First of all, the traditional formula for calculating settlement rate is controversial.
The settlement rate can be calculated on a monthly, quarterly and annual basis, which is an important indicator for establishing the company image externally and evaluating the management of insurance companies at all levels internally. Therefore, whether from the practical or theoretical point of view, it is necessary to calculate the claim rate scientifically and reasonably in order to truly reflect the work efficiency of insurance companies in a certain period, especially the claim progress of the claim department. At present, the formula for calculating the settlement rate is as follows:
Closing rate = closing number/(closing number+final closing number) × 100%
After analysis and test, it is not difficult to find that there are at least three mistakes in this formula. First, from the statistical principle, the number of solved projects is a periodic index, while the number of unresolved projects is a point index. It is not appropriate to add them directly to the denominator of the formula and divide them directly by the fraction. That is to say, because of their different nature, the two indicators of solved projects and projects to be processed are not additive and comparable at all. Second, in the first few months of the year, because the claim settlement work has just begun, the number of "closed cases" is small, while for insurance companies that have been operating for many years, the "open cases" are basically a relatively large number with little difference throughout the year. Therefore, when the settlement interest rate is calculated by this formula on a monthly or quarterly basis before the end of the year, the settlement interest rate calculated at the beginning of the year is relatively small, which cannot truly reflect the actual situation of the current claimants and insurance companies. Third, when calculating the claim rate of newly-opened insurance companies, or when calculating the claim rate of insurance companies with no outstanding claims in the previous year, because the value of "number of outstanding cases" is 0, the formula becomes:
Closing rate = number of closed cases/number of closed cases × 100%
At this time, the calculated settlement interest rate is always 100%, and the result is obviously wrong.
In addition, several different settlement rate formulas have appeared in other documents, mainly including:
Closing rate = cumulative number of closed cases this year/cumulative number of closed cases this year × 100%( 1)
Settlement rate = number of claims settled this year/(number of claims settled this year+number of claims settled at the end of last year) × 100%.
(2) Obviously, the formula (1) is only applicable to new companies or insurance companies with no outstanding claims in the previous year. It is impossible for an insurance company that has been operating for many years to have no outstanding claims in the previous year at the beginning of the year, so the formula (1) is wrong at this time. In fact, the key point of the formula (1) is that the denominator "cumulative number of cases filed this year" only considers the number of new cases established by the company, but not the outstanding claims of the previous year, while the numerator "cumulative number of cases closed this year" obviously includes the outstanding claims of the previous year, which makes the numerator denominator of the formula incomparable. The error of formula (2) is the same as the traditional current formula, that is, the period index and time index in the numerator denominator are not added, so the calculation result is still incorrectly displayed as: the settlement rate calculated at the beginning of the year is too small, and the settlement rate calculated by the new insurance company is 100%, and so on.
Second, the "improved formula" of the settlement rate calculation formula is still not perfect.
At present, some people have put forward an improved formula for the mistakes in the above settlement rate calculation formula. Among them, Insurance Research published the article "Scientifically Setting Settlement Rate Indicators for Fine Management" written by Comrade Zhou Dejun in issue 1 1 in 2004, which well analyzed and pointed out the mistakes in the current settlement rate calculation formula and obtained the "improved formula" of the settlement rate calculation formula. However, it was found that the so-called "improved formula" did not really improve the mistakes in the original prescription, but continued part of it. The "improved formula" of this article is as follows:
Closing rate = closing number/(closing number+closing number) × 100%(3)
Among them, the values of a are 1, 2, ..., 12 in turn with the progress of time. There is no doubt that formula (3) does improve the original settlement rate formula. But comparing the three errors of the traditional formula mentioned above, it is not difficult to find that formula (3) only solves the problem that the closing rate at the beginning of the year is too small, and other errors are still unresolved. First, the "number of items to be processed" is a time indicator, and the revised "number of items to be processed × A/ 12" is still a time indicator, and the two are still not suitable for direct addition and comparison. Second, when calculating the settlement interest rate of the new company, we will see the error of this formula more intuitively. For example, a newly-started company filed a case that year 1 month 1200, with 900 judgments in the same period. Obviously, the company's settlement interest rate at this time should be 900/1200; 75%, but according to the above "improved formula", it becomes 9001(900+300/12) = 97.3%, which is quite different from the actual result. Thirdly, formula (3) does not really solve the problem that the closing rate index at the beginning of the year is too small, because on the one hand, as mentioned above, "the number of unresolved cases × A/ 12" is still a time index and should not be directly added to the period index "the number of resolved cases". On the other hand, the closing rate calculated in this way does not conform to the real situation and cannot objectively reflect a company at that time.
Third, the idea of correctly calculating the settlement rate
In fact, according to the principle of statistics and the actual situation of insurance claims, we can get the idea of calculating the claim rate correctly as long as we look for ways to solve the problems in the current formula for calculating the claim rate: First, the claim rate is a structural relative index, reflecting the relationship between the part and the whole, in which "the whole" is all the cases faced by an insurance company at that time and "the part" is all the cases that have been closed. With the passage of time, the "whole" and "part" should be bigger and bigger, that is, they should be constructed into period indicators to add and compare. Second, the "part" here is the closed case, that is, the case that was closed when the index was calculated, and the "whole" case can be divided into two parts, that is, the creditor's rights newly established in that year and the creditor's rights that were not closed last year, which are called "the cumulative number of cases established this year" and "the number of cases not closed at the beginning of the year" respectively. Three, the number of open cases at the beginning of last year or "the number of open cases at the beginning of last year" refers to the number of open cases carried forward from the end of last year to the beginning of last year. This figure is a fixed value rather than a time indicator. When calculating the settlement rate, the number of open cases at the beginning of the year is allocated to 12 months of a year, so that the settlement rate indicator can be calculated every month and quarter according to the time progress. According to the above ideas, a new calculation formula of settlement rate index is proposed as follows:
Closing rate = cumulative closing rate this year/(cumulative closing rate this year+closing rate at the end of the year× a/12 )×100% (4)
Where a: 1, 2, ..., 12.
It should be said that Formula (4) solves the problem of calculating the claim rate and can truly reflect the claim progress of insurance companies. Now, in contrast to the shortcomings in the current formula, we analyze them one by one as follows: First, among the three indicators of numerator and denominator, "the cumulative number of cases solved this year" and "the cumulative number of cases solved this year" are indicators of the same period, while "the number of unsolved cases at the beginning of the year" is a fixed number, which is additive and comparable. Secondly, it solves the problem that the index value of closing rate at the beginning of the year is too small in the original calculation formula; Third, as a special case, when calculating the exchange rate index of newly-established companies, because there is no outstanding compensation left over from the previous year, that is, the outstanding amount at the beginning of the year is zero, the formula becomes:
Closing rate = cumulative number of cases closed this year/cumulative number of cases filed this year × 100%.
Its numerator and denominator are two indicators in the same year and the same period, and also fully reflect the relationship between part and whole, so the calculation result is more intuitive and reasonable.
Further reading: How to buy insurance, which is good, and teach you how to avoid these "pits" of insurance.