Statement performance and dividends are the most concerned intuitive indicators for minority shareholders. Judging from the semi-annual report, Gree, Midea and Haier are as follows:
Gree: Earnings per share 1.06 yuan and revenue of 70.602 billion yuan, down 28.2 1% year-on-year and up137.7% quarter-on-quarter; The net profit was 6.362 billion, down 53.73% year-on-year and up 208.4% quarter-on-quarter. The net assets per share is 65,438 +08.89 yuan, the return on net assets is 5.57%, the cash flow per share is -0.75 yuan, and the dividend per share in the interim report is 65,438 yuan+0 yuan. Revenue and net profit exceeded expectations because the semi-annual report forecast met expectations.
Midea: earnings per share was 2.0 1 yuan, and revenue13971900 million, down 9.47% year-on-year and up 39.43% quarter-on-quarter; Net profit13.928 billion, down 8.29% year-on-year and up 89.55438+0% quarter-on-quarter. The net assets per share is 65,438+04.98 yuan, the return on net assets is 65,438+03.03%, and the cash flow per share is 2.63 yuan. The interim report does not pay dividends. Revenue and net profit fell less than expected, and no dividends met expectations.
Haier: Earnings per share was 0.42 yuan and revenue was 95.728 billion yuan, down 4.29% year-on-year and up 265,438+0.89% quarter-on-quarter; The net profit was 278 1 billion, down 45.02% year-on-year and up 59.8 1% quarter-on-quarter. The net assets per share is 7.28 yuan, the return on net assets is 5.68%, and the cash flow per share is -0.08 yuan, without dividends. Revenue fell less than expected, net profit fell more than expected, and no dividends met expectations.
Through the intuitive comparison of the three data, Gree and Haier performed poorly, Midea performed best, with the smallest decline in revenue and profit, good cash flow and the highest return on net assets. The biggest increase of the stock price during the year was 20.65%, and the market value was 493.37 billion, which indicated that the market predicted ahead of time and gave a positive response to some extent.
Second, the comparison of shareholders.
Changes in the number of shareholders generally reflect the shareholder structure and recognition. Usually, the stock price will fall when the number of shareholders increases, and it will rise when the number of shareholders decreases.
Gree: There were 554,000 shareholders in the semi-annual report, an increase of 58,000 compared with 1 quarterly report; Holding institutions 1, accounting for 7%, 450 more than 1 quarterly reporting institutions, but the shareholding ratio increased by 0.66 percentage points; By August 28th, the ratio of foreign shares in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 16.68%, an increase of 1.8 1 percentage point compared with the beginning of the year, reaching a new record high. It is not difficult to find that institutions, retail investors and foreign investors are generally optimistic about Gree, but compared with the performance of Gree's share price during the year, due to the obvious dispersion of shareholders' shareholding except Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the number of retail investors has increased, and the participating shareholders are very hurt. The most likely factors are: First, many large investors who have invested in Gree in the medium and long term have withdrawn from Gree; Second, many institutional retail investors speculate on Gree in short-term fluctuations. In addition, Yao, the boss concerned by the old shareholders, did not reduce his holdings.
Midea: the number of shareholders in the semi-annual report was 654.38+084 million, a decrease of 63,000 compared with the first quarterly report of 654.38+0; There are 932 holding institutions, accounting for 7. 1 1%, 529 more than 1 quarterly reporting institutions, but a decrease of 1.76 percentage points; As of August 28th, the proportion of foreign shares held by Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 16.5 1%, down by 0.37 percentage points from the beginning of the year. It is not difficult to find that although the foreign shareholding of institutions and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect has decreased, large investors are optimistic because of the substantial reduction of US shareholders.
Haier: the number of shareholders in the semi-annual report is 16 1 10,000, which is less than that in the first quarterly report 1 0.4 million; There are 529 shareholding institutions, accounting for 10.69%, an increase of 39 1 home compared with1quarterly reporting institutions, and the shareholding ratio has increased by 2.24 percentage points; On August 28th, Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect held 8.9% of foreign shares, down 4.69 percentage points from the beginning of the year. It is not difficult to find that foreign institutions reduce their holdings and domestic institutions increase their holdings, and large households are optimistic.
