According to industry insiders, in recent years, the central level has repeatedly emphasized that "housing is not speculation", implementing the main responsibility of cities, and demanding accountability for cities with poor regulation. High-level intensive voice, strengthening market order management and rectification, is intended to urge the market to consolidate the long-term and stability of the regulation effect and protect reasonable housing demand.
The central level frequently mentions real estate.
Since 202 1, the attitude of real estate regulation has become more and more clear. On July 30th, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting pointed out that houses should be used for living, not for speculation, to stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Accelerate the development of rental housing and implement supporting policies such as land use and taxation.
On July 29th, the day before the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting, Ni Hong, Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, interviewed the heads of Yinchuan, Xuzhou, Jinhua, Quanzhou and Huizhou, and asked all localities to enhance their work enthusiasm, initiative and creativity, so as to ensure the goal of stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations. Decisively take measures to implement two-way regulation of supply and demand, standardize market order, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Together with 202 1 3 cities in the first half of 2002 18 cities have been interviewed and supervised this year.
Li, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that the interview of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development with cities whose housing prices have risen too fast is an important part of the long-term mechanism of "one city, one policy", which has gradually become the main mode of regulation since 20 19, requiring local governments to assume the main responsibility of controlling the rate of housing price increase and maintaining the smooth operation of the real estate market. The interview further shows that hot third-and fourth-tier cities will be gradually incorporated into the regulatory system.
In addition to continuous interviews with cities with high housing prices, on July 23, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other eight departments also issued the Notice on Continuing to Rectify and Standardize the Order of the Real Estate Market, pointing out that the work of rectifying and standardizing the order of the real estate market will last for three years, focusing on rectifying outstanding problems in real estate development, housing sales, housing leasing, property services and other fields that are strongly reflected by the people and highly concerned by the society.
On July 22nd, the central government held a video conference to speed up the development of affordable rental housing and further improve the regulation of the real estate market, and also pointed out that we should attach great importance to new situations and problems in real estate work. We should firmly grasp the key of real estate finance, strictly manage the "three lines and four files" financing of real estate enterprises and the concentration of real estate loans of financial institutions, and take the development of affordable rental housing as the focus of housing construction during the 14 th Five-Year Plan.
Chen Xiao, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, said that real estate development enterprises, intermediaries, leasing enterprises, property service enterprises, financial institutions and the media should be informed to conduct market supervision in all directions and from multiple angles, so as to implement the goal of "no speculation in housing" and "three stability". In addition, it is proposed to establish an institutionalized and normalized rectification mechanism and strengthen supervision, evaluation and assessment. It is expected that more flexible policy-making and precise regulation will become the key words for the next step of property market regulation.
Full coverage of local real estate regulation and control
With the continuous reaffirmation of the central housing-related regulation signal, local regulation has been comprehensively upgraded again. Recently, Zhejiang held a symposium on real estate work, pointing out that it is necessary to fully understand the new situation and problems in the current real estate market, further improve the political stance, earnestly fulfill the main responsibility, improve the level and quality of work, and take effective measures to solidly promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
The meeting pointed out that the comprehensive use of land, finance, taxation and other means of regulation and control, and jointly play the role of government regulation and market regulation; Promote the balance between supply and demand and the balance between occupation and residence, and implement differentiated housing credit policies; Enhance the predictability of regulatory risks, open up data blocking points of various departments, realize dynamic data management and real-time monitoring, prevent project risks and credit risks, and improve the ability of accurate analysis and risk prevention and control.
Prior to this, Hangzhou has just released a new round of regulatory policies to further strengthen housing purchase restrictions, improve the sales management of new commercial housing, and standardize market order. For example, the housing purchase policy for families with less than five years of household registration has been tightened. On the basis of the previous purchase restriction of 1 set, urban social security shall be paid continuously for 24 months within the scope of purchase restriction in Hangzhou from 2 years before the date of purchase. For the non-registered population, upgrade to 4 years before the purchase date, and pay urban social security or personal income tax continuously for 48 months within the scope of purchase restriction in Hangzhou. In terms of newly-built commercial housing, if the ratio of the number of registered families who are interested in buying houses to the number of publicly-sold houses is greater than or equal to 10: 1, families without houses and ordinary families will be ranked according to the number of months of social security payment, and families with high-level talents will be ranked according to the talent categories B, C, D and E from high to low, and talents in the same category will be ranked from high to low according to the number of months of social security payment, and will be selected for notarization according to a certain proportion.
Jinhua clearly implements the restrictions on residential sales and notarized lottery sales, and requires ten aspects of regulation and control, such as strengthening the price supervision of second-hand residential houses, strengthening financial supervision, strictly renaming management, and implementing the main responsibility.
Huizhou, which has just been interviewed, has also accelerated a new round of regulation. On August 9th, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Huizhou issued the Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in our city, which controls the new housing market from the aspects of restricting purchases, limiting prices, restricting sales, optimizing land auction rules, pre-sale system of commercial housing, and strictly checking the sources of funds for purchasing houses. This is also the first time that Huizhou has enabled both purchase restriction and price restriction at the same time, and has continued to sell for three years, with unprecedented regulation and control.
