector through loans, bond issuance and various short-term financing. Since 2005, the scale of railway construction and debt has expanded dramatically. At present, the dominant investment and financing mode of railway construction is to set up a joint venture railway project company at the provincial level. Except for some capital raised by local governments, the Ministry of Railways is responsible for about 80% of the capital. The investment in railway infrastructure soared from 53.2 billion yuan in 2004 to 700.9 billion yuan in 20 10, and its debt scale also increased rapidly to nearly 2.6 trillion yuan at the end of 20 12. Although on the surface, about 70% of railway debt is long-term debt, in fact, due to the losses of high-speed rail and passenger transport, the pressure of short-term debt and annual debt service is even greater. If the annual investment in railway infrastructure in 20 13 years remains above 500 billion yuan, by the end of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the debt balance of the railway head office will reach 4.2 trillion yuan, and the annual interest payment will exceed 300 billion yuan. If the debt problem is not properly solved, it will affect the normal operation of the newly established railway corporation, and the railway construction funds will face great financing difficulties in the future.

Comprehensive consideration, global solution

Calmly speaking, the debt of the railway sector, as the state solves the debt of state-owned enterprises and digests the non-performing assets of banks, cannot be paid by the finance. The state finance is unable to write off trillions of bad debts. However, if there is no corresponding policy and debt restructuring plan, according to the current balance sheet and future profit forecast of the railway corporation, the railway corporation will soon face debt default. There should be a comprehensive solution acceptable to all parties to solve the huge debt of the railway sector.

Based on this, the author puts forward the following suggestions:

Before the establishment of the railway corporation, the stock debt should still be equal to the national debt.