Judging from the trends of Gree, Midea and Haier in July and August, Midea and Haier are particularly strong, and the number of shareholders is likely to further decrease. The performance may be predicted in advance by some institutions and large households, or it may be learned through insiders.
Third, asset quality comparison.
Asset quality is the most concerned index for medium and long-term investors, which not only reflects the safety of assets, but also indicates the development prospect.
Gree: net assets per share 18.9 yuan; Goodwill is 326 million and intangible assets are 5.83 billion, totaling 665.438+56 billion, accounting for 96.76% of the semi-annual net profit; In the first half of the year, Gree's intangible assets were amortized by 62 million yuan, and its goodwill remained unchanged. R&D investment is 2.56 billion; Monetary funds129.6 billion, accounting for 39. 1% of the market value, which means that Gree has more cash support from 39 yuan for every 100 yuan invested; Deferred income tax assets amounted to 654.38+02.5 billion, corresponding to the profit storage adjustment pool of 83.3 billion. The overall asset security is very high.
Midea: net assets per share 14.98 yuan; Goodwill is 28.93 billion, intangible assets 156 billion, totaling 44.53 billion, which is 3.2 times the net profit of the semi-annual report; In the first half of 2020, Midea's goodwill was impaired by 560 million yuan, intangible assets were amortized by 505 million yuan, and the subtotal was 65.438+0.065 billion yuan. Considering that Midea's goodwill is mainly caused by the ultra-high premium acquisition of KUKA, KUKA's revenue and net profit growth in the past five years are far below expectations. In the first half of this year, Midea's robot business declined by 20.79%, the largest decline among all businesses. The risk of goodwill storm is huge, and in extreme cases it will take two years in vain; Under normal circumstances, it will continue to erode the profits of the United States for a decade or two. Midea's R&D investment is 44 1 100 million, mainly R&D; Monetary funds were 53.03 billion, accounting for 65,438+00.75% of the market value; Deferred income tax assets are 6.3 billion, corresponding to the profit storage adjustment pool of 42 billion. Asset security is not high.
Haier: net assets per share is 7.28 yuan; Goodwill is 2.4/kloc-0.40 billion, and intangible assets/kloc-0.70 billion, totaling 34.84 billion, which is/kloc-0.253 times of the semi-annual net profit; In the first half of the year, Haier's intangible assets were amortized by 0.9 1 billion, excluding goodwill. The assets are seriously flooded, and the risk of goodwill and intangible assets being mined is huge. In extreme cases, it will take more than six years. R&D investment is 2.94 billion; Monetary fund is 44 1. 1 billion, accounting for 28.85% of the market value; Deferred income tax assets are 654.38+0.43 billion, and the corresponding profit pool is 9.53 billion. Asset security is very low.
Compared with Gree, Midea and Haier, Gree's asset quality is very good, with the largest net asset per share of 18.9 yuan, which is 3.92 yuan more than that of the US and 3.92 yuan more than that of Herdo 1 1.62 yuan. Net assets per share are mainly the accumulation of historical profits. Under the existing accounting rules, it also includes some investment income, which is embodied in goodwill and intangible assets. Compared with the three, Gree has no risk of goodwill and intangible assets storm, and the profit storage and adjustment pool corresponding to deferred income tax assets is rich, which is 4 1.3 billion more than Herdo and 73.8 billion more. At present, under the domestic and international economic situation, Gree's cash assets are 654.38+029.6 billion, which is the historical peak. It is a veritable god of wealth, and there are more and better opportunities for investment and mergers and acquisitions in the internal and external markets of the industrial chain.
Another interesting thing is that Gree's initial investment in Wen Tai and San 'an was 3.3/kloc-0.70 billion and 2 billion respectively, but the semi-annual report showed that the book value at the end of the period was 4.5/kloc-0.60 billion and 2.864 billion respectively, with an increase of only 2.063 billion. But as of August 28th, in fact, Gree's book investment income in Wen Tai and Sanan was 654.38+0.39 billion and 654.38+0.9 billion respectively, totaling about 654.38+0.5 billion, exceeding the added value of 654.38+0.3 billion in the semi-annual report. If this investment is realized in about three years, it will increase 2.3 yuan's net profit per share.