Beijing, whose policy has not been loosened, once again "patched" and "blocked loopholes". On August 5th, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Announcement on Further Improving the Purchase Restriction Policy of Commercial Housing", pointing out that if the couple divorced and the number of houses owned by the original family before the divorce did not meet the provisions of the purchase restriction policy of commercial housing in this city, neither party may purchase commercial housing in this city within 3 years from the date of divorce.
Chengdu issued the "Notice on Strengthening Gift Management and Optimizing the Priority of House Purchase Qualification Examination" to "prevent obtaining priority through household registration and social security, and obtaining house purchase qualification through gift".
In addition, the second-hand housing reference price policy has also become an important means of regulation in many cities. In the early morning of August 2, Dongguan issued the "Eight Articles in Dongguan" New Deal, pointing out that Dongguan will speed up the establishment of a second-hand housing transaction guidance price release mechanism on the basis of the early release of active second-hand real estate online transaction prices, guide commercial banks to rationally issue second-hand housing loans, and intensify the rectification of the phenomenon of false listing prices. On July 26th, Wuxi Real Estate Market Management Monitoring Center formed the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in this city on the basis of investigation and analysis.
On July 9, Shanghai issued a new second-hand housing policy. On the basis of housing verification, it is necessary to intensify the verification of price information, and houses that fail to pass the price verification shall not be released to the public. On July 8, Xi 'an issued the Notice on Establishing the Release Mechanism of Reference Price for Second-hand Housing Transactions, clearly pointing out that relevant institutions in all aspects of second-hand housing transactions should take the reference price of second-hand housing transactions as a reference.
The regulation effect of second-hand housing guidance price is remarkable. According to the statistics of Yiju Research Institute, in Shenzhen, the first city in China to implement the reference price system for second-hand housing transactions, the price of second-hand housing fell by 10936 yuan/square meter in the first half of the year, and the price shrank by 15%. At the same time, in the cities that implement the second-hand housing price guidance policy, the transaction volume shows a significant downward trend.
In addition to the actual reference significance of the price, the reference price of the second-hand house actually limits the buyer's use of leverage. Zhuge Lianxin, an analyst at Zhong Da Securities, said that although the second-hand housing reference price mechanism does not require the actual transaction price to be based on the reference price, buyers and sellers can still negotiate the transaction price themselves; However, when commercial banks issue second-hand housing loans, the reference price of second-hand housing shall prevail. If the transaction price is higher than the reference price, the down payment ratio of buyers to buy second-hand houses will actually increase. She said that the increasing financial pressure of buyers has also become an important factor to promote the sharp decline in the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen.
The real estate market will run smoothly and healthily.
On August 7, Shenzhen officially reported the latest situation of the "Deep Housing Management" case. After several rounds of rolling investigation and regulatory verification, up to now, * * * found that 265,438+55 million yuan of operating loans illegally flowed into the real estate sector. From the red line of mortgage, to the price control of second-hand houses, to the comprehensive regulation of the real estate order and the improvement of the security system of affordable rental housing, the real estate industry in China has entered a new round of regulation cycle and gradually formed a closed-loop supervision. The stability of the real estate market is inevitable.
"The central government has tightened the regulation of real estate, and this time it is different." Lu Ting, chief economist of Nomura International (HK) in China, said that since 2020, the central government has successively introduced "three red lines" to control the debt growth of real estate developers and "two red lines" to curb bank real estate loans. This year, the crackdown on commercial loans and consumer loans illegally flowing into the housing market has been intensified, and the supervision of shadow banking financing terminals (such as trust loans and entrusted loans) of housing enterprises has been further tightened. "There are indications that China real estate will no longer take the old road and will not lift various restrictions on the property market." He said.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that compared with the self-inspection in April, the amount of investigation in Shenzhen was 42 times more, which actually reflected that the regulation was really different.
Zhang Dawei said that through combing the real estate regulation in 20021year, a very obvious feature is that under the "one city, one policy" of real estate regulation in the past few years, the central government has once again started the intensive release policy, especially the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the central bank have continuously increased the real estate regulation policy, and the regulation methods, intensity and details have been obviously upgraded. The "toolbox" of regulation and control has been continuously enriched, and the central real estate regulation and control plan has been intensively introduced to strengthen the prudent management and establishment of real estate finance.
"It is absolutely impossible to have the illusion that the real estate market will only rise and fall." Some insiders admit that the central level is starting from long-term regulation step by step, and the industry needs to face the reality, and the real estate regulation will still be stricter in the future.
Yang Kewei, a researcher at Kerry Research Center, predicts that the accountability mechanism of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will be continuously strengthened in the next step, and more third-and fourth-tier cities with overheated real estate and high housing prices will be included in the supervision system; It is also a high probability event to regulate and overweight the interviewed cities. "Based on the judgment that regulatory policies tend to be refined and high-frequency, cities with new policies have been regulated in the early stage, such as Nanjing and Wuhan. If the effect fails to reach the target after implementation, or new situations and problems arise, it is not impossible to further strengthen regulation and supervision. "
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, said that with the continuous promotion of real estate regulation and control, the comprehensive standardization and rectification of real estate order, and the improvement of security systems such as affordable rental housing, China's housing market will fully realize "living without speculation" and social residents will realize "living and living" and accelerate the process of building a well-off society in an all-round way.