Well, the above information shows that Gree's asset quality is good, and Mr. Dong has tried his best to adopt the most conservative accounting method, while Midea and Haier's asset quality is worrying, and the management still ignores or despises the risks of goodwill and intangible assets.
Four. Main business comparison
The main business reflects the company's core profitability, and the proportion of revenue and gross profit margin in domestic and foreign markets reflects the influence of domestic and foreign markets.
Gree: Air-conditioning revenue was 465.438+33.3 million, down 47.89% compared with the same period of last year; The gross profit margin was 32.05%, which was 3.97% lower than the same period of last year. The income from other businesses was 654.38+0.979 billion, an increase of 4654.38+0.73% compared with the same period of last year, and the gross profit margin was 2.63%, a decrease of 2.36% compared with the same period of last year. Gree's series of small household appliances began to exert their strength. The main export business accounts for 17. 1 1%, and the gross export margin is 12.58%. Domestic sales account for 54.42% of the main business, and the gross profit margin of domestic sales is 33.47%. Gree air-conditioning high-end brand positioning market recognition is high, and the domestic market has a huge impact on Gree.
Midea: air-conditioning revenue was 64.03 billion, down 65,438+00.37% from the same period of last year; The gross profit margin was 24.2%, which decreased by 7.88% compared with the same period of last year. Consumer appliances and robots decreased by 10.37% and 9. 1 1% respectively, and the gross profit margin was 3 1.6 1% and 19% respectively, up by 0.32% compared with the same period of last year, while robots decreased by 3.32%. It is very difficult for Midea's air-conditioning revenue to surpass Gree, but the decline in gross profit margin is more than twice that of Gree. Midea's exports accounted for 44.46%, and its gross export margin was 26.52%. Midea's domestic sales accounted for 55.54% and its gross profit margin was 24.79%. Midea's domestic gross profit margin decreased by 6.79%, while its export gross profit margin increased by 0. 14%. It is not difficult to find that Midea's performance growth in the first half of the year benefited from the contribution of the export market.
Haier: air conditioning169.95 million; 26.738 billion refrigerators and 0/970.6 billion washing machines; Overseas market revenue was 47 billion, up 0.6% year-on-year, accounting for 49% of the company's revenue, up 2 percentage points. Haier's overseas market has great influence.
Based on the comprehensive semi-annual report and relevant market public information, Gree's performance met expectations, and the overall decline of the two cities was normal. The interim dividend per share was 65,438+0 yuan exceeded market expectations and was financially safe. Considering Director Dong's live marketing in the second quarter, two live marketing trips in Ganzhou and Luoyang in the third quarter were effective, and the semi-annual report clearly stated that there was no need to make a large fluctuation forecast for the third quarter performance in advance. Considering that Gree's revenue and net profit increased the most in the second quarter than in the first quarter, it is expected that this situation will continue in the third quarter, and the third quarterly report and annual report are expected to resume growth; But the base is low, and the growth rate will be great next year. Considering the increasing participation of institutions in Gree, from the perspective of asset security and dividend yield, the continuous increase of domestic and foreign institutions in the market outlook may greatly increase. On the other hand, Midea, especially Haier's goodwill and intangible assets, is more and more at risk of being struck by lightning storms, and the overseas market income accounts for a large proportion, because the overseas epidemic began to spread in the third quarter, and the overall investment risk is greater.
Synthesize relevant market information, analyze the expected future development prospects through surface data, and keep the mentality of investing in Gree in the medium and long term unchanged. I believe that the darkest moment of Gree should have passed, and Gree will achieve greater and greater success in integrating online and offline marketing networks. The market share of small household appliances will continue to increase rapidly, and Gree air disinfection purifier will bring more and more surprises due to epidemic prevention and control factors at home and abroad. With the domestic attention to the development of chip industry, Gree's investment income in high-tech industries such as chips continues to rise.
As for Midea, if we look at the increase in the number of shares brought by the N-period equity incentive, the income of the management team is far greater than that of the minority shareholders. Considering the goodwill of Midea and Haier and the amortization risk of intangible assets, it is not worth participating in the medium and long term.
The risk of the stock market is unpredictable. Those who are predestined should operate from their actual risk-taking ability. Good luck with us! May the world war epidemic succeed at an early